Oh fuck me come on. Like I get the panic but putting Hillary over Biden is absurd. Results matter.
We are living the deal we made with the devil in 2020 nominating Biden knowing heād be a 125 year old crypt keeper in 2024 and just wishcasting that heād step aside despite all evidence to the contrary.
The chickens have come home to roost.
All this does to anyone with logical reasoning is emphasize that heās unfit for the job. He can read off a prompter but he canāt think on his feet. Legit cognitively unable to do the job.
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Exactly this. When is the last time Biden looked good not reading off a prompter?
This estimate seems totally wacky. The āwho the fuck even is this personā factor will be huge, not to mention the possibility that no matter how much better than Biden they are thinking and talking on their feet, thereās a very good chance that the majority impression after hearing them speak is ānah, thereās something about 'em I donāt likeā and theyāre toast.
Pete is more of a known quantity than the other two, but I feel like heās the most likely to refuse to touch this election with a ten-foot pole and just wait until 2028.
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Yeah this is a place where itās easy to forget how plugged in we all are. I wouldnāt know really anything about Big Gretch if it wasnāt for these forums.
Yup, I really canāt stress enough how many massively low info people there are. Even if fucking Kamala winds up stepping in, something like 20% of people are gonna be like āwhoās that?ā
You can argue thereās not an enormous overlap between that crowd and likely voters, but thereās some.
I think itās the right estimate, for a few reasons:
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A generic Democrat smoked Trump when it was polled late last year, which is a data point to back up the very common opinion among normies of, āI canāt believe itās these two again, ANYONE else would be better!ā The poll showed Trump 46-44 over Biden, and a generic Dem 46-40 over Trump. Weāve also seen Biden running way behind Senate Dems in swing states. Two recent polls in Michigan illustrate thisā¦ One shows a six point gap - Trump +4 and Slotkin +2, another shows a six point game from Trump +2 to Slotkin +4. A generic Dem should get those six to eight points back, and then itās a question of whether they can keep them.
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Imagine what someone competent could have done to Trump on that debate stage. Trump was saying crazy stuff, lying constantly, and celebrating horrendous and unpopular policies. Someone competent would tear him to shreds in the next debate and likely get a big bounce. Biden is so far below replacement on this, like he pivoted from abortion to Laken Riley. In the words of Biden, āCāmon man!ā Someone who can go on offense against Trump in the next debate aggressively will wreck him.
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Likewise, Biden will campaign defensively. Aides leaked that heās good from 10am to 4pm, after that heās shaky. Whatās that mean for his debate schedule? Heās probably not going to be criss-crossing the country or doing events in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (etc) on the same day for a month straight. That also means Kamala will have to do a heavy lift on the campaigning, which will feed right into the āActually Kamala is the shadow president,ā argument. A new candidate can campaign aggressively.
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A new candidate gets age as a benefit against Trump. Theyāll also get like a month of, āDemocrats did the right thing and got Joe Biden to stand down, should Republicans do the same with Trump? Is Trump too old?ā coverage. Youāll get video of our candidate tossing a football or something, juxtaposed with Trump struggling down steps and ramps.
If we were running against Mitt Romney or John McCain, then yeah making the switch would be immensely risky because people might not like the new candidate. But weād be swapping out one of the most disliked candidates ever, and running against the other most disliked candidate ever.
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Think of the pop Newsome or Whitmer would get introducing themselves to the nation at the convention as Not Biden. Theyāre both insanely charismatic.
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Isnāt that a good thing? Democrats want the election to be a referendum on Trump and Roe. Better to run a blank slate.
Not a felon
Not senile
Vote Generic Democrat '24
could very well be a winning message
Iām not really saying this to disagree with you, because I think in a best-case scenario youāre 100% right.
However, the counterpoint is Sarah Palin. The media (both social and legacy, etc) work very fast these days. If the blank slate is quickly filled with, āWho is this moron who can see Russia from her house? Wow, the Dems continue to be incompetentā, then itās also game over.
I 100% agree Dems need to do some due diligence on their presidential candidate, especially knowing what if any skeletons a guy like Newsome has in his closet (shady vibes there).
I just donāt agree that name recognition to voters is important at this stage. Weāre at an election cycle where itās more important to not be hated than it is to be known and liked. Plus there will be plenty of time for the nation to get to know the candidate in the months leading up to the election.
Iām not crying, youāre crying. Watching the tarmac reunions with the Russian prisoners and their families.
Biden might not be able to campaign effectively anymore, but he is good at his job.
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Biden seems to be a loyal dude, he going to be crying like a proud Dad if Harris wins in Nov
If Harris wins I am convinced Biden will get a lot of credit for the timing of his withdrawal putting her in a great position. Decades from now I am hopeful history will remember him as the guy who was a great #2 to the first black president and then mentored and teed up the election run for the first female president.
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Yeah if Harris wins and nothing super crazy like Russia nuking something happens Biden probably going to be remembered extremely favorably historically and for good reason.
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