Makes me wonder if all the emails are actually consciously from the primary campaign itself or if there a collection of related but distinct groups sending them somewhat independently? Like is the campaign actually saying yep we definitely sending 5 today or does one part not really pay attention to the other or something
Apparently a bunch of that money is going to local races.
Yeah I really think NC is in play here. They’re putting up an absolute nutcase for governor. Downstream effects could push this to Biden’s column.
1 Like
Are we sure that young kids are still reliably D? I assume so but just had lunch with a 16 year old who told me she doesn’t love Disney as much anymore because they are too politically correct now.
I can probably track down a copy of Song of the South if you want
Polling shows them trending away from Biden, but nobody is sure whether to trust that polling or not.
It would be the most lolDems thing ever if the youth vote finally FINALLY turned out for once, and it was to vote for Donald Fucking Trump.
But it wouldn’t shock me.
It would shock me.
I could easily see them voting 3rd party at a higher rate than usual (or just not voting at all).
But to actually turn out AND vote for Trump? I’d be floored. And also it would be GG America.
The broad, broad consensus is that it’s bullshit and some sort of systemic error with how they fill their groups and weigh averages. There’s also quite a bit of polling showing younger people voting for Biden.
Just saw a headline that the Florida Supreme Court today…
- allowed the state’s abortion ban to go into effect
- allowed a referendum on abortion rights to be on the ballot in November
Could be wishful thinking (Florida baits us into believing every single time) but this seems bad for Trump and Rick Scott (and Rs in competitive House races). Florida being Florida I bet they find a way to sink the referendum somehow
2 Likes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/04/01/abortion-florida-supreme-court-ballot/
Is it weird that I think this is arguably the best possible outcome politically? It’s going on the November ballot in Florida…
Also a referendum on recreational marijuana will be on the ballot.
Florida gonna Florida, but that’s an absolute dream scenario for Democrats.
Just spitballing, but if Biden can ride coattails and flip Florida because of abortion and weed referendums and North Carolina because of batshit crazy governor candidate, an absolute landslide is possible. Not only that, but Biden could lose all of NV/AZ/GA/PA/MI/WI and still win.
1 Like
IIRC state referendums in florida have a higher percentage requirement than a simple 50%. They passed some state referendum that pushed the bar to 60% by like 55% or whatever. It will be uphill to get there.
That might actually be a good thing if people act like “Look we REALLY need EVERYONE to come out for abortion rights and weed”.
Even if they only get to 58%, if Biden can ride that to 51%…
1 Like
I guess that’s true, not so good for the people of florida though.
1 Like
Looks great on paper but feel like FL is just straight up lost cause forever for D president
1 Like
Looks like a great opportunity for the Democrats to nominate a young, charismatic candidate. Charlie Crist, anyone?
I think it still goes Trump, but even I (who has been super pessimistic on Florida for over a decade) can’t write this off as nothing.
People have been telling Democrats to run on legal weed for years. They’ve been saying to focus on reproductive rights for this cycle. Well here it is: a perfect storm in a purple-red state in a presidential year with a senate race too.
Biden only lost Florida by 3.5 points last time. Surely it’s worth trying?
1 Like
O yeah I mean your definitely gotta go for it, just feel like FL is what Trump dreams are made of. The rednecks and olds going to love Trump and feels like Hispanic voters getting Trumpier by the second
Man it’s going to be hard to swallow Ted Cruz and Rick Scott winning.
This abortion thing is the only possible scenario where Florida is competitive, massive gift to democrats. Iron will be along shortly to remind us all 7 judges on the FL Supreme Court are republicans