2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Debate Night - Walz vs Weirdo

Politics & News
1520

I don’t think that’s a given right now. I have Biden at damn near 0% to win, and if that’s true, he’s going to continue to fall in the polls and that support has to go somewhere. In the multi-way match, it’s currently like Trump 42, Biden 36, RFK 14 or something like that. Let’s say Biden bombs this interview (very possible) or just doesn’t do enough to change the news cycle one iota (most likely outcome), and drops to like 32%, now we could see Trump 42, Biden 36, RFK 18. Once the narrative is “Biden losing support to RFK, who is surging!” it becomes self-fulfilling.

I don’t think RFK is likely to win, it’s < 10% even if he pulls ahead of Biden. But I do think it’s plausible that on Election Day, RFK is polling higher than Biden.

I’m a staunch liberal who’s had like 8 or 9 COVID jabs who LOATHES anti-vaxxers, and I’m sitting here thinking, “Maybe RFK is the least bad option.” I have to think there are others who are less militant about vaccines, less informed about RFK’s closeted skeletons, and similarly down on Biden.

I think we need a filing deadline list, and I’m really curious what happens with the other parties. If No Labels reversed course and ran a Manchin/Flake ticket or something like that, I’d vote for that over Biden if it were viable to win, and I hate Manchin with a passion. I think it would probably actually poll right in the mix right now. Might be too late. If the Libertarians kicked their candidates off and ran a viable candidate who wasn’t nuts, I’d consider them. If a billionaire like Mark Cuban jumped in and self-funded, he’d be my pick over the current crop.

I can’t imagine what’s going on behind closed doors. Like, I could imagine a world where a political strategist is calling up someone like Matt Damon or The Rock saying they could win as an independent right now. And, like, maybe they could?

I could make the case that Trump’s 42, Biden’s 36, and RFK’s 14 are all soft numbers. All of them. I think someone like Mark Cuban could immediately take chunks off all three of them and get into the 25% range from Day 1.

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1521

Nope they absolutely shunned out of political existence a GOP governor over dog related issues. It’s the real third rail of politics. Touch it and fucking die. It’s one of the few things we actually all agree on.

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1522

You still have to vote for Biden. I understand low information voters that don’t understand the threat that Trump represents may be moved by Biden’s significantly limited mental state. But not voting for Biden as a form of protest is dumb.

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1523

Yeah obviously everyone votes for Biden if he’s the nominee on election day… but if he’s the nominee it’ll be because the Democratic Party scammed its base and if we lose the resulting election I hope they all die horribly in camps. I’m not kidding I want them to go first. Playing stupid games in this situation is a ‘you better hope there’s no hell because if there is you’re going there’ spot for sure. Trying to double down and blame the voters for your fuck up in this spot I’d strike the match to burn you at the stake for. Truly evil shit.

The fact that this is a conversation we’re having at all is honestly the reason why the entire Democratic establishment needs to fucking go. The next iteration needs to contain literally zero people in leadership who didn’t get a pell grant.

EDIT: And again to be very clear I’m talking about the insiders who allowed the primary to be essentially closed knowing Biden very likely wouldn’t be up to running the actual race. That shit is a crime against fucking humanity. We should not be in this situation at all. The man basically promised not to run a second time.

Last time Trump won probably at least an extra million people died. You help him get elected over petty political bullshit you’re more responsible for what he does than he is. He’s a fucking moron and more of a terrain feature than a player on the board. You were entrusted with the highest level political positions in the sane major political party in the most powerful country the world has ever seen and you entirely fucked it up and lost to a drooling imbecile.

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1524

Dumb is the most powerful and wealthy country in the history of the world having a presidential election that comes down to a Redneck Hitler, a Senile Replacement Level Centrist, and Dog BBQ Guy.

Anything that happens after that is what it is.

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1525
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1526

bruh

bruh

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1527

You want to know what made me feel like a sucker? Knocking on doors in the rain for Joe Biden and then watching his only slightly less inhumane handling of the immigrants at the border, and now watching this shit show. Donating money to several Congressional Dem candidates, and watching them do the minimal amount possible with their power.

I did get more engaged with our political system, and at the end of it I knew I was a sucker for it. Unless/until they prove that it’s worthwhile to do anything or give anything to them, I’d rather spend my time and money taking food and water to homeless camps or volunteering in the local community for a good cause.

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1528

Maybe this is my copium-fueled attempt to convince myself Donald Trump has like 90% equity instead of 99%, but I’m more optimistic about RFK’s chances than Biden’s.

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1529

This is a dumb take. There’s a very real chance Trump can’t beat a toaster oven which is the entire pro Biden case. It probably has 10-25% equity based on previous election results where Trump and Biden weren’t on the ballot but abortion was. It would also look like the polling slowly drifting back to dead even over the next few weeks if it was going to happen.

That is still a complete disaster for an election we realistically need an amount of equity approaching 100%. We’re not supposed to need to suck out vs Donald Trump. That guys luckbox is unreal.

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1530

Biden may still win (and in some ways that would be hilarious), but we’re basically drawing to a 5 pt polling miss (which is of course possible). There isn’t any clear catalyst for Biden to make up ground other than dispelling concerns about his mental fitness. He can only do that if he is in fact mentally sharp.

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1531

+10,000

Put up or shut up. If he puts up I’ll happily shut up. Thing is I think if he was going to he already would have and where we are right now is not an acceptable resolution of any kind.

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1532

I don’t think Trump can beat a non-crazy candidate who can string coherent sentences together who’s not already loathed… But I think if we run a guy clearly unable to do the job, we can’t beat him.

Biden is down 6 points in the high quality multiway polls, and needs to win by 2.5 points to be safe. So we’re drawing to an 8.5 point polling miss, aren’t we?

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1533

President Biden told a gathering of Democratic governors that he needs to get more sleep and work fewer hours

I know a way he could get as much sleep as he wants and drop the working hours to zero.

It starts with “re” and ends with “tire”.

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1534

1535

I’m just assuming we are going to get some reversion plus Trump is really bad. I’m guessing Biden will be down 3-5 pts nationally going into eDay.

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1536

I agree with this, but surely there are some voters who would react to anything other than handing the campaign over to Harris and letting her pick her running mate as a significant act of disrespect, if not outright racism.

How this translates to actual votes gain vs lost I couldn’t guess. Conventional wisdom is that black women saved us in 2020, I’d like to see some polling that says they’re on board with an open process.

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1537

https://x.com/DougJBalloon/status/1808893234208268540

Too real.

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1538

Maybe but her previous experience was 2/3 of one term as US senator. If she didn’t check two important boxes she’d never even be near the vice presidency.

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1539

There will also be people who will have a problem with not following a more open process, after bypassing a proper primary. Ultimately I think being up against Trump renders most of this moot once November rolls around. I’ll be annoyed if they hand ti to Harris, but I’ll definitely vote for her. I assume most people who would view her as passed over would do the same.

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