Maaaybe, but the power of incumbency is huge
What the Dems really need is charisma. Bill Clinton and Obama had it. Gore, Kerry, Hillary had zero. And sorry, Pete doesnât have it either.
Iâd argue Pete has some, but perhaps itâs more in terms of framing and how his speeches are written for him than in delivery. I think he frames issues really well and uses language on issues that reclaims territory for Dems.
Heâs not inherently likeable. At all. He comes off as the teachers pet nerd, very not good for appealing to anyone but technocrats. Iâll grant heâs incredible at framing, but thatâs a separate and less valuable skill.
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Yeah, the guy whoâs incredible at framing is probably best used somewhere behind the scenes at the DNC. I think in a perfect world the primary would have gone longer, more of his framing would have seen the light of day in debates with fewer people on stage, and then he would have ended up high up at the DNC injecting that framing into as many key campaigns as possible.
Iâm not joining the Pete Fan Club anytime soon, but heâs got plenty of charisma.
Lots of boomers love him.
I too have gone from being relatively comfortable that Biden was about a 7-2 favorite about 3 months ago to 50-50 at best now. Iâm in full polls mode and theyâve just been mostly bad, and the age thing that I thought was his main liability, I thought it would come into play later more but it seems like itâs already passed the point of no return for many voters.
I mean itâs always been âBiden has all the advantages BUT the economy can change everything.â And the economy has sucked in a way that everyone can feel but doesnât show up in the official stats, and sucked in a way that it will continue to suck for the foreseeable future, since thereâs no recession yet but inflation wonât stop until there is.
Democrats need someone who can articulate a vision to get out of the economic âmalaiseâ that can be both tied to the other legislative priorities in the Dem platform and can be sold to middle class white America in inspirational form. I am not sure what that message is. Fortunately Trump is no Reagan despite how his base treats him, because this feels a lot like the late 70s
I think people underestimating Biden ability to to campaign a little bit, he is a pretty likable guy. Personally I feel better about our chances if he going into knowing itâs going to be tough vs Hillary thinking was a slam dunk.
What it should be is full-blown class warfare. Itâs not going to be for obvious reasons.
The whole âeverything is fine, look at the numbers, weâre doing greatâ is a completely losing message in 2023 at least, anyone with a brain and a pulse can walk into a grocery store and see the price of everything has doubled from a year ago, rentâs up a lot, gas is up a lot. Meanwhile corporations are making record profits. Trumpâs going to come in and say âwerenât things better when I was aroundâ and the answer for a shitload of people will be âyes.â
like, what is bidenâs sell? I think people are way overestimating the effect of the criminal trials on the election. it will either be completely drowned out by misinformation or voters likely just wonât care. People already knew he was a criminal in 2016, 2020.
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I donât think class warfare is a winning message for Democrats in the Trump era. Youâre not going to pry working class rural whites away from Trump. Nor are you going to win over single issue guns and abortion voters with that message. Everyone else is already a Dem voter and certainly wonât be inspired by anyone in the Dem party going with that rhetoric. Additionally, anyone noteworthy enough to sniff a nomination is already rich and bought, so the message will rightfully come across as cynical.
You basically need a massive depression / recession that starts when conservatives are in power for such a message to work (so 1932 / 2008 conditions). Otherwise too many poor and middle class voters will be content to blame their problems on minorities, immigrants, and things like NAFTA.
I agree but itâs not just a Biden problem, what would be the the right message from any other Democrat candidate in 2024?
Letâs see the GOP push forward a candidate that isnât going to spend from now until the election shitting himself on national TV before we start panicking.
Gen Z and Millenials are super pissed yes but theyâre not going to vote GOP. The GOP blocked student loan forgiveness and got rid of abortion. They were losing with women before they got rid of abortion.
I agree things could be better, but all we really need to do is win so we can give the unions more time to percolate.
Thatâs what this next election is about: supreme court justices and organized labor. The politicians arenât going to solve any of this but they absolutely can make it worse.
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Negative campaigning is the only option, fortunately Democrats have a lot of ammunition there, even ignoring the lawsuits.
Like, remember when Trump promised to bring in the best people? Look at what heâs said about all the members of his original cabinet. Theyâre all incompetent losers. Remember when he said heâd repeal and replace Obamacare with something better? They had all 3 branches and did nothing, because they have no plan to fix healthcare. They should really hammer him on all the grifting and Jared getting 2 billion from Saudi Arabia because that is something easy for people to understand.
Run the tape of him talking about putting bleach and UV light into peopleâs blood along graphics of with the stock market dropping 8% a day.
The path to victory is still to make it about Trumpâs negatives and do it so much it sucks the air out of the room.
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Yelling at people that âthe economy is great, actuallyâ seems like something Dems will do. Itâs also a terrible message.
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The whole âbidenomicsâ thing is gonna bite him in the ass. What bidenomics? If the current state of things is something to be desired, holy shit this sucks for the vast majority of people. Completely tone deaf, and it doesnât make sense until you realize that the current democratic establishment is there to enrich the shareholders, not make the lives of people better - so by that metric, they really are doing fantastic.
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I guess historically having good unemployment numbers was such a priority that Rs invented âjob creatorsâ as a phrase but that has a built in assumption that having a job means you can buy what you need
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I think, âThe billionaires are fucking you and weâre going to tax them back to when they couldnât afford their own personal rocket ships and three superyachts each, one superyacht will do,â is a winning message.
Is a superyacht a thing? I donât know and I donât care. The upper middle class is starting to feel the squeeze, attack the billionaires.