We’re drawing to Biden voters withholding their support in polls because they’re pissed at him, then coming home. That’s basically it. I think there’s a decent likelihood of this, but it’s not great. And the fact that Dems have let abortion slip onto the backburner is not a good sign.
Polymarket has Trump at about 62/38 head to head with Biden. Seems about right to me.
Dems have a bunch of geriatric losers, GOP has a massive machine including total ownership of media, not great Bob
I suspect if scotus clearly rules Trump isn’t immune it might actually have similar impact to him getting convicted. (Not saying would be huge either way, but I think a lot of people will read that headline as Trump did the crimes)
I was thinking more that it might draw attention to his “I want to be dictator for a day,” statement and his “I could have my opponent killed by Seal Team Six,” argument and that could draw attention to him being a legit dangerous leader, for the numbskulls who forgot about 1/6 already. I assume the ones who think it was BLM are totally fucking hopeless.
So these are polls from only Top-15 (538) pollsters over the last three months. Why 15? That’s how long their pages are of rankings, and I wasn’t scrolling multiple.
YouGov Feb 25-27: Biden 44, Trump 44.
YouGov, Feb 18-20: Trump 43, Biden 42.
New York Times/Siena Dec 14: Biden 47, Trump 45.
New York Times/Siena Dec 14 (RV): Trump 46, Biden 44.
Marquette Feb 15 Trump 52, Biden 48.
Marquette Feb 15 (RV): Trump 51, Biden 49.
Marist Feb 1: Biden 48, Trump 47.
Suffolk Dec 26: Trump 44, Biden 43.
SurveyUSA Feb 2: Trump 49, Biden 44.
Beacon Research/Fox News Dec 13: Trump 50, Biden 46.
Avg: Trump +1.6
Perhaps not as doom and gloom as we feel like…
As much as it begrudges me to defend the Dems and their strategy we’re still 8 months away from the actual election so it seems fine to me to wait until it’s closer before you start banging that drum so that people don’t get desensitized.
I’m a recent-ish immigrant (citizen for less than 10 years), but I don’t think we’d end up in camps. As bad a this sounds there’s a lot of other boogeymen for Republicans to go after before they turn to legal immigrants.
That doesn’t make it any better for the most vulnerable groups, but I think your fear for you and your wife’s particular situation is over stated.
Doesn’t Biden have to be at least +4 to win the electoral college? Seems pretty gloomy.
I think the tipping point is probably going to be between 2.5% and 3%. But you could argue it’s worse. Hard to argue it’s better.
The final 2020 538 average had Biden up by 8 and he won by 4. The final 2016 538 average had Clinton up by 5 and she won by 2. We’re banking on an error approximately 8 points in the opposite direction of the error that occurred in 2016 & 2020 to pull out an EC win…
Mark Stern just made a great point on MSNBC. Forget the outcomes and look at the pace - anytime Trump wants SCOTUS to move fast, it does. Anytime he wants it to move slowly, it does.
I don’t think it’s a direct comparison. I think there are reasons to believe Trump voters are less shy now, and Biden voters are more shy at the moment. Or, if not shy, annoyed with their own candidate. Current polling is Trump +1.6, and that’s not the entirety of 538 that’s just the Top 15 pollsters over the last 3 months. We need it to move about 4% over the next 36 weeks. So we need it to move an average of 0.1% per week.
Plenty of time.
I’d argue it’s worse.
In 2020 Biden was +4.5 nationally. That translated to a nailbiter election that wasn’t called until 4 days later. If Biden was +3.5, and the results were distributed evenly across all states, Trump would have won.
PS: And I don’t have faith that there won’t be some massive fuckery if the election comes down to a single state. Things might have been different in 2020 if the margin wasn’t 3 states.
Yeah those are both good points and extremely concerning.
They were literally some guys storming counting places in Atlanta and Philadelphia away from stealing the last one. They’re well aware of that now.
Everything is shit regardless of who wins so no need to sweat the results or the steal being successful this time.
Trump asked the NY appeals court if he could appeal while posting only $100M instead of the full judgement amount
Can’t agree with this sentiment, but I think this sentiment amongst a lot of people is going to be what lets Trump win.
SCOTUS scheduled the immunity arguments for the last possible day of this term - 4/25.
Why didn’t they schedule it the same day as the CO ruling?