I don’t even think you have to mention the cognitive decline.
Just say something about how Joe has done the job he was elected to do 4 years ago and now the American people have made it clear that it’s time to pass the baton to a new generation.
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I think it was @boredsocial who gave the best analogy ever. You gotta remember everyone in the Democratic Party establishment is the kid who did model UN or student government and cares way more about process and rules than actually winning or governing effectively.
I actually have a ton of respect for and really like skydiver, but you can see it in her posts on the topic here. Nothing has ever been about what actually helps us win, just process and rules that the other side has shown over and over don’t actually matter.
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Emphasis on THE kid. These are the people who have been winning awards their entire life for following the rules to the letter and as a result sometimes shipping mediocre or worse work product because the rules weren’t great. That’s what you get rewarded for in Academia, completing the assignment according to the instructions and making the right people like you. It doesn’t matter all that much how good the product is because it’s very goodness is based on how tightly it adhered to the rules of the assignment and the quality of the resulting work definitely comes second. Obviously brilliant students can both follow the rules and produce excellent work, but the prioritization they learn at this stage tends to stick.
Look the high achieving academic elite do some stuff well for sure, but nothing in my lifelong study of economics/politics/history has ever suggested to me that you can get anything done without breaking at least a few rules, often many rules.
The best presidents AINEC were some of the most bare knuckle rule breaking types. Of course Trump is as well, but that’s the part of him that works, and without that he’d have gone to prison in the early 90’s along with all his friends he almost certainly ratted out in yet another example of his willingness to totally ignore the rules when it benefited him. He’s a great example of the risky duality of rule breakers that makes the rule following fetishists so uncomfortable… but it’s important to note that Lincoln, FDR, and LBJ were all much more interested in the ends than the means.
Personally I’m obviously more the rule maker/breaker type in that I see them as a tool to achieve whatever it is I’m trying to achieve. I operate using a set of rules but that set of rules is constantly adapting to the conditions I’m in. They aren’t sacred and following them doesn’t innately make you a better person. It does make you a better cog in a huge organization, but then those huge organizations spend vast amounts of money hiring outsiders like me to come in and fix the conflicts those internal rules cause third party.
Rules are supposed to be changed semi frequently based on their efficacy in achieving their purpose. Most of this countries problems in 2024 stem from the fact that we don’t have even a marginally effective mechanism for changing our rules when they become obsolete, particularly in the face of opposition from the incumbents those rules benefit. Pick a problem, scratch it, and you’ll find a whole bunch of that right under the surface.
When I look at Trump 99.9% of his ‘appeal’ is that he’s going to go up to Washington and give those asshole A kids and their means tested everything a swirly. He’s a schoolyard bully offering to go bully some people who desperately need and deserve some bullying. That this is appealing to people is not a surprise to me given just how pretentious, sanctimonious, and all around soft the political leadership in this country tends to be. One party is full of full blown APD/NPD monsters who don’t care about anything but winning and they get paid to win. The other party is full of the least politically effective A kids the donors could pick. People you can count on to follow the rules even when it’s objectively terrible for everyone and who have never even seriously considered rocking the boat. They, knowingly or not, are picked and paid to lose by the people those rules benefit.
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IS NEW YORK IN PLAY?
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1811696839747317884?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
No
That just can’t be right. New York?
Well, even for Democrats, they’ve done an incredibly awful job governing NY.
I’m not saying we should be optimistic, but the polling makes no sense. RFK is not pulling 8%, those are like Ross Perot numbers.
That’s a national poll.
The NY barb is making fun of the NY panic here a few days ago
Some of these polls are terrible. He is cherry picking results for some of the others. For the Emerson poll decided voters is 46-43 Trump. It’s only 50-50 when undecideds are included. And he conveniently ignores all the polls that are bad for Biden.
Here is the most recent Emerson poll for example:
On polls included in the RCP average the PBS poll from today is the only one Biden has won since before the debate.
I haven’t fact checked the tweet, but rcp once stopped including new polls for a week in order to avoid letting Biden take a lead.
Also, it’s been awhile, but pushing undecideds I think is more accurate.
The Trump campaign is backing off, hoping Biden saves himself as the nominee. They’re sitting on their money, while Biden is blasting ads in swing states. Trump hasn’t started running wall to wall ads with Biden’s debate shit show, but he will start the day Biden is locked in as the nominee.
Biden is capped at his poll numbers, it only gets worse from here. For other Dem candidates with lower name recognition, this is closer to their floor than their ceiling, but they have a lot more variance, which we need.
Not only is Biden going to be destroyed as mentally unfit by wall to wall ads from August 25 to election day, he’s incapable of contrasting his positions against Trump’s and making the case to the voters in a coherent, concise, effective way.
Oh and by the way, your polls add up to a small Trump lead, and the person who tweeted them calls themself a Hopium Purveyor in their Twitter bio.
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Mostly agree, but don’t think this is quite right.
A lot of normies haven’t been exposed to the Project 2025 stuff. I think there’s room for Biden’s numbers to improve.
(That said, it’s hard to message that when everyone is questioning your nominee’s mental faculties)
I have zero confidence Biden can message on that. He didn’t mention it in the debate or the Stephonopoulous interview. Yesterday’s presser was the first time I saw him mention it.
He needs to be hammering it and explaining it. And he needs to be able to do so in an elevator pitch.
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The real problem is that Biden can’t string 2 complete sentences together. So it’s impossible for him to coherently make the case for himself and against Trump. Just having surrogates do it isn’t going to cut it.
If you were heading up Biden’s campaign you are really stuck because any appearance he makes will get scrutinized for how he is behaving and talking rather than the substance of what he is saying. I’m not sure what the strategy is except minimize Biden’s exposure to the country and hammer ads in battleground states. Which is what they have been doing. Doesn’t seem possible that will be enough.
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The problem is that you can’t do that while simultaneously reassuring the country that Biden is mentally capable of being the president until 2029.
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This simply isn’t true, and it’s obvious to anyone actually paying attention. Trump has been doing his same crazy stupid shit, it’s just not being covered as much by the media.
Biden favored (ever so slightly) on 538. Polling just isn’t that bad for Biden and is improving.