If you vote to resolve a market incorrectly, you forfeit your tokens to correct voters. Assuming that holders will not torch their own money for no financial incentive is completely reasonable.
This kind of collective action is not realistic. Every dollar spent buying UMA tokens to vote for the loser will be lost. Either the attack fails and your tokens are redistributed to voters who resolved correctly, or it succeeds, thus destroying 100% of the value of the tokens. Whereas if the honest actors win, they receive the attackers’ tokens and those tokens would still be worth something. They might even increase in value since the system would have shown itself to be resilient to a major attack.
Maybe you could pile up enough contracts that the attack would be worth the very high cost, but you are definitely not gonna gofundme a few hundred milly from delusional trumpers.
In Trump admin 1.0 maybe, but I’m worried Trump 2.0 and the Republican project in general is about building an apparatus that’s immune from backlash. Ultimately what would have stopped that sort of thing in the past is having enough people in government who care about backlash and are responsive to it.
If you remove all capacity for shame from the people in charge, what happens then?
On the one hand,our next President Trump will work tirelessly to round up colored folks and put them in camps. On the other hand, golfing and watching tv.
They don’t want to give details because there is literally no workable plan. It’s no more plausible than building a wall across the entire southern border of the US.
What are you envisioning for the “round people up” part though? Literal door-to-door searches of every house and apartment in the counrty? Would they do this just in minority-dominated areas or everywhere? Thousands of Israeli-style checkpoints in every metropolitan area? I just don’t see it as remotely plausible. Even as a one-time operation, it would take months if not years, it would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and it obviously wouldn’t work.
I hear you guys, I just haven’t lost all my faith in the institutions of government yet. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I don’t want to believe the forces within the government or the people would go along with anything that radical.
Maybe within a couple of years I’ll be willingly showing my citizenship papers at a checkpoint every time I go to the grocery store, but I just don’t believe it.
I’ve lived in AZ for more than 30 years now. People here, even in the blue suburbs, have much more of a libertarian “leave me alone” attitude than I ever experienced on the east coast. I think it’s true throughout the mountain western states. Deference to government authority is just not the same, plus we have a lot of guns.
I’m concerned that if armed officers from the federal government started going door-to-door, demanding to be let in to search for “illegals”, the result would be a lot of people killed. As in, thousands and thousands of new Cliven Bundys being created pretty quickly.
I guess from there it devolves into either a Civil War scenario or a Handmaid’s Tale scenario, where a radical upheaval becomes the new normal before we even realize it’s happened.
I don’t think the horrors of a second Trump administration have to present themselves in such ostentatious ways that are impossible for average people to ignore. Unleashing hell on immigrants doesn’t have to mean going door to door, or putting up checkpoints all over the country. I think it’s far more likely that most middle-class citizens who don’t live near poor immigrants never have to directly see any of this at all. And like, I think we all know how much those “libertarians” who claim gun ownership is a necessity to protect against a tyrannical government are actually going to get off their ass to defend immigrants from getting deported (not at all). The Cliven Bundy anti-government type is only anti-government when a Democrat is in office; they’ll be signing up to get deputized by Trump’s deportation force!
So then the question is - when it’s easy enough for people who don’t follow the news to check out and ignore this stuff, and the government is intentionally stocked with people who are more immune to being shamed into changing their bad behavior in response to outrage from people who do, what’s going to stop them?
Most likely they’d target businesses where undocumented immigrants are most likely to work and have a hotline for assholes to report their neighbors. They’d probably also target apartment complexes and cheap housing in majority-immigrant communities, and they’d sweep up non-white homeless people for sure.
The American Immigration Council estimates that it would cost about $1 trillion to remove 13 million undocumented immigrants. Spread over four years, this would only be about a 4% annual increase to federal spending, and he’d probably be able to get some of that from defense spending given the war declaration he plans on using.
Of course if you add in the cost in lost tax revenue due to the recession it would cause, it gets astronomical.
On the other hand, if they kill the Department of Education, there’s the money right there.
Then Stephen Miller will just hire some people who will go along with it. It’s not like there aren’t a few million Trump voters who dream about cosplaying as border patrol and would relish the opportunity to make high five figures rounding up brown people.
I mean, there’s a lot of overlap between the people that might get into a shootout if the Feds knocked on their door and the people who want the brown people rounded up and kicked out, so I think they’ll be friendly with Trump’s deportation squad.
I’ll add this: there are a lot of immigrants who are not supposed to be deportable, who can legally be denied entry if they leave the country. So all the deportation squad has to do is illegally deport them (who’s going to literally physically stop them?) before a court can rule, and then the court will have to shrug and say there’s nothing to rule on and that person doesn’t have the right to return.
Especially once Trump invokes national security and the Alien Enemies Act, even green card holders could be deported and not allowed to return. Shit, even naturalized citizens.
Edit: Gun to my head and forced to guess, I don’t think it gets to the point of deporting green card holders and citizens en masse, but I do think it’s pretty likely we see 1M to 5M people deported in four years if Trump wins with some green card holders and citizens swept up in it.
