Should have stopped after “election.”
Yeah it’s gonna be Harris at this point unless she doesn’t want it for some reason. Which honestly she’s not a billion years old and she can string together multiple sentences and those 2 facts alone make her at least 10x better than lol Biden.
I’ve said this for a while but Biden is at very close to 0% equity post-debate. I wouldn’t bet serious money on him winning in November at 100:1.
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That seems hyperbolic to me. I’m not remotely optimistic about his chances, but I’d never put him below like 20-25% equity.
It’s very possible a relatively huge percentage of his poll weakness is just people that are frustrated and pissed off and refusing to commit to Biden in polls because it’s the only method of protest they have right now, but absolutely will fall in line to keep Trump out of the White House again. Throw in some own-goal unhinged shit from Trump’s side, and something like a ceasefire in Gaza that Joe gets some credit for, and things could flip completely in the next 3 months. It’s looking awful, and yes I think Joe needs to bow out, but “close to 0%” just sounds silly.
You can get 20:1 right now. You should be unloading.
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That’s baking in the probability that he drops out though, right? I still think there’s a huge chance that he does. The 20-25% figure I threw out is assuming he stays until the bitter end.
If your 0% equity figure is including the chance he bails, then it’s much closer to my figure, since I’m honestly seeing a 67% chance at this point that he does indeed drop out.
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My 100:1 line is just for him to be president come Feb 2025. I think there is almost zero chance of that happening. He won’t be the nominee and even if he was he has almost no chance to beat Trump.
It isn’t zero but it is less than 1% imo.
Yup I hear you. See my edit above, I think the parlay of him staying in and winning is probably more like 6-8% then, so we’re not thinking that differently.
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Does she, though? It’s really up to Biden whether to tell his delegates to vote for Kamala, or tell them to vote their preference in an open convention.
Biden isn’t going to do that. The hopeful news of the day is literally him asking people if they thinks she could win. She’s the backup here nobody else. She has to willingly give up the presidency for herself.
Kamala Harris hasn’t spent her whole life ascending the ladder to power to do the right thing here so some other person can have a 5-10% better shot of winning than her maybe. She won’t even take much blame if she loses. Biden and his aides own the whole situation.
0% chance she voluntarily passes, but he may just be doing his diligence before deciding which route to go. Keep in mind, he may think she was heavily involved in knifing him and prefer to go open convention to spite her.
I concur.
I think the party is desperate for anything to rally behind. I could see there being a real and genuine groundswell of support for Kamala if the Dems handle this right.
All we have to fade is Dems being Dems. (Fuck)
Some real selfish scumbaggery by the Biden folks here.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1813967877026071005?t=4G1nvY7ZsdzWRInguAVH6A&s=19
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/18/obama-says-biden-must-consider-viability/
Vince Carter now standing at the three point line, about to take off on the dunk that leads to the meme.
If Biden announces he’s out like five minutes after Trump’s speech ends… I can’t imagine feeling any more unburdened by what has been.
I’d be super careful about a poll commissioned by drew Phillips and company
He lost Obama…