Do you think the real value is 14% (over 50% more than 2020)? Your posting suggests you don’t. Like why won’t you split the difference so that each of you theoretically has an even edge?
Let’s not turn this into a derail over a dumb hypothetical bet. If and when the polls are proven right on election day that’ll be enough of a W for me.
(and an L for the country 
)
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I mean the polling as of today indicates she’d likely win, albeit narrowly. Sounds like a W to me.
The only thing less likely than a massive shift of blacks away from Harris is a concomitant shift of whites and hispanics towards Harris to make up for it.
This is just like the other parts of poll which showed Biden or Harris doing much worse with the youth vote while doing much better with the old vote. That’s not happening either.
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I mean I don’t remember the top lines for all of these polls but I’m guessing she was ahead in at least some of them, so there’s shifts happening somewhere. The great thing is in a few months we’ll get to find out who’s right.
Seems similar to the theme in the “47 seconds” NYT article about her AG race. (I know nothing about