Assuming any 2024 PA election day R/D split based on superficial analysis seems highly flawed. Like here in GA there were big headlines about how Day 1 of early voting was TWO TIMES THE HIGHEST FIRST DAY EVER (~120k vs. ~300k). And it’s like, yeah, obviously when the comparison point is pre-vaccine COVID era when everyone was dropping their ballots in 24/7 available drop boxes (all of which have since been made illegal by the GOP).
I am not saying his analysis is superficial, but I’m not sure he’s shown his work.
I was looking back at past 538 average and found interesting in 2016 that top 2 candidates only accounted for 87.5% of vote in their final average but now with Nate they have 95.7% , did he change how they doing averages or something?
Okay it’s officially over. My Trumpy btc bro acquaintance told me Kamala is toast.
Dems hate her, Trump is much more likeable, Dems think he’s funny, he’s leading with black men in every swing state, and even Biden is voting for Trump! Bitcoin is pricing in his win because it “smells freedom”.
Yeah, I think 2016 poles overestimated third party support but Gary Johnson + Jill Stein still combined for 4% in final results. This year there doesn’t seem to be any third party energy since RFK exited, I couldn’t tell you who the lolibertarian nominee is and I think everyone correctly clocks Jill Stein as a joke by now.
Feel like this a systemic polling issue. RFK was never going to get 10% or whatever he had over the summer. Makes me think there a lot less room for large polling errors this time around
He’s doing some analysis but it’s probably a lot of vibes tbh. The only guy I trust to translate early voting into election results is Jon Ralston for NV because he’s been successful for several elections now. The rest of these guys take with a huge grain of salt.
I really think everyone going to be shook for 2 weeks then the final set of polls going to have Harris up in all the swing states. Donnie dementia narrative starting to get legs but takes time
———
“I’ve been hearing reports that his team, at least, is saying he’s suffering from exhaustion, and that’s apparently the excuse for why he’s not doing interviews. And of course, he’s not doing the CNN town hall. He refuses to do another debate,” she told reporters on Friday. “And, you know, look, being president of the United States is probably one of the hardest jobs in the world, and so we really do need to ask, if he’s exhausted being on the campaign trail, is he fit to do the job? And I think that’s a question that is an open-ended question that he needs to answer.”
Harris went on to assert that Trump is “unfit for this office,” while reiterating her belief that he’s “unstable” and “a danger to our democracy,” citing former Trump administration officials who have criticized Trump in the years after he left office.
s ready!