I’m not predicting that right now, but it seems to be possible.
I would argue NC and FL are probably better for us than GA right now, and it’s possible FL is now better for us than AZ as well.
In the Senate races, our best case scenario is:
Arizona: Hold, improve to Gallego
Florida: Flip Blue
Michigan: Hold
Montana: Hold
Nevada: Hold
Ohio: Hold
Pennsylvania: Hold
West Virginia: Flip Red
Wisconsin: Hold
So it’s plausible we net out even in the Senate, trading Sinema and Manchin for Gallego and whoever wins Florida. That’s like a fucking miracle compared to how the Senate was looking even a couple months ago. Obviously holding Ohio and Montana in a presidential election year is a tough lift, but Brown and Tester are excellent candidates.
I, for one, am pretty excited to see who comes out of the woodwork to gum things up in the Senate in honor of Sinemanchin if this scenario plays out.
My candidates would be Coons, Carper, Hickenlooper, Ossoff, Cortez Masto, Casey, Warner, Kaine. Wouldn’t be shocked if they go issue by issue and take turns having “real concerns” so they don’t all have to take fire constantly from supporters - although that may be seen as politically beneficial by Ossoff, Cortez Masto, and Casey in particular, and Cortez Masto said some stupid shit recently that was right wing if I recall correctly.
She opposed Adeel Mangi as a federal judge because he has a vague connection to a group that does innocence work that tried to free Mumia Abu-Jamal, or something dumb like that. (unless she also said some stupid right-wing shit recently on top of that)
Nope, that’s what I was thinking of. Gotta tip the cap to her to going out of her way to have an absolutely ridiculous stance on something that 99.9% of voters will never pay attention to.
Really not good if the “independent” guy is saying Biden is a greater threat to democracy than Trump. A lot of normies will view him as a neutral arbiter, especially since he’s left-leaning on most issues.
On the other hand, at this rate he could end up as Trump’s running mate.
The unfortunate part of this story is that cnn is now giving his primary identification as “Independent presidential candidate” instead of “anti-vax conspiracy theorist and Independent presidential candidate“.
I have a hard time faulting the media for that at this point. Like, he’s a crank on that issue, but not on everything. And if you go issue by issue, RFK represents a huge chunk of voters on most of his positions. His economic positions are all populist, being cringey on race issues puts him well within the mainstream of white men in their 60s and 70s, and being anti-vaxx puts him with nearly a third of the population - only about 70% now firmly believe vaccines are safe.
To put it another way, if you dropped him at any poker table in the country and let him talk about his positions, he’d have multiple heads nodding on every issue at most tables. He’s a pretty good proxy for how shitty/stupid a huge chunk of the electorate is.
While the positive trend is good news I find the last two lines worrying. 4% Biden->Trump voters compared to 1% Trump->Biden voters. MAGA is a cult of personality so I am not surprised 88%+ will vote for him again. Biden’s meager 84% retention rate is bad news.
4% Biden → Trump and 2% Trump → Biden (looks like 2% though it isn’t labeled) seems fine to me. Of the 12% of Biden voters saying Someone Else or Don’t Know, those are the ones to go after. But it’s a turnout game at the end of the day.
