2024 LC Thread #1 - Elder Fraud Advice

So it turns out playing the optimal strategy of Monopoly is a really good way to make your entire family REALLY mad at you in 2-4 hours.

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Yeah, anyone considering being a whistleblower for any megacorp is going to consider that our oligarchs can kill with near impunity. This isn’t just a big win for Boeing, it’s a big win for all megacorps that want to do awful shit without being ratted out.

Someone is going to push back on this, so before you do, think about this: if we read that a whistleblower in some Russian oil company fell out a window, what would our reaction be? I used to say 8 years of Trump would turn us into Russia light - an oligarchic kleptocracy with little to no upward mobility. Turns out we’re still moving that way under Biden, albeit more slowly.

It’s always been this way, the Clintons murdered Vince Foster and got away with it. Even worse, if you call the Clintons out for their brazen murder then corporate media will paint you as the crazy one.

it doesn’t really matter, they’re going to be mad at you anyway because you made them play that shitty ass game, so you might as well dominate

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I don’t know anything about sports betting but the smart money has to be on Jake Paul, right? Everyone hates him.

I think Jake Paul is going to make a lot of money letting a ton of people hate watch him getting mauled by Mike Tyson. I don’t think Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson on a pogo stick would be a fair fight honestly. I think there might be some money to be made betting on Tyson but I haven’t even looked at the odds because I strongly suspect they’ll just make me angry when I realize how well the sports books are doing on this thing.

I don’t think it’s super easy to make money betting on this fight because the chances Tyson has been paid to throw the fight aren’t 0… and Tyson is going to be the heavy favorite. But assuming Tyson isn’t throwing Jake Paul will be conscious in the ring exactly as long as Mike let’s him be conscious in the ring and not a second longer.

Let’s be really clear Jake Paul is a youtuber and semi serious amateur boxer. He isn’t a contender for anything and never will be. His job in these things is to bring the eyeballs. This Mike Tyson fight will draw even more eyeballs because Mike Tyson brings his own eyeballs, especially from people who know boxing who find Jake Paul very annoying and are looking forward to watching him fight a still pretty scary former heavyweight champ. Not scary to a current heavyweight champ, but to a youtube amateur boxer? Yeesh.

This would be a bit like one of us getting into really good shape and practicing basketball really hard for a few years and then playing 1v1 with a 57 year old NBA hall of famer. You are getting absolutely destroyed lol. They are still much closer to Lebron than you’ll ever be lol.

Oh and the only thing Paul could possibly do to beat Tyson is the standard beat Tyson strat of keep him outside and use your reach advantage (which almost all or literally all Tyson opponents had) to kill him from range. Beating that strategy is what Tyson does. Could the best heavyweights in the world execute it vs Tyson in his twilight years? Yes absolutely. Can Jake Paul execute it vs one of the most gifted boxers who ever lived? Lol no come on what are we talking about.

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My understanding is that Paul can fight a little bit. Tyson is 57, Paul is 27 and almost certainly juicing. Even aside from all the “this isn’t really a boxing match” scenarios I don’t think it’s a 100% lock that Paul would get immediately crushed.

Boxing is a very skill intensive sport. Tyson was one of the most technically gifted boxers of all time. That’s how he was such a dominant force despite numerous physical disadvantages. The age difference here doesn’t matter 10% as much as that’s Mike fucking Tyson.

Old people who can box are still genuinely scary. Foreman was heavyweight champion of the world in his late 40s. That’s way crazier than giving Jake Paul a traumatic brain injury.

Fight a little bit is exactly right. I’ve watched tape of Jake Paul’s fights lately and Tyson’s last thing. Tyson could beat Jake Paul conclusively blackout drunk on twenty minutes notice on nothing but muscle memory. This is a way bigger mismatch than mcgregor v mayweather for example.

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Feel like 57 is pretty fucking old in sports though. I mean usually we talking about folks in 30s like they got one foot in a nursing home

All I know is I’m seeing a ton of 40-50-year men high on nostalgia who seem to be way overconfident in their boyhood hero.

