Invasion of Ukraine: Why Doesn't Russia Concede Kursk and Negotiate Peace?

One of the problems with commercial drones is that they send an unencrypted signal that can be picked up by anyone. So the enemy is seeing what you are seeing. Worst case they folliow the drone back to your position.
The incredible number of drones used probably makes it impossible to modify all of them.

It was concealed in the war in Afghanistan because the US mostly used the first gen drones that were much closer to conventional military aircraft than commercial dronesā€¦ but the best/most important thing about the drone as a weapon is that itā€™s disposable. These things are unbelievably cheap as military equipment goes. Yes people can jam them but you can have as many as you want all on different frequencies if you really want, and by the time you know you have a drone problem and want to do something about it the drone has very likely already cost justified itself.

I think this is the last major armored conflict, the small recon/grenade drone is going to still be a major part of every battle doctrine on earth a century from now. Five years from now thereā€™s a good chance a drone is a core/standard part of every infantrymanā€™s kit like a shovel or a carbine. Very likely the single most important piece of gear he has with a lot of infantry operations just being about setting up positions to dispatch drones from with every soldier also being a qualified drone operator.

Modern artillery + cheap drones is just a crazy crazy combination.

The cyberpunk authors were writing about this in the 90s. Wait until weā€™ve figured out how to swarm drones just smart enough to identify a target and fire a few rounds or have a little explosion or hell dump a few ounces of a flammable liquid. Send out a thousand for a target and it doesnā€™t take many being successful to ruin someoneā€™s day. Probably a lot of money getting into drone defenses these daysā€¦ High resolution cameras that can pick them out automatically, or maybe sensitive microphone arrays that can spot them due to the noise they make? Interesting timesā€¦

Every countryā€™s navy seems kinda screwed right now. What do you do when the other guy can just fly drones into ports and sink submarines?

Uhh donā€™t have your major logistical base in an area vulnerable to air strikes from a few hundred km away?

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I assume every military is scrambling to figure out ways to jam or shoot down a drone swarm.

Where does Russia keep its nuclear subs? Seems like game over if one of them gets lost, no way they can continue fighing.

At least as far as the attack that damaged the sub other day what Iā€™ve read has said that was a British cruise missile and think they pretty specific that canā€™t use those on Russian territory. Not sure what sort of range the aquatic drones have though. Guess maybe they could sneak one onto a cargo ship somewhere and dump it out elsewhere

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1702717155521831010?s=20

Pregozin, now this. Working with Putin seems like a dangerous job. Hope Kim Jong Un is doing ok.

There were rumors recently that he buried his personal physician alive because he suspected him of poisoning him. There really isnā€™t any reason for Putin to kill his most loyal lapdog.

Anyway, if anything was putin his tea he is don for.

Fair enough, didnā€™t mean to imply Putin was involved. Just the general fact that if you lie down with dogs you are likely to get fleas.

Black Sea fleet really is fucking around and finding out

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1702965074141331891

Keep your subs underwater as much as possible?

Yeah subs have always been vulnerable when they are stationary and can be seen. I think the aspect of needing to defend ports, airfields, anything else which is a fixed place with super expensive military equipment is mostly independent of the nature of the assets being protected. Then the aspect of how these assets can evade detection and pursuit, counterattack, or otherwise protect themselves at sea or in the air is a separate problem and much more important in terms of their design and use.

The fact that Ukrainians can attack Sevastopol is irrelevant for like American subs which are going to doc in Raleigh or San Francisco or somewhere

I

c bb

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Saying things! Someone should have thought of that. Master strategist

Yeah those things being ā€˜weā€™re immediately ceasing all support/aid for Ukraineā€™. Followed by Trump saying it publicly, followed by him finding out he canā€™t actually do that, followed by him deliberately and illegally sabotaging the Ukraine aid process in public. End result being Ukraine gets fucked and we all say ā€˜ah well neverthelessā€™.

Fortunately Donald Trump has nearly 0 chance of being president again. He has no chance in a general election even with the electoral college. Heā€™s the melted candle version of the man who squeaked out a surprise win over a candidate much less likeable than Joe Biden in 2016, and more than half of the people in this country hate him with the heat of a thousand suns.

Itā€™s a weird timeline weā€™re living in. Nice of Trump to confirm that his second term would be exactly like his first.

Way too confident in this statement imo.

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Man I just donā€™t see it. He got obliterated in 2018, 2020, and then the GOP somehow didnā€™t get the Senate back with the most stacked map of all time in 2022. Overturning RvW snuffed out the already narrow path to victory the GOP barely managed to thread three times since 1992.

On the ground conditions are getting worse for the GOP fast. This is a different country than it was pre COVID and itā€™s a very different country than it was pre Trump. Itā€™s all weird now.

The 2020 election was very very close. Biden won by 3 states, each by a margin of under 1%. Pretty much every close state went Bidenā€™s way. That could very easily flip.

The most stacked map of all time is the one in 2024. Democrats losing 8 seats is not out of the question.

I think itā€™s really the only reason the Democrats have the senate now.

I thought so too, but then Trump got 11 million more votes the 2nd time. Iā€™m not sure itā€™s that different.
Iā€™ve certainly seen no evidence that demographic shifts will save us.

Absolutely, which is why I think the variance is way too high to say things like ā€œTrump has a near 0 chance of winningā€. Heā€™s absolutely drawing live now, and thereā€™s a lot that can happen in the next year.

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