CBS News poll gives hope.
Something seems off. Abortion is the #1 issue, yet they’d vote for the idiot that wants to ban it?
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1845491708483498196
Why do they keep putting these assholes on TV? She tried, but this mother fucker just won’t answer.
It got banned under Biden, some people are really dumb.
This is ultimately the problem in this election.
https://x.com/SteveKornacki/status/1845450314129817746
Embed isn’t quite working. Impact on your family of Biden policies 25% helped, 45% hurt. Trump 44% helped, 31% hurt.
Normal people don’t blame Trump for COVID, they think it was like an act of God no president could have prevented or reduced the impact of. They remember 2017-2019 as being pretty good economically and peaceful, and 2021-2024 as being not so good and not so peaceful. And a lot of people will shrug and say, “I don’t like the tweets/racism/dumbassery, but I have to make a business decision.”
This is why mocking him is the way - it highlights that he’s a buffoon and puts attention on that, and makes people feel silly for voting for a clown.
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I think I’m coming around to agreeing with the polling takes/articles that we in midst of a realignment where educated vs not educated is going to become the essential distinction over time. Not to say I necessarily think Trump going to make the 15% gain among black voters this election but I think it’s coming. I didn’t read the article but think the claim is this actually will be a net positive for Ds though over time
The problem is we’re out of time if he wins.
I saw one of those Alito “APPEAL TO HEAVEN” flags in the wild today, it looks just as dumb as you’d imagine.
Seems Harris starting to make a play at the demented/fit to serve angle last few days. Wonder if she worried that nothing else sticking to Trump or if intended to wait to time this towards the end to hopefully get some narrative going on short enough notice that people won’t forget prior to election.
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Harris has issued a series of challenges to Trump so far in her remarks. She is challenging him to release a medical report on his health — [like she did on Saturday]— do a 60 Minutes interview — which she did last week — and meet her in another debate. She says his campaign staffers are trying to hide the fact that he is “too weak and unstable” to be president.
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https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1845581815337079099?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
Now do this for every swing state.
“Donald trump and I want to make it easier to make the choice of life”
Hoo boy. We all remember the days of yesteryear when Roe ruled the land and everybody was forced to have an abortion. Nobody had the choice to give birth. So glad the pro choice trump/vance ticket will be giving women the choice to give birth.
Just absolutely fucking disgusting framing, as is on brand I guess.
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So does this mean Harris going to open night with huge lead in MI and then it going to erode down to hopefully still a win as night goes on?
If I’m reading it correctly, I think it just means the early vote ballots will be prepped so they can be counted at the same rate as Election Day votes, instead of after like they have been in the past. But not sure if I’m 100% reading that correctly either.
A couple random anecdotes from the past couple weeks.
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I have a Facebook acquaintance from MI who I’ve never seen post anything remotely political, and I couldn’t have even told you where they stood politically. But after the Trump Detroit comments, they posted a very angry commentary about Trump on Facebook.
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I had to drive through some traditional red states recently, and not through major city areas. I saw probably 3x as many Harris/Walz signs as Trump. Do I think Harris is going to win these red states? No.
But both of these are just a few more examples of where enthusiasm is in this election right now. And hopefully that massive enthusiasm gap turns into a turnout gap.
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Saw a ton of Trump lawn signs in ginormous houses driving through exurban Ohio today.
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Been thinking about polls. Wish a couple of the bigger places would run 3-4 parallel polls (same methodology at same time) and give us some real idea of how variable they are.
Treating each one of this as a representative discreet sample which requires some explanation of every change is maddening without some real idea of the variance is (not margin of error, but actual variance).
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Yeah I was thinking about this other day. Also maybe there could be some consensus on what the smallest poll size is that we care about. Let’s say it’s 500 voters then anyone running a poll with 2K would release it as 4 separate 500 polls.
So we got CBS+3 and NYT tied both today?
There’s one Trump flag in my neighborhood, and it flies on a house that was recently remodeled and has a BMW parked in the driveway.
I honestly feel like the turnout assumptions of all these polls are just set to ‘what happened in 2020’.