Invasion of Ukraine: Why Doesn't Russia Concede Kursk and Negotiate Peace?

I haven’t read anything hinting at the dam being in danger of breaking from the current damage but it has to be a real concern if hit again. Dams aren’t built to withstand getting hit by WMDs over and over again.

https://x.com/Daractenus/status/1828340531396571513?t=DHbCubFTAy86gT7qp-zAbA&s=19

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1828461057259819137

Wow those refinery attacks really fucking worked. Normally if there’s one thing the Russian war machine doesn’t have to worry about it’s fuel.

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1828448783790702971

I know a lot is going on right now but it’s weird Ukraine seizing Russian territory isn’t a bigger story in the US. Like 5% of Americans know this is happening right now?

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1828490940450746723?t=xSnLeUmjmNZKFJk7Ft7Gbg&s=19

Well, that seems bad.

Is the territory Russia gained in Donbass more than the territory Ukraine captured in Russia? Hard to understand what’s going on but seems like we had a long time stalemate that has broken

https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1828944392092299400?t=vMeNT4odpw533b9RbgWkAg&s=19

https://x.com/War_Mapper/status/1830691518551564730

So this is going to end with Russia fully controlling the Donbas and Ukraine controlling Belgorod?

I have no idea what Ukraine is doing but they’re clearly doing something. There’s a lot of Ukranian military might off the board right now. It’s waiting for some trigger condition to happen. Also arithmetic suggests an awful lot of Ukranian recruits should be exiting training over the last 30 days through the next 30 days…

Where is everybody? If I was the Russians I would be extremely careful right now. This is the same exact military that is carrying out incredibly well supplied and tactically complex/efficient assault on Russia every second of every day. They aren’t surrendering, they aren’t out of troops, and they definitely aren’t out of ammo.

What is this based on? For example, it’s no secret that Ukraine is lacking manpower and equipment to form new armored brigades.

Maybe I take a too US centric view but I wonder if things have gotten weird as Ukraine maybe expected Trump to beat Biden and now things more up in the air? Like maybe expecting Trump to win they had planned to seize some Russian territory to help in what was expected to be an imminent negotiation?

Things seem to be going pretty well for Ukraine right now. The whole war is definitely entering the phase where one side is clearly winning and the other side is struggling desperately to make a desperate stop.

On a larger level I think we’re witnessing the beginning of colonization of Russia, an event made inevitable by their demographic decline + climate change + natural resources. There’s going to be very little recognizable left of the Russian culture as it exists in 2024 remaining in the world in 50 years.

I’d feel worse for them but the Russians remain some of histories nastier colonizers. They had one of the most brutal versions of serfdom far longer than just about anyone on earth, and when they did communism they did it in such a barbaric Russian fashion that it tainted the whole enterprise. The way they behaved toward literally all of their neighbors was positively British. All of this made possible by being an impossibly cold place with a resource extraction dominated economy. It’s about to be a lot less impossibly cold at a time when an awful lot of other places go from ‘almost too hot to sustain human life’ to 'without air conditioning humans can’t be here in the hot/wet season… seriously you have to have some kind of emergency plan with backup generators powering AC for vulnerable people if the power goes out it’s that hot.

It’s gonna get weird.

I am not sure this is true. Russia is still making small but steady gains in the East.
Budanov said that in the summer of 2025 or the beginning of 2026 the Russian economy/military won’t be able to sustain the war anymore. I take these public statements with a grain of salt. It’s also very much unclear how long Ukraine can sustain their defense, especially when it comes to manpower.

Videos from this ammo storage blown up in Russia recently are wild. It’s like Trinity size explosion

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