Ok so then I agree they should bring those laws back or enforce them correctly. But I don’t think I 've seen anything regarding DJT or Tesla that I think should be illegal, nor do I think anything Keith Gill did was any issue.
Trying to ban meme stocking will basically just create another bifurcated set of rules. One for activist hedge funds where they are allowed to write letters and go on CNBC and influence the direction of stocks and another for individual investors who will not be allowed to do similar things on Reddit.
My dude… the courts and congress are owned by rich people. Crypto, more than anything, is just an end run around the laws against stock promotion which were never particularly strong.
It’s not like this is new stock promotion is exactly what Jordan Belfort was doing.
So interesting development here. One of my homebuilder stocks is DHI, they were off their high by about 12-13% because of the developments with inflation and expectations of rates being higher for longer. One of the reasons I held onto my homebuilder stocks despite my contrarian views on interest rates was that, long-term, I don’t think it matters. There’s a housing shortage and homebuilders that are well positioned should do quite well, sooner or later.
Anyway, DHI reported earnings today and despite rates remaining high…
Earnings +29% yoy
Revenue +14% yoy
Net sales orders +46% qoq, +14% yoy in volume and +17% yoy in value
Cancellation rate is down from 18% to 15% yoy
Net orders first six months +22% yoy in volume +24% yoy in value
Single-family rental home sales +34% yoy in value
Company has $1.3 billion of single-family rental property inventory
In the last 12 months, 6.6% of all single-family homes sold by DHI are for rental (this side of the business has just started ramping up the last year or so)
I don’t think we’re going to see a housing crash. People who can afford homes seem to be giving in on rates just staying higher, and thus prices don’t seem likely to come down even if rates remain higher - especially with investors buying up new builds to turn into rentals at current interest rates.
IMO if/when the rate drops OR housing prices drop at current interest rates, you’ll see individuals who can afford homes showing some serious FOMO and investors piling in as long as the deal is at least as good as it currently is.
Like, if investors are buying houses at high prices with high rates, why would they slow down their buying at lower prices and the same rate?
Only way we see a crash is if groups are overleveraged, run out of time to roll over loans, and have to dump inventory suddenly.
I shouldn’t be surprised at this point but Tesla mooning based on obvious horseshit from a guy who has never hit a single alleged timeline in the history of the company sure is something.
That said the company is way more successful than I ever thought possible. It might reliably make 10-15 billion dollars a year and a fair market value might be 50-75 billion. Which is really hard to achieve!
Yeah it’s hard to know for sure how to get the timing right. It does feel like there are a lot more catalysts for a share price collapse this year than in past years, but we also could see some sort of extinction burst before the bubble fully pops
What we really need is a low fee rebalanced portfolio that owns every S&P component close to equally. If someone figures out how to do that without spewing cash on slippage they’ll be the biggest hero in finance since Bogle.
The funny thing is at this point, the best thing to happen to TSLA (ousting Elon) would probably cause a big sell off. If he were gone and if were below $80 a share, I’d probably kick the tires.
In other news, I dunno how much of TSLA’s valuation is based on self driving, but it sure seems like Waymo (owned by GOOGL) is doing better than them? They’re operating self-driving taxis now.
Hard to get an exact answer on that since every ETF/mutual fund that does this has horrifying fees that ruin performance because of greedy managers and trading costs rebalancing the portfolio. Also it’s important to note that when your distribution is inherently unabalanced, and so is everyone else’s, you create a shitload of buying pressure that has nothing at all to do with the real world fundamentals of a stock, and this can create bubbles. If those bubbles haven’t popped yet the strategy that caused those bubbles to inflate is going to look better than it actually is.
I’ve got huge issues with the valuations of basically every mega cap in the US with very few exceptions. I think having an overly high valuation can cause significant problems in corporate governance. For instance I think the wave of tech layoffs of the last couple of years represents a huge collective fuck up by the big tech companies, which will ultimately prove to cause huge losses in real value for all of them… and the reason they happened was CEO’s defending their valuation at the expense of the companies moat.
almost all of TSLA’s valuation is based on Elon’s promises of unicorns, if they were valued like other car companies the stock would be maybe 20% of today’s price.
If TSLA had a monopoly on self-driving ability, maybe this premium would be justified but there’s nothing to indicate TSLA has any advantage at all in this department. All of the other stuff he’s promising is even more vapor than FSD.
GOOGL is still reasonably priced IMO. I’m still holding. As for the tech moats, they could buy them back if it becomes problematic. They’d overpay for the dangerous startups, but it wouldn’t be disastrous.
I really strongly disagree with this. If it was true Zuck would have owned Tiktok for at least 3 years. I don’t think it’s a given that you can buy the cat once its out of the bag anything close to 100% of the time. I also think Google’s entire product catalogue is massively enshittified to maximize earnings which is not a sustainable ongoing strategy. How many more times can you step on their core value proposition before people notice there are significantly better options? Serious question because I think we’re going to find out.
