I guess I get why Biden’s #2 isn’t rebelling yet, that’s a real Brutus role. Fetterman just continues to disappoint.
Do you believe that Kathy Hochul is a significantly worse candidate that Joe Biden and Lee Zeldin is a significantly better candidate than Donald Trump? If not, then why is a 5 point swing so unbelievable?
I believe state and national elections are different.
Anyways, another big national poll:
https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1811177190324895840?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
NY is not in play
just hope that as long as they’re gonna actually do the right thing that they go all the way and open it up. It’ll take a deft hand to organize a non-infomercial convention that is clarifying while hitting all the right tones. Perfect world would be that on the last night, after being introduced one by one to the stage by a dignified hologram joe they close with all the candidates standing behind their champion and smiling like they mean it while nominee gives final speech that hits the sweet spot between shakespeare and ric flair with a singlepointed goal of pivoting like a star spangled eye of sauron towards fuck trump
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They are definitely different.
Source: Kansas, Kentucky, Vermont
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“I don’t believe for a second there’s a world where Biden is only down 1”.
Is that how’s it done?
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I mean one position has lots of public polls at or around that number, the other is an unsourced claim that a Biden 20+ district has flipped to Trump and NY is in play. Feel free to choose
I was referring to your reaction to this poll: https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/wisconsin-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.019.pdf
Please don’t feel like you need to analyze the cross tabs or whatever. I just think posting polls that back up your position and then saying “lol no” to ones that don’t is a pretty low level of discourse.
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Actually I’m not sure what your position is. Is it that Biden has the best win equity, or more like he won fair and square type of thing?
Pretty sure Biden backed Fetterman after he had the horrendous post-stroke debate, and I think Fetterman is biased because he lived the comeback that Joe can’t make because 50 year olds recover from strokes but 81 year olds don’t recover from aging.
I’ve been talking about how I haven’t been buying polls stating that 2024 would be a giant realignment election for almost 6 months now. If you think that Biden will lose young voters (won by 30+ nationally in 2020, dems won 30+ in 2022) and break even in old voters (lost by 5 in 2020, 12 in 2022) go for it. There’s tons of data to support it!
I remain extremely skeptical of data showing this kind of thing, and think it suggests some sort of systemic error. I’m far from alone in this, and it’s a point of contention for a lot of people.
This horrifying article reminded me that Trump probably wins in 2020 if he just tells his folks that it is cool to vote by mail during ~peak COVID:
The delusional arrogance of the Biden clan is astounding.
We have a new reason for the disastrous debate: it was Clooney’s fault!
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1811199378910060915?t=ce37VlBmHNlIFHysZY7d6Q&s=19
Republicans believed, was a fait accompli. “Donald Trump was well on his way to a 320-electoral-vote win,” Chris LaCivita told me this past Sunday as Democrats questioned, ever more frantically, whether President Joe Biden should remain the party’s nominee in November. “That’s pre -debate.”
lol
There’s delusional arrogance here, and it’s not bidens
I probably don’t agree with him a lot, but I don’t blame him for saying this. He’s in a Trump +7 district.
That’s the result from flipping GA/NV/AZ/PA/WI.
It doesn’t seem that absurd to me.
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Can you help me understand your general position?
It’s clear that you are in opposition to those that believe that Biden should drop out. Am I right to assume it’s primarily because you believe Biden has greater win equity than the weighted average of whoever would replace him?
We will see, their hypothesis was that America won’t elect a dottering old man and we just got a moderate Congressional D saying, on the record, that he finds that argument convincing (as in convincing him personally not to vote Biden, not just that Biden can’t win).