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This right here is a real “oh shit,” poll. This is a “Biden should drop out,” poll.
Pennsylvania GE
Trump 40
Biden 32
Other 11
SAME POLL:
Casey 38
McCormick 37
So it’s got the Senate race being tight, as we’d expect, and Trump is absolutely curb stomping Biden in the same poll.
That’s not likely to be an outlier. The question here isn’t whether Trump is currently ahead in PA, it’s whether most of the other come back to Biden and whether Trump gets less popular as he’s on people’s TV more.
It’s 500 people… what am I missing?
I mean how many polls of 500 would you have to run to find a Casey +1, Trump +8 result if the actual population-wide results were actually like Biden +2 Casey +3 or something like that?
Most (all?) of the big Trump wins would correlate to Casey losses.
I’d much rather see Trump +8, McCormick +5 or something. Then it’s way more likely to just be an outlier.
Pretty sure that is not how this works.
I highly doubt a poll showing a massive split like that is valid. Haven’t looked into it in detail, but 11% other with only 70% ish voting makes me question the validity more than anything else
