Look at the result, then look at the source.
https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1846338024507879751?t=JwFPD6cdER6G0uxhpId2hQ&s=19
https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1846348674873311697?t=ZubUeMCkiQavw1NCB4LD-Q&s=19
Let’s fucking go Georgia!
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WaPo: Georgia judge blocks requirement that counties hand-count ballots (gift link)
Same judge as the other case mentioned earlier, Republican appointee.
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I know there are a lot of predictions of violence when Trump loses this year.
However without any levers of power, I don’t see how we get another Jan 6. There be a fortress around the Capitol.
Could some one off state things happen? I don’t think state governors are going to be a problem. Exactly Georgia has a republican governor in one of the 7 swing states?
I think 7/7 call out the guard asap. Not happening anyplace else.
Now one off terrorism events. That’s what concerns me.
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And Kemp has clearly shown he has no interest in messing with election results.
NV also has a republican governor, but he is also a more relatively moderate non election denier type of republican.
They’ll probably pull their shit on election day this year. Intimidation and interference at election sites.
He has no interest in messing with election results post hoc.
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WaPo: Here’s how Donald Trump would lower grocery prices, in his own words (gift link)
More of these “just print the crazy shit he’s saying verbatim” stories please.
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I agree, people don’t think of grocery.
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Guess we will just have to wait and see if Kamala can impress undecided voters with mastery of policy in the face of such brilliance.
I’d guess that he had a BLT for lunch but I don’t see him as an LT type of guy.
I mean isn’t higher turnout pretty much always beneficial for Dems? I haven’t been all that optimistic lately, but I feel like this is actually very very good news, along with the slow trickle of data with the returned PA ballots. Surprised it hasn’t been talked about more.
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I’m wondering why I don’t see any discussion from the Nate/etc polling people about the early vote stuff? Like do they not think it not predictive? A “threat” making the model seem less important/etc?
It’s this. Nate has no idea how to model it because he’s never been anything more than a glorified poll aggregator. So it’s better for his brand to just pretend other data doesn’t exist.
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The polling models take this into account indirectly, as polls will ask people if they’ve already voted and for whom, so then they pass the LV screen and such. Early voting should make polling more accurate. Meanwhile, divining outcomes from early ballot returns is really hard. One early vote at the beginning of early voting is a vote that won’t come later in early voting or on election day, so there’s no guarantee that lots of early voting at the start will equal lots of early voting later or lots of votes on election day. It’d be nice to make that generalization that the early voting returns indicates enthusiasm across the whole Democratic party, but consider, for example, a case where enthusiasm overall was mediocre but one reliably voting constituency was really passionate about early voting, say, older Black folks, who often would be “Souls to the Polls” voters who’d vote after church on the Sunday before election day but now really want to cast their ballots immediately for a Black woman. That might look like a glut of voters now, but we won’t see the corresponding trough until much later. Knowing only the partisan identification of voters doesn’t mean you captured a representative sample of that party, or even that early voting behavior is a good predictor of overall turnout.
I’d say more turnout is better, all else being equal, but it’s hard to translate that into knowing how many percentage points it’s worth. Even the above “firewall” numbers aren’t all that meaningful until we get to compare the total early vote by party with the total early vote by party in 2020 and 2016, and even then, we’d have to consider that overall voting behavior might have changed. Maybe 2020 was an exception and Dems voted by mail more, or maybe people realized how great it was and now vote more by mail, increasing the “firewall” but reducing election day numbers. It might be interesting to check if any pollsters are asking how people voted in 2020 vs. how they plan to this year.
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This is where I’m at. I keep telling my statsbro friend the models can get fucked right now. He’s having an absolute meltdown to the point he said he’s almost rooting for Trump to win because MUH MODEL can’t be wrong. It’s infallible!