This is a way bigger mismatch than mcgregor v mayweather for example.

lol I put a sizeable bet on Maywether because I saw so many chuds hard in the tank for McGregor, I’m undefeated betting on fights.

We play with our own rules. Lots of side deals, etc.

All night session w my high school buddies. I’m dominating until the rest essentially sold everything they had to another player for $1 each. Busted me around 4am.

Over 40 years ago. Bastards. Ok so maybe around midnight I was gloating.

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What was the optimal strategy you played with?

The big key is there are a limited number of houses (32), so if you can monopolize those then nobody can build. Of course everyone gets mad, but the name of the game is Monopoly and it was designed to teach the perils of capitalism without regulation/progressive taxes.

The other key strategy point is knowing the highest ROI monopolies based on cost to build and most landed on spaces - orange, red, light blue. Most people overvalue Boardwalk/Park Place, for example. Almost everyone overvalues the railroads - they cash flow nicely if you get 3 or 4, but they can’t really break anyone in the late game.

If you know/figure all that out and you’re good at strategy/game theory, and nobody else is, it’s hard to lose. You can figure out when to “overpay” on stuff at auction or in deals and give yourself leverage for later.

Last night nobody had a Monopoly, and most of the deals were going to have to go through me based on luck of the roll giving me a good distribution of properties and “overpaying” for one to buy leverage. My Dad had three railroads, but that’s $100 if you land on one. So even if you land on one every circuit, you are netting money from passing go (less some EV for bad spaces/cards). So he’s gaining capital but if he can’t deploy it, it doesn’t help him that much in the long run.

Nobody would give me an (imo) fair deal, so I waited a few circuits of the board to build some cash and made a (in a vacuum) -EV deal for light blue and purple, then instantly put four houses on each to grab 20 of the 32 houses and recapture that EV. It didn’t make me a lock but it made me a big favorite and allowed me to try to realize my equity and break the stalemate.

Typing this out and reading it, obviously thinking about Monopoly this way makes me a bit of a weirdo and a huge game theory nerd, and not a lot of fun to play against. On the other hand I’m not sure yelling at me and getting big mad because I was playing a capitalist board game strategically well is a great look for my Dad either.

Basically caused my law in order conservative father to throw a “rules are stupid and shouldn’t be followed,” temper tantrum. Not that he’ll ever connect those dots.

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We had materials and cash from multiple sets. Never ran out of money or buildings.

Yeah most people do and they all make the game take way way longer - the free parking jackpot extends the game a lot, so does not auctioning properties, and allowing unlimited building cranks up the variance in the end game when by normal rules the leader will usually grind the heads up opponent to a pulp within a couple circuits. With unlimited development, if you alternate landing on properties, you can trade cash indefinitely.

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Yeah unlimited buildings extends the game a ton. Cash you’re allowed to just print on paper if needed per the rules. But the buildings are supposed to be able to be Monopolized, which most people don’t realize. It’s supposed to be a very cutthroat game that teaches people that unregulated capitalism sucks. I’ll definitely use it to teach any future kids I have some important economic lessons at some point.

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It’s been 20 years since I’ve played, so the strategy is better to build 3 (or 4 was it?) houses instead of the big hotel so that others can’t build houses?

We got so that we need a lawyer and an accountant present (which we had once my son graduated and I got remarried).

With the kids we played a time limit. Also limited the free nights as part of a deal.

We did the free parking thing (also snake eyes). All monies were paid into the jackpot.

My daughter would pay any price to her brother to get the railroads. She was quite impressed when we move to Philly and we a Reading station at valley forge.

My wife thought we were punking her when we prounounced Reading like reading rainbow. Us midwestern hicks.

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Yeah, it’s been a long time since I played, but I remember the house strategy you’re talking about there. Definitely a good way to annoy people when playing.

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