Middle Eastern Conflagration, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran

I mean Trump had one of their military leaders killed, and they just took it on the chin for all intents and purposes. The US can go toe to toe with just about anyone on a list of places we’ve done shitty stuff for geopolitical reasons.

If they wanted to we gave them the pretext to escalate and bait Trump into a war he couldn’t win that would have been catastrophic for American interests in the Middle East. They abstained.

Israel is carrying out a genocide. That’s the context right now. Hamas launched a barbaric terror attack and killed around 1,000 people, mostly civilian. Israel has probably killed more than 25,000 civilians in retaliation and shows no signs of slowing down. They hit an Iranian embassy in Syria and killed 16 Iranians.

Iran waited almost two weeks to retaliate, and in retaliating so far appears to have killed 0 people and injured 1.

So I think it’s pretty reasonable to call Iran a sympathetic party the last couple years. It doesn’t make them good guys by any stretch, but they’re showing more restraint than Trump’s US and Netanyahu’s Israel.

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https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1779291528063574219?s=19

Israel has wanted to strike at Iran’s nuclear capabilities for a while now. I’m going to go ahead and guess that that’s about to happen.

Maybe Biden can talk them down
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President Biden and his team, hoping to avoid further escalation leading to a wider war in the Middle East, are advising Israel that its [successful defense] against Iranian airstrikes constituted a major strategic victory that might not require another round of retaliation, U.S. officials said.

The interception of [nearly all of the more than 300 drones and missiles] fired against Israel on Saturday night demonstrated that Israel had come out ahead in its confrontation with Iran and proved to enemies its ability to protect itself along with its American allies, meaning it did not necessarily need to fire back, the officials said.

Here’s hoping.

We cannot break up with the Israeli’s fast enough.

Just looking at this from Bibi’s personal strategic position, provoking a war with Iran seems like a big win, if you ignore all the knock on effects.

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It’s always funny to read things like this and imagine the US response if some foolish country launched more than 300 missiles and drones at us.

It’s funny to read stuff like this and consider the US response to a country leveling a US embassy to kill our military leadership. Israel is free to do whatever they want, on their own… the US has no responsibility to support them and every single act Bibi takes makes it harder for the US to continue its support.

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Ok admittedly I don’t know the exact rules here, but I’m not aware of the USA using embassies and consulates as cover for their military command that’s part of an active war

Lol, I personally knew someone who “worked in the State Department” that I later found out was in the CIA. It’s THE quintessential cover used by all governments since forever, including involvement in proxy wars.

Pretty sure the “unofficial rule” on embassies is that you are allowed to kick out bad actors in embassies in your own country but that is about it. Russia still has an active embassy in the US that we don’t fuck with, ffs. Pretty sure all we do is ban people we think are spies.

Someone working in intelligence is very different than a literal military commander waging war against you. I don’t think Osama could have openly planned his shit in an Afghanistan embassy in Pakistan and we’d just be cool with it

Maybe Iran was doing that, but the fact that Israel claimed they are doesn’t move the needle one bit for me. Israel blew up hospitals that were supposedly Hamas command centers, and then shrugged when there was no evidence of that. They blew up volunteers bringing food to civilians in Gaza and claimed it was an accident that they hit three separate marked vehicles on a pre-cleared route.

They’re carrying out a genocide and lying through their teeth. How many civilians do they get to kill for every civilian killed in the terror attack? We’re past 25 to 1 now. And we’re supposed to take their word on what was going on in that embassy?

I mean shit, the US immediately washed its hands of that attack. That ought to tell you something. The European Commission and UN also condemned the attack on the embassy.

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Ok but is that even in dispute? He’s a leader of the Quds Force, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the USA, Canada, Saudi Arabia, etc… Every straight news site reports it as such.

The hospital stuff is entirely separate. That is at least disputed, but saying there’s ‘no evidence’ is hyperbole.

Thought this was interesting:

…it just doesn’t add up to me that Iran fired off that much hardware and was confident that few if any of them would find their targets in Israel. The U.S. also seems to have played a very big role in the result, perhaps as many as a third of the shootdowns with other Arab state,s likely shooting down a small number themselves. If it was just a performative light show I don’t think you’d need the U.S. to be that heavily involved.

What all of that would amount to is that Iran really struck hard at Israel but seems to have failed almost completely. I’m not sure this totally adds up to me. But at least for now it seems more credible to me than the other theory.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/follow-up-3

Yeah, I don’t buy that Iran’s plan here was for everything to get shot down. I buy that they only targeted military targets (Negev Air Force Base), but I’m sure the would have like to actually hit it.

How many hospitals did they even hit? It was definitely more than one. And even if there’s a command center under a hospital, that’s not a reason to blow up a hospital full of helpless civilians.

No clue, I know they violated Syria’s airspace, hit an embassy, and got condemned for it by a bunch of highly respectable third parties that would tend to back them over Iran nine times out of 10.

Like, they outnumber Hamas’ manpower about 15 to 1, they have a massive advantage in technology, and the only question in the outcome here is how much death, destruction, and genocide will be enough to satisfy Bibi. They absolutely do not need to be doing anything provocative outside Gaza.

Enough = whatever keeps him in power longer, so he doesn’t go to jail.

Seems relevant before declaring that Israel is completely in the wrong!

I can’t find any serious news outlet disputing the basic facts of what happened like you are here. Not even from Iran.

As for violating airspace… Syria has fired a lot of rockets into Israel. Why are you reflexively against Israel responding but OK with Iran responding?

You are also talking about Hamas for some reason, but this was a strike against Iran. A foe that is clearly a real peer.