One of the copium stories I tell myself is there women out there who live with these dudes so when pollster calls them at home asking who they voting for say Trump but may pull the trigger for Harris in private
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Yeah “divorced dad” feels like it trumps (pun intended) all other forms of identity
The guy with the RFJ Jr. sign in my neighborhood has finally taken it down.
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Let us know when he puts the Trump sign up.
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Holy fucking shit. Am I reading that right? This point in 2020 was D+4, and this time it’s D+24?
I think you are interpreting that correctly, but 2020 numbers may be for the entirety of mail voting and 2024 numbers just up to this point?
Eta: I know the tweet says compared to this point, but the actual graph doesn’t make that clear.
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Also there seems to be something weird with the unaffiliated previously being so high? Did sow their change as far as people registering parties
Aren’t direct comparisons with 2020 mail-in an uncertainty due to 2020 being the COVID year?
Yeah definitely.
Gotta admit it’s going to be pretty funny when literally every single swing state is straight up tied week before election and Nate/et al get to write their long winded essays about how all their analytics point to a 50/50 race
And then when Kamala wins them all we’ll hear about how that actually aligns with their predictions and models.
This made me wonder how closely the polling errors correlated by states historically and don’t think I realized how much of it was basically just WI
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Seeing these numbers made me realize again that the last two elections were decided by razor thin margins. A coin flip for this one seems appropriate.
Looking very much forward to our month-long wait for results after a 2+ year campaign cycle!
Keep seeing articles about Trump trashing Detroit in Michigan, does that play well in a lot of the state?