Feel like have to avoid peaking too soon like Hillary but the late convention and late arrival of Harris I really hope will prevent boredom with the ticket
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I don’t think there is a major risk in undecided/low-info people developing an aversion to Harris in the next three months that they had towards Hillary, which festered for decades.
The Obama-Trump 16-Harris voters that “just want to be on the winning team” cohort is growing.
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There sure used to be a lot of Yankees and Patriots fans didn’t there? People let the Cowboys get away with calling themselves America’s team before there was a salary cap iirc but I was a kid then. People do love a winner.
That’s an interesting topic. Let’s do a poll.
What margin of national popular vote victory would you sign for right now? That means you lock that margin in, and the chips fall where they may in the electoral college. For reference, it appears Dems need to win by somewhere around 2.5-3% to be a small favorite and 4-5% to be like 98%.
- 1%
- 1.5%
- 2%
- 2.5%
- 3%
- 3.5%
- 4%
- 4.5%
- 5%
- 6%
- 7%
- 8%
- 10%
- 12%
- Let it ride, I like the thrill of gambling with democracy
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voters
Is Shapiro huge lead in the betting markets mostly reading into having a PA rally on the schedule?
I also saw somewhere (maybe here) that he cancelled another event he was scheduled to do on the day of the announcement, whereas Walz (RIP, you were too good for this world you beautiful boy) is still scheduled for other events.
https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1819404693564445006
lmao it’s like he’s looking at his favorability rankings and thinking they’re shots under par, he’s gotta make that negative bigger
I don’t think that’s true. I read that all the VP candidates have cancelled their previously scheduled trips.
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Jesus, there are some wild polls coming in. Here’s a poll showing Harris and Trump tied: IN OHIO
https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1819418871805178103
Edit, never mind, it’s just OHIO 9. That’s actually a bad poll if Kamala really is running 10 points behind the democratic incumbent.
Biden won CD9 by 19 points.
Kaptur won it by 26 in 2020, so he ran 7 points behind her. So Kamala running 10 behind isn’t the worst thing ever. The bad news there is Kaptur polling 16 points behind her 2020 result.
The shape of the district isn’t the same.
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Seriously. I’m always ready to talk to my son about Pikachu.
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What kind of fucking asshole talks to their kid like that ever let alone in public? WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE
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Cook says Trump wins counterfactual 2020 CD9 by 3% with these lines and that the district is now R+3 from D+8 in 2021.
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Did redistricting happen in that time?
Yes. The shape and location are way different.
Yeah but this is part of the gerrymandering stuff that’s been tied up in the courts for years, so it’s not clear to me if the current CD map is the same one from 2022 or something different. That Wiki entry says
Interactive map of district boundaries since January 3, 2023
but I was under the impression new districts were already in use for the 2022 House cycle. Maybe so maybe not. I can’t seem to find a quick answer.
So that poll is a 3 point improvement for Harris over Biden’s 2020 performance? That seems great to me.