I looked at Morning Consult’s performance from 2020 to see if it had some GOP bias, but their final polls actually underestimated how well Trump would do.
Nationally: Biden +8 (he won by 4.5)
Wisconsin: Biden +13 (he won by <1)
Texas: Even (he lost by 6)
Pennsylvania: Biden +9 (he won by 1)
…and so on (including projected wins for Biden in both N Carolina and Florida)
2020 was probably a tough year for polling for obvious reasons, but this isn’t making me feel good.
Biden’s numbers are horrible, and while a few above average national poals may seem better than nothing, his swing state polling and his approval numbers are trash. If you just look at the numbers there’s very little copium to be had, I’d say maybe you could think it’s going to be like the 2022 red wave which turned out to be mostly nothing, but a general election electorate is a different beast than midterms.
I don’t know wtf predictit vs polymarket is these days but if I had to bet I think orange at like 4:3 favorite is more right than PI which has it at 1:1 basically. Would need to see (much) better swing state polling to change my mind, the deterioration in Biden’s swing state numbers has been that bad. I mean, there are poals out there that he’s down by 7 in Michigan, that’s like a lot.
I’d be curious to see what the approvals were in early 96 but they can’t have been as low as Biden’s that range from 54-63% disapproval. Also Clinton was still under 50, and Bob Dole was either the oldest or one of the oldest candidates, and he was probably at least 8 years younger than Biden is now.
Did a quick search looks slick Willie was down in the low 40s for approval in early 96, which is not that far off Biden. Meh, I was a teen not yet into politics but I don’t recall that campaign ever in doubt from like watching late night tv.
None of the trials happening before the election is a massive problem for Biden. DC Circuit is currently sitting on the ABSOLUTE IMMUNITY claim, lol law fuck off.
amazing that milquetoast dipshit MERRICK GARLAND fucked around for 15 years before getting any of this shit moving. in his defense, there is no way he could have known how slow the federal court system is!
Today’s approval poll climate is very different because we’re so polarized. Biden could personally cure cancer and give every American $1M, and he might not crack 55% approval. On the other hand, I disprove of him and will almost certainly begrudgingly vote for him.
Bolded is pretty key. Here are some recent polls that Trump is not posting.
Wisconsin, Fox News, Biden 47 Trump 47
General Election, Quinnipiac, Biden 50 Trump 44
General Election, Economist/YouGov, Biden 43 Trump 42
General Election, Civiqs/Daily Kos, Biden 44,Trump 44
Pennsylvania, Franklin and Marshall, Biden 43 Trump 42
I would say there are definitely more bad polls than good polls right now, but we’re getting a deluge of favorable Trump polls from the TrumpBot. I’d also say that the trending towards better Biden polls has started recently, and I think it’s reasonable to think it will continue. We may be near Trump’s peak performance in polling and it may be all downhill from here.
I also have a hard time buying Trump +7 or whatever in Michigan if Fox News has it 47-47 in Wisconsin, and we’ve seen some good Biden polls in PA.
Ohio Senate recent polls by Emerson I’m seeing Brown +2, Brown +2, Brown +1… Again, does that jive with Trump +7 in Michigan? I’m seeing Slotkin +2 in Michigan Senate polling, again doesn’t jive with Trump +7 there.
Honestly I hate to go full “unskew” on this but good Trump poll results definitely seem good for cable news ratings and newspaper pageviews. Would anyone be shocked if we found out that CNN etc were putting tons of polls in the field and releasing the pro-Trump outliers?
