https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1775840127685644677?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
Polling is truly useless in this context. It’s all a turnout guess and that’s all anyone is doing, guessing.
1 Like
Going to be a long year for you if every bad poll is concerning while good ones don’t matter
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1775818791164813784?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
Try this hopium, it’s fine I promise
1 Like
I think there’s ample room for skepticism about the absolute numbers at the top of polls, as modeling turnout and getting representative samples in the cell phone era are both hard. But, I argue that movement of the same poll from the same polling outfit, at least that is either outside the MOE or that is sustained over multiple polls, is still meaningful, as any dubious assumptions are at least being held constant.
2 Likes
is F&M worth a shit? don’t think I’ve heard of them
Assuming it’s Franklin and Marshall, they’re 2.4/3 on 538, a top 25% pollster.
No labels is giving up.
2 Likes
Cause the wild card is already in the race (Boobie Jr)
Propaganda works, note the IMMIGRANT FROM JAMAICA JESUS FUCKING CHRIST
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/election-2024-immigration-issue-voters-84916a17?mod=mhp
“The issue with all the people coming in illegally: It extrapolates to everything,” said Denise Hodgkins, 56, a Republican from Dalton, Ga. “It affects our economy, it affects crime, it affects drugs.”
Hodgkins, who works at the food pantry at her church, also said she thinks the migrants now living in the U.S. are getting benefits without adequately assimilating. “It used to be such a great thing to come to America and dig right in, and make a living for yourself, find things, learn the language, assimilate into this country,” she said. “And I just don’t know that the people are proud anymore to be here. Come on, this country wasn’t built on handouts.”
Cousins, an immigrant from Jamaica who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, said his more libertarian views don’t align with Trump’s and he thinks the former president frequently puts his “foot in his mouth.” But he said Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee this year, would do a better job managing the border than Biden.
“We don’t know these people. We don’t know who they are and they disappear in the country,” Cousins said. “If I wanted to do evil, I would think that that was one of the ways I could get into this country to do evil.”
We really should be incredibly grateful that the GOP didn’t pivot to being pro immigrant instead of anti immigrant. They should have cleaned up with them.
They win all kinds of immigrant votes anyway! Fucking assholes who pull up the ladder.
Really, I think it’s the other way around, actually. Hating immigrants is political dynamite in 2024 and the Republican Party’s only winning move is shit on them as hard as possible. People over-analyze Trump, his whole shtick has been kicking out immigrants from day 1 and everything else is just whatever. They don’t even care about tax cuts any more, they just want blood.
This should be a bigger story, it’s the Platonic ideal of the consulting class grift: they made of with millions of dollars and didn’t field a single candidate. It’s hilarious. At least the Lincoln Project gave us ads with Trump making farting noises, these No Labels guys had even fewer ideas than that.
Yeah this shit is nuts. My wife’s family is Jamaican and they despise Trump. Oddly enough some of them got amnesty from the law Reagan passed, and said it was easy to sponsor other family/friends to move to the US back then.
Republicans will complain out of one side of their mouth how everything is so expensive because people won’t work for slave wages, but then complain about immigration out of the other side. This was especially funny recently reading a comment from an obvious RWNJ about how they couldn’t find any labor for their farm 
Being anti-immigration is probably the single dumbest of all the incredibly super dumb right wing positions. This country was built on immigration and will collapse without immigration.
1 Like
So RFK Jr says if he wins, he’ll won’t a special prosecutor to look into prosecutorial misconduct against Trump, he thinks the prosecutions are probably just politically motivated.
He says Trump was delusional to think the election was stolen, but 1/6 clearly wasn’t an insurrection.
Troubling that he’s going to be seen as an impartial arbiter on this, but probably overall a good development as he seems to be angling more for Trump voters than Biden voters despite having a left wing populist economic platform.
He’s fundamentally more likely to pull from Trump because conspiracy moron types always lean more right.
Yeah, make sure your voter outreach isn’t hitting the demographics that are going to have the most questions about voter registration and eligibility.I hate that I have to cheer for the Dems because they objectively deserve to lose every election for the next 40 years they’re so worthless at basic politics.
Most U.S. citizens report a campaign contacted them in 2020, but Latinos and Asians less likely to say so
And I pledge that if I marry Natalie Portman, I won’t become a professional actor because I don’t want to encroach on her work.
3 Likes