Great article, on the campaign trail with Tim Walz
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yeah, having a “goal” and doing things to “achieve” that goal seems extremely suspicious when you are worshiping a guy who is 100% controlled by lizard-brain id
Lol that’s a nice one two punch, and about as good of a dig at Trumps cognition as we’ll ever get from the NYT.
Feels promising. Very promising, doesn’t it?
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Now do MI and WI
I’m very much looking forward to Kamala doing Rogan after the Fox interview. These guys have totally misrepresented her and now she gets to sucker punch them and I want to slow it down and watch it over and over on repeat because it soothes my brain.
You can’t tell everyone someone is an incompetent nobody and then have them come in and knock you out on a counterpunch to your big gotcha bullshit question. That isn’t compatible with what you’ve been selling your victims the last several months.
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All the Twitter bros say the early vote returned thing is meaningless, but it can’t be bad!
How many of said twitter bros are running substacks that analyze polling results?
I don’t Twitter but is it a matter of them saying past elections these numbers haven’t correlated with final result or that Ds aren’t running up big enough numbers for it to mean something?
I do tend to think that this stuff is always meaningless unless it comes with some analysis about what these numbers are relative to expectation. All this is telling me is that:
- More registered Dems are choosing to vote by mail than registered Repubs
- A higher percentage of outstanding mail ballots have been return by registered Dems than registered Repubs
So what? Is 48% to 40% good? I’m assuming Dems voting by mail are likely to be younger and more highly educated than Repubs voting by mail. Maybe 48% to 40% is bad? Maybe it should be a higher discrepancy so early in the process?
And forget about trying to compare anything to 2020 which was the height of COVID. Also what is the expected edge on ballots returned by Dems vs. Repubs? It may not be symmetrical.
Several the posts have specifically mentioned +360k (or 400k) differential on these returned ballots is considered an important goal but I don’t know the background on where that number comes from
They’re estimating a similar election day turnout to 2020 which was +10 GOP. With a 400k buffer going into election day, dems should have enough to win.
Yeah it does feel like there are assumptions piled on top of assumptions with all this stuff. Although I’m finding it hard to picture a scenario where election day is higher raw turnout overall than 2020 and more than a 10-point margin.
Yeah I feel like 2020 is where you would see peak differential between R / D in person / mail voting as at that time lot of Ds still had genuine safety concerns about crowds but wonder if data will play that out
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Yeah I find it hard to draw any strong conclusions based off this tower of assumptions. I could see E Day having higher in person turnout in '24, for sure. Have we seen the comp on raw number of mail ballots requested this year vs '20?
Yes. I’m fairly certain they’ve factored that into this as well.
In my prior post I also intended to say similar ratio of D/R on election day - not raw numbers.