2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Debate Night - Walz vs Weirdo

goofy · May 23, 2024, 7:41pm

A Biden poll unskewer engaged in the classic blunder of agreeing to talk to Isaac Chotiner

This is from FiveThirtyEight: “Despite a loud chorus of naysayers”—

They’re not correct.

Hold on, let me finish reading. “Despite a loud chorus of naysayers claiming that the polls were either underestimating Democratic support or biased yet again against Republicans, the polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.”

They’re wrong about that. I mean, they’re just wrong. They’re wrong. I mean, I’m presenting you with facts. How in the world could polling averages be correct if they ended up with fifty-four seats in the Senate? And I have an explanation.

Some of the Senate races were perceived to be close. Democrats won those races when some people thought Republicans were going to narrowly win them.

No, but what FiveThirtyEight wrote is not true. And I have a clear, definitive proof that what they wrote in that is not true. In 2022, there was an effort—and this has been documented again and again—by Republicans to flood the polling averages with bad polling, to push the polling averages to the right, which was then successful.

The entire political commentary in the final month before the election settled on the red wave. Shane Goldmacher wrote one in the New York Times. I was mocked and attacked by Nate Silver, by Dave Wasserman, and by all these other folks. Part of the reason I got the election right when almost nobody else did was that I separated out the Republican-heavy polling from the independent polling. And what we saw consistently is that, in the independent polling and independent-media polling, the election looked close and competitive. So, if you wanted to see a close and competitive election, there was a lot of data backing that up.

As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”

I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.

Wait, wait—why?

Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career.

Oh, O.K. Sorry.

It almost suggests people just don’t like the incumbent President.

Well, right. Right. Right. So, structurally, the generic has moved in our direction, and we’re now consistently in positive territory in the generic. The generic, for me, in 2022, was a very important measure that ended up being far more accurate than many of the other measures about what happened in that election. There’s a serious poll that’s coming out in North Carolina, consistent with many other polls that have been done in North Carolina, showing that the race is within two points, and so I think the point I’m making is that my basic assessment is that I would much rather be us than them.

I am just looking at the FiveThirtyEight North Carolina polling average. Trump is ahead by six and a half points.

I understand.

This is an example of my concern about the way you’re talking about this.

I said there’s a poll coming out.

You said it was also like the other polls from North Carolina.

No. Forget the averages.

Forget the averages?

grue · May 23, 2024, 10:27pm

Weird fucking article. Who prints stuff like this? (spoiler, he did not end the interview)

CaffeineNeeded · May 24, 2024, 1:48pm

https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1793967950577451115

welp, maybe this is good? suppress turnout?

Hired_Goons · May 24, 2024, 3:07pm

I’m having trouble figuring that chart out. What do the lines represent? Do the points have the same weights at each year on the horizontal axis? Is it just saying Biden +? to Trump +12?

CaffeineNeeded · May 24, 2024, 3:16pm

I think it’s just saying that the people who report voting vs report not voting in 2020 are the top line, with the x-axis being the year

eyebooger · May 24, 2024, 3:17pm

If the 2020 non-voters in that decreasing line are representing newly minted 18 year olds, that is a REALLY bad sign.

(Assuming the data is accurate, which I have my doubts about)

CaffeineNeeded · May 24, 2024, 3:46pm

I don’t think that’s the assumption. It’s low-info voters who are leaning trump, but the good news is that they don’t tend to vote and trump tells them it’s all rigged anyways.

goofy · May 30, 2024, 7:12pm

Reposting here as it will quickly get lost in angry TRUTHs in the Trump thread. I’d sure like to see ole’ Donny Trump wriggle his way out of this one!

I should know. I was one of four producers involved in the first two seasons. During that time, I signed an expansive nondisclosure agreement that promised a fine of $5 million and even jail time if I were to ever divulge what actually happened. It expired this year.

“I think Kwame would be a great addition to the organization,” Kepcher says to Trump, who winces while his head bobs around in reaction to what he is hearing and clearly resisting.

“Why didn’t he just fire her?” Trump asks, referring to Omarosa. It’s a reasonable question. Given that this the first time we’ve ever been in this situation, none of this is something we expected.

“That’s not his job,” Bienstock says to Trump. “That’s yours.” Trump’s head continues to bob.

