This. Most of those 7 million votes were from CA.
Counter counter counter counter point we are an institute in a powerful death penalty
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The average person still thinks Biden is the one losing his faculties, unfortunately.
Felt like this a pretty dramatic shift very recent I wonder if he taking too much ambien or something
Is it though? I remember plenty of incoherent babble in 2020. Seems like heās just doing it more often now.
Maybe your right, itās all a blur
I looked it up. Biden was up 5 million votes in CA and 2 million in NY. That means the other 48 states in total were dead even.
If you remove all the 5"+ dicks, Iām about average
I missed the whole economic discussion but Biden really needs rate cuts, several of them, and not right before election day. Having rates so high is like economic dry powder.
If /when they drop quickly stocks will go up ā wealth effect. Mortgages will be more affordable, people who bought at the highest rates can refinance ā consumer sentiment. Business can increase CAPEX ā better job market. Housing market will be less frozen and more affordable.
It might hurt with things like price of food or the topline inflation number but I am convinced a lot of people feel the economy sucking due to the high rates and knock on effects. Biden should be pressuring the Fed and publicly blaming them for the economic pain a lot of voters feel despite the great numbers.
If the fed is using the CPI and other data to keep rates high and those numbers are disconnected from peopleās reality thatās bad on them and deserves a little blame shifting.
The fed is already projecting 4 rate cuts this year. Thereās also the incoming infrastructure bill spending that will start arriving to an increasing degree as the year goes on and projects that have already been greenlit start work.
Will rate cuts do anything tangible to peopleās feelings on the economy?
Congrats rich people!
Isnāt the housing issue primarily a supply problem, or do I have that wrong?
I really donāt think we should be pushing up inflation numbers right now.
I agree with all of this.
I think even if people donāt personally feel it they going to evaluate the president as better if all the news is talking about how awesome the economy is
Two housing supply issues
Not enough entry level being built. Plus whatever is going on with corporate buying and rentals.
But I do think the second piece of people unable to move āupā is further constricting supply all along the price chain.
I canāt buy up (or for that matter downsize) if Iām going from a 3% to a 6% mortgage.
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I think some modest rate cuts are a messaging win about how weāve now beaten inflation. That also will help people buy houses.
I might be willing to grab a 5% both as a hedge of them going back up, both with an expectation that I can always refi when they come back down.
Will rate cuts do anything tangible to peopleās feelings on the economy?
Congrats rich people!
Wealth effect has to do with retirees and consumer sentiment. Since that was one of the main metrics people in this thread were referencing. It absolutely does have a lot to do with how people feel about the economy.
Lack of supply of housing for sale has to do with many factors including
- people locked into low rate mortgages and unwilling to move due to rates being too high to take on a new mortgage.
- high interest rates impacting construction costs
And of course demand has to do with it too. People have to assess affordability in terms of monthly payment and their income. If the monthly payment is less due to lower interest rates then more people can afford houses and other people can get some budget relief by refinancing bad mortgages they took out at the higher rates.
Why not? Everything has trade offs. If you say the economy sucks, and also say itās a bad idea to do anything that might be inflationary, then youāve ruled out almost every possible action that can fix the economy sucking at the macro level.
The DJIA is literally at an all-time high right now and the economy is polling in the toilet. How much higher does it have to get?
This is fair. I might be wrong about this.
People are saying the economy sucks because everything is expensive. I donāt see how an increase in inflation is going to make people happier about that.
Prices arenāt going to get lower across the board. Deflation if much more problematic and risky than inflation, it never goes well and creates all sorts of hard to escape feedback loops. Any scenario where that happens also involves a bunch of related bad news that ensures Biden is losing the election. If you or others expect Joe Biden, or any president, to make prices come down thatās on you, not him.
The best way to solve affordability is to have an economy and job market that enables people to make more money. That is an inflationary economy, we donāt want runaway inflation but we do want inflation
When interest rates are high the risk free rate of return is high. When the risk free rate of return is high PE ratios have to be lower to give investors an investment worth having. The most common way large corporations raise the earnings side of price/earnings ratio is by doing mass layoffs.
Why exactly do you think FAANG decided to break the emergency glass and get rid of a bunch of people they had overhired/underutilized to build a moat? They did it because earnings needed to go up for them to justify the same barely even inflation adjusted stock price. Most likely the end result will be tons of new competitors being run and staffed by talented people who otherwise probably would work for a major tech company. Itās just example number 312,382 of short term thinking causing American institutions to shoot themselves in the foot since the Boomers with MBAās did their hostile takeover of society.
Lowering interest rates will definitely not hurt the average personās experience in the economy. Will they get as much of a benefit as shareholders? Of course not this is America lol.