Measuring the quality of trumps talks with the press… fourth grade lol
https://x.com/ok_post_guy/status/1810513851127038421
https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1810529298203173101?t=kQsF6zIG5mTczJgX24vopA&s=19
Next devastating event will likely be after the convention and everything will be locked.
Debate chance 2 will be as bad. Probably worse because Trump will be even more prepared to take senile biden.
Wow sir, those are great numbers - look at how close Michigan is Mr President!
So I’ve been pretty ambivalent about what the actual next best step is, my guiding principle for my bets has been ‘Nothing ever happens’ and ‘people don’t give up power voluntarily’. I’m pissed at my bets on the general election because those will have much higher variance, even if the +1000 was too juicy to pass.
I do think you’re underestimating Biden though. This post basically admits that Biden, or at least his team, managed to effectively outmaneuver quite a few powerful people in congress. I don’t agree with your framing of it as some indictment of Biden, it looks like the opposite to me.
Random thought spurred by Whitmer saying she wouldn’t run even if Biden leaves: who wants this job?
Like, anyone not named Harris who steps in as the nominee (whether anointed or whether by winning Ezra’s wet dream mini-primary) is looking at a really uphill battle of trying to make a normal campaign out of this clusterfuck and beating Trump at a moment when your party looks like a giant national embarrassment. That’s a tough ask! And on top of that, I have to imagine anyone who gets the D nomination and loses the general is cooked forever, their career is done, they’re not becoming president ever (Dems don’t carry the cults of personality that led Rs to run it back with Trump without ever seriously considering any alternative).
So if you’re, uh, Gavin Newsom and you think you’re hot shit and can win the presidency in your lifetime…is this the election you want to use that chance on? Seems risky! Might the best Democratic candidates all have similar thoughts and not want to risk their careers on this broken election, making it so that the only people who might actually want this job are the ones flawed enough to worry they might never get a better chance?
The far bigger problem, remains the political press of this country, which seemingly wants Trump to win
It’s a longshot biden is going to survive an event we have almost never seen? A candidate being unable to speak and not bowing out?
That’s not a positive. I dont see how Biden ever convinces any undecideds or people who normally don’t vote to vote for him. He is well behind in the polling so he needs a seismic shift to win. It’s hard to see that happening right now. It’s not impossible and Biden has a tiny amount of non zero equity. But it will take a miracle for him to win from here
No matter what the media did, fair or unfair, will put the toothpaste in the tube. Rational americans do not want biden to be president until 2029. And i have yet to hear a rational argument why he should be.
Most of your post is opinion, but this is flat out untrue. Summer polling would have Dukakis winning, Clinton beating Trump by 8, Biden winning by 10, Obama tied with Romney, McCain ahead of Obama.
There’s a very long way to go in this race, and it doesn’t need some unprecedented shift. That doesn’t even get into how polling has been exceptionally weird this cycle.
The reason why it’s hard for you to see it is that you’re too caught up in the current news cycle.
Dems need to win the popular vote to win the EC becauae it is skewed towards small states. The overall polling is bad nationwide and the best pollsters have Biden getting his ass kicked in most of the swing states.
Why should i not believe that? Why should i think Biden could make inroads from here when he cant speak outside of the prompter?
I think the opportunity to be the one who vanquishes Trump is probably tempting, as well as the chance to skip the long primary process and the year+ of Fox News trashing you. Plus if Kamala becomes the nominee and wins you have to wait until 2032, most likely.
I sent this to CW the other day but i think a round table on discord or any other format to discuss this is easier than all this shit.
Biden has a non zero chance to win.
Cuse puts it at 5%. I would put it at less than that but not absolute zero.
I just dont see how the american public can ever see him as anything but a dottering fool. If that is the perception in 130 days we are wrecked.
ETA- it’s probably important to realize we all want the same thing. Trump defeated. The reason this is polarizing is there isn’t a consensus on the best way to win.
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He’s losing by 6-8 points and needs to win by 2.5. so he needs a ~9.5 point swing. That’s a huge one.
What’s the strategy that gets him there? Remember he’s only at his best from 10a-4p and doesn’t want many events after 8pm, and still has to run the country. Also he needs a prompter ~always.
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Best strategy I’ve got is to fit him for hearing aids, say that’s why he struggled so hard in the debate, he couldn’t hear… Then cheat and have the “hearing aids” be feeding him word for word debate responses from Mayor Pete… and hope the GOP isn’t smart enough to insist on radio frequency jamming and nobody leaks it lol…
That’s how fucked I think we are.
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Bottom line is this
Kamala might surprise us. And have a decent shot to win. I actually hate Kamala but I would go all in supporting her because she is the best current chance.
Biden stays in he is 20:1 or more. Some smart people here and on UP already have escape plans but I don’t.
Kamala is a wild card. By that first week in November who know. But if we just settle on Biden now becauae loyalty this election is over. And it’s over with a terrible senate map
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Also because the same people - from the White House to elected officials to donors to rank and file of the party apparatus to Internet posters - who told us months ago he was fine when we said he shouldn’t run are the same ones saying it’s crazy to replace him and things will be fine.
They haven’t inspired me to trust their judgment.
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Why would they care if they betray their voters? It’s basically the Edem platform right?
I think Kamala can win just by hammering abortion, democracy, prosecutor vs felon, and Project 2025.
Unfortunately I also don’t have an escape plan in motion yet, I guess we have a Plan A and a if the shit hits the fan Plan B, but Plan B would suck a lot for us.
All that said, if Biden stays in, the party shouldn’t spend much on the presidential race and should go all-in down ballot. It might actually help to have a young independent for young voters to show up for just to get their down ballot votes. My best copium for the White House at this point if Biden stays in is a Mark Cuban type independent run.
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Self-enrichment and self-preservation is the eDem platform.
I’m not a PodJohn apologist, but the data speaks for itself. Handwaving legitimate concerns by a majority of Dem / Biden voters as “media hysteria” is disingenuous and lazy.
https://x.com/jonfavs/status/1810321715689603420?s=46&t=mdG4vqCfpbP4Xp4esdQ98A
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