“I don’t think he knew he had the ability to do that,” Kepcher says. Trump winces again.

“Yeah,” he says to no one in particular, “but, I mean, would America buy a n— winning?”

Kepcher’s pale skin goes bright red. I turn my gaze toward Trump. He continues to wince. He is serious, and he is adamant about not hiring Jackson.

Bienstock does a half cough, half laugh, and swiftly changes the topic or throws to Ross for his assessment. What happens next I don’t entirely recall. I am still processing what I have just heard. We all are. Only Bienstock knows well enough to keep the train moving. None of us thinks to walk out the door and never return. I still wish I had. (Bienstock and Kepcher didn’t respond to requests for comment.)

Afterward, we film the final meeting in the boardroom, where Jackson and Rancic are scrutinized by Trump, who, we already know, favors Rancic. Then we wrap production, pack up, and head home. There is no discussion about what Trump said in the boardroom, about how the damning evidence was caught on tape. Nothing happens.

Ah, well, nevertheless

CaffeineNeeded · May 31, 2024, 4:21am

Ok maybe I’m crazy here, but Democrats must start calling for Trump to withdraw. They have to be able to make this a talking point. It is awful politics to do anything else.

MrWookie · May 31, 2024, 5:45am

No, I think that’s correct.

TheDuker · May 31, 2024, 7:08am

What’s the upside? If it’s trying to re-normalize decency that hasn’t been working very well so far.

I guess I feel like the risk is that it sort of plays right into their hands and makes you look scared. They’d make a commercial with a montage of Dems calling Trump a criminal and calling for his withdrawal and say “look how terrified they are of the mighty Trump, he’s leading in all the polls, they’d love to get rid of him, but Trump is the only thing standing between them and you.”

Plus it’s never going to happen anyway and would we really want it to? Isn’t there some fear that Nikki Haley or Josh Hawley or Elise Stefanik or whoever would just pick up the baton, dismantle Biden in the debates, and win all 50 states?

pvn · May 31, 2024, 12:51pm

in a sane world, what they should do is, when trump says dumb shit like “this is unprecedented, nobody has ever weaponized the justice system against a candidate before” immediately point out that candidates used to have the decency to withdraw if they got a fucking speeding ticket and then everyone was willing to just let it go away.

If trump had just been a good boy and not incited a riot and showed up to the inauguration and graciously shook hands with biden, everyone would 100% be fine with just ignoring all the crimes he did. That wasn’t enough for big daddy, though (of course in this world nobody is actually going to admit this is how it has worked up to now)

SensiblePerson · May 31, 2024, 4:38pm

I was just thinking the other day that guys like Trump (the very wealthy) can get away with a lot of shit, and Trump could have too, if only he hadn’t been so loud and in your face about them.

MrWookie · May 31, 2024, 5:05pm

You’re on the right track, but at the same time, Trump’s cheat code has been doing his crimes openly and without shame

goofy · May 31, 2024, 5:57pm

No, so many of them are ride or die for Trump, his base guarantees they lose with any other candidate

TheDuker · May 31, 2024, 9:08pm

I’m not so sure about that. Trump rode in on a wave of “I alone can fix it” but at this point we’ve had 8 years of unrelenting “Democrats are evil, they want to destroy America, and the republic will be saved only if they can be stopped” and 4 years of “Joe Biden is the most incompetent and most corrupt president in American history”.

I think plenty of Trump supporters will be willing to show up to vote against Joe Biden no matter who his opponent is. Especially if they think Biden’s deep state corruption and “lawfare” is the reason their guy isn’t on the ballot to begin with.

MrWookie · May 31, 2024, 9:46pm

Nah, this is just not true. They didn’t show up in droves at the midterms. They show up for Trump.

TheDuker · June 3, 2024, 3:57pm

I just saw a decent 15-second Biden campaign ad being aired in AZ (it’s strongly “trump is bad” rather than “biden is good”)

I would love to share it here but due to the incompetence of the Biden campaign, I am unable to find this ad anywhere either on the Biden campaign website or on Biden’s youtube channel.

This is not the first time this has happened.

CaffeineNeeded · June 3, 2024, 6:48pm

https://x.com/whstancil/status/1797642763347038707?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ

Anyone disagree with this strategy?

goofy · June 3, 2024, 6:54pm

Nah, and it seems like Dems want to be idiots on this