Correct, and we need the number to get to D +390K to feel good.
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Thanks!
And roughly what split is needed for that?
I don’t know, but Smithley is updating the split and the margin daily I think.
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For those splits, add the three total votes to get a total of about 266k
188k out of 265k is ~70.5% and so on.
If we assume all ballots are returned then the Ds project to 960k and the Rs 440k.
(Of course the D ballots won’t be 100% D; and not 100% will be returned-same for Rs).
I’m counted as an R ballot since the only primary I cared about was anti-Trump in 2016 and never changed that. I will have the mail in ready to go but plan to vote on Election Day assuming no work travel comes up.
But we are at least on the right side if we need 390k or whatever to overcome the R lead on day of voting. And PA takes awhile to count the mail-ins since they can’t start until Election Day or even maybe after the polls close?
He’s some Hopium/copium
Cliffs -Harris overperforming in a district Trump won plus a douchebag congress toad is in danger. Supposedly.
Idk what is happening. Just spitballing that the local adjustments aren’t the same as the state or national adjustments, cause there sure seems an incongruity of certain local races showing significant D improvement vs 2020 but then at the national level the same or some retreat from 2020. My number sense alarm bells are going off but I don’t know the behind the scenes voodoo that is done to adjust representation.
Susquehanna is a decent pollster, too. That poll would indicate a landslide. That poll even being within the MOE should be a great data point for us.
So, best I can tell, Kamala (including her Super PAC) has about a 2 to 1 edge in cash over Trump, and she’s already running at near saturation level in advertising in swing states.
She’s ironically (and thankfully) got the opposite problem she had in her DA race when she was behind and short on cash and had to go all in on a negative ad and hope it worked. She’s got to get creative down the stretch to spend it all.
My guess is we’re going to see her Super PAC running a shitload of Trump unfit ads of all types - the J6 stuff, but also the too old and impaired stuff that worked so well on Biden. She can try to stay positive in the ones she has to approve on camera, and they can also expand the map pretty aggressively.
My guess is they didn’t want to oversaturate too soon, and also know that the media cycle on whatever their best line of attack is may only be a couple weeks. So they waited.
Meanwhile I’m guessing that at a minimum, Trump’s internals aren’t good. He seems more desperate than last time. Some of the shots he’s going to take when the demented old man ass start are going to trigger him to flail more.
Finally, Kamala has enough cash to consider just buying 30-60 minutes of network primetime like Obama did in 2008. She can make it a town hall that she basically controls fully, an extended ad/speech, a mini convention, whatever they think is best.
If she can hype it up enough to get a big audience, it seems like a really good way to make a closing argument.
Combine this with what has to be a better ground game than Trump by a mile, and I think we may see the momentum swing back her way shortly.
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This works better than what you intended to write tbh.
Damn, auto correct got my ads.
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Feeling much better after Kamala’s fuck the beltway media blitz. Reminds me this is a very smart campaign and more importantly seeing her smiling, laughing and dunking is elite for the vibes.
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Trump is saturating PA with taxpayer paid surgery for sex changes ads.
He might not have as much money but he is spending it pretty effectively.
Create a bogeyman
Demonize
Hang it on your opponent
Rinse
Repeat
That doesn’t seem like it’s going to do super well outside his base which is admittedly like 40% of the population?
Does this account for the dark money super PAC spending? I listened to a podcast yesterday that talked about the hundreds of millions of dollars Elon is putting in the election through a super PAC and I’m sure a bunch of these rich fucks are funneling tons of cash to the Trump campaign through their 401(c)3 or whatever they’re called.
Average Joe makes $50 donation to a campaign and their name is part of the public record. Billionaires funnel hundreds of millions to election campaigns through shell corporations and remain forever anonymous while gaining infinite influence. Nice system we got there, folks.
These people seem to think that more than 1% of the population is following the coverage of every single time a candidate opens their mouth and then try to fit every little statistical variance in polls to correlate to this or that comment
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Worried it may sway some folks
I’ve heard a lot of white fathers who aren’t dyed in the wool MAGA who are very concerned about the trans/grooming panic.
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I’m not sure what Super PACs it counts, but I do recall Trump being at a cash disadvantage in 2020 then getting all he needed in bulk from billionaires down the stretch. Could definitely happen again.
This supports my thesis that Republican voters are in on the gag, they know he’s lying, they don’t care because they hate minorities.