In California.
Trump +10 in Pennsylvania.
https://twitter.com/TVietor08/status/1810806279935533086?t=a4iCJy9kzaBG9zPvhvsluQ&s=19
Due to the peculiarity of my specialty*, I work with med students from astound the country. The skew here could be “educated”, but I don’t work with just California kids.
Also, at +30 I’d see it even in California
*basically to match into EM you have to do away rotations. This year I’ve worked with kids from Ireland, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
I mean intuitively you would think that could not be true also. But it seems to pop up in every poll which is bizarre if it isn’t real.
The good thing about being patient is our guy will definitely get stronger as the calendar continues to turn over new pages.
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The educated skew could definitely do it.
Dems are patiently waiting for…
https://twitter.com/greenfield64/status/1810882696064946607?t=a2cHEfuzuwCozIV-AUwRNw&s=19
I’ve also spent a lot of time with this age group over the past 10 years and the shift in polls doesn’t surprise me. Turning Point has a sizeable presence on college campuses. The kids are listening to Joe Rogan and Ben Shapiro. They think Trump is hilarious. Current college students don’t remember anything of substance from Obama’s years and don’t remember Bush at all. Their worldview is easily shaped, Republicans are putting in the work to shape it, and Democrats have dropped the ball taking yet another demographic for granted.
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I also think there’s a huge enthusiasm gap, and these polls were of registered voters. Our side is dejected about the shiftiness of our candidate and our chances, their side is outraged and eager to tAkE bAcK aMeRiCa!
The problem with this theory is how republicans are underperforming in 2022 and every special election since
Have we seen exit polling by age?
2022 and special elections could be the product of the MAGA GOP not turning out when Daddy isn’t on the ballot.
I’ve seen exit polling by age in 2022. 18-29 went Dem 63-35. 18-24 went 61-36.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/general/us-house/0
There is no way that is completely erased by Trump being on the ballot
From my vantage in a Seattle suburb, admittedly going mostly on feels, nfw Washington goes for Trump.
Haven’t seen any polling, but Wikipedia says Biden was almost +20 in 2020. I just can’t see that big of a swing.
Checking OR and NJ, both went Biden +16 in 2020, so they also seem unlikey to flip.
Unless there’s data to the contrary? (If so, don’t tell me 
)
Man we’re really leaning big into unskewing the polls eh? I get that it worked out great for President Romney back in 2012 but idk if we can count on it working twice. Also Ds are winning specials because the high propensity voters have switched parties so low turnout races generally favor them now and I wouldn’t count on that saving the day.
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One unskew copium I can think of is that motor voter laws aren’t getting young people registered since fewer of them are getting their licenses. And Republicans are making more efforts to get their likely voters registered than dems are.
Missed this laugher. Since the day Trump announced for office, so for 9 years now, the NYT has consistently called Trump dangerously unfit for office and a threat to the Republic.
But they didn’t request that he resign! Focus on form over substance from a bunch of delusional, desperate partisans that refuse to accept responsibility for their despicable actions.
A true profile in courage, totally up to him and she backs his decision, but we should wait to see what it is. He’s already made it Nancy. It’s on people like you to change his mind, unless you’re working an insider trading scheme on Polymarket right now.
https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1811004052672496122?t=lBb_MzB_1hg3-LNz4L7xxQ&s=19