Man I wanna believe.
Don Jr did a livestream last night saying Biden was probably good enough to run, Trump has definitely not been his normal levels of crazy, and there’s reporting out of their campaign that they’re praying Biden doesn’t drop out.
We all know Biden’s campaign knows he’s not up to it. That’s why he didn’t do a long presser a day or two after the debate, and why he didn’t do a long interview within a few days of the debate and instead did a 15-20 minute interview with a friendly journalist. Every time I bring this up to skydiver or CN they seem to miss that post or forget to respond.
That’s the bottom line though. He’s not up for it. And he’s trying to come from behind. He’s polling way worse in swing states than nationally and he’s spending a bunch in swing states while Trump spends zero. You can’t come back from that running a campaign with a hidden candidate.
Ike I truly don’t know what you get out of digging in on these dumb positions but you’re just wrong here. Joe cannot win.
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The polling is consistently nonsensical. Do we really think RFK is pulling 8%? Almost the most successful 3rd party bid in my lifetime?
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Agreed 100% on that
If you look at the crosstabs, it’s the double haters who are driving up RFK Jr’s numbers. Also, independent women. Those should be segments where the Democrats can make inroads with a non-Biden candidate.
538 giving Joe a 51% chance isn’t based on the strength of his poll #s, it’s based on “fundamentals”
such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. On polls alone, they show Trump expanding his average swing state poll lead from a 1 point lead on 7/6 to a 2.2 point lead today.
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Against the two most unpopular candidates ever? Yes. Perot got 19% in 1992 and 8% in 1996. RFK pulling 8% is very possible.
An Arizona poll of about 650 voters showed Kari Lake making up a 13% deficit against Gallego. Why can they even publish stuff like this?
The polls moving is why it’s improved
Everyone saying Biden has no shot are being dramatic. I’m slowly closing in on this being a 50/50 flip situation where nobody really knows. These polls are very weak. The % undecided is crazy and it really could all be a reaction to the news cycle and all of us losing our shit.
That being said JB should drop out and spend his remaining days praying that he didn’t fuck the whole world up when he decided to run again. Whatever happens it’s his fault and not anyone else’s. We absolutely should not be in this situation. Getting mad at people for being mad about this is textbook victim blaming and gross. He’s run his whole career on being wholesome and honest and now he’s been caught absolutely red handed lying about something wildly important to the situation at hand in a very bald and careless way. It’s fucking bad and it reflects horribly on everyone who spent enough time around him to know for a fact he wasn’t up to it.
We’re mad because we’re getting fucked over. Telling us to stop being mad and get back in line is the same kind of shit that got us here and it needs to stop. Joe Biden has a moral obligation to drop out of the race and not dropping out in this spot is a significantly bad thing that will absolutely obliterate his legacy if he loses.
Hillary will never be anything but that dumb arrogant piece of shit who got probably at least a hundred million sklansky people killed trying to get another title on her resume. It was selfish and it ruined both her reputation and the barely a shred of reputation that was left to her giant piece of shit should be ex husband who is probably not just a serial sexual harrasser but a full blown pedophile.
Losing to Trump is the end of your legacy as a politician. All that’s left is stinky sulfur laced ash mixed with the foulest medical waste known to humanity and so much blood on your hands it never washes clean. Biden really really really fucked up getting us here and saying it doesn’t make me the villain. I’m just pointing out where we are when I say it.
Beating Trump isn’t hard but it is so high stakes that fucking it up is going to dwarf the impact of anything else you could ever do in your life. We deserve a candidate you could squint at and think was the best possible option or so close that it didn’t really matter. That’s just the basic buyin to be in this game and we all discovered, after we passed on having a primary essentially on the honor system, that he isn’t even bringing half of that. We’re going to be very pissed. That’s something someone should have considered before they did this maybe?
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Just to show I’m not crosstab truthing selectively here
538 is notoriously bad. He is like +350 on PI right now. We should all be loading up if that model was any good.
Now now if there’s one thing I’m 10,000% sure of it’s that PI lines are not very well correlated with reality. How could it be when we all had 500%+ ROI’s on it last time?
That isn’t to say that 538 is infallible or something they’ve certainly fucked up plenty in the past… but PI isn’t better than anyone lol.
If I could load my life roll onto predictit tomorrow and get infinite action at the lines on offer during 2020 I would have made at least 3-4 years of my regular income off of it in ~6-12 months.
Biden isn’t even the betting favorite to be the nominee. The idea that he is the favorite to win the GE given the overall state of the battleground polling is completely ridiculous. He has barely won a battleground poll in 6 months(had won very close to zero outside of a few in Michigan) and is getting drubbed in the RCP averages.
really need to stop using rcp, might as well be citing trump propaganda, they are not a neutral source.
The “Real/OG” 538 has Biden at 27%:
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1811819880615952493?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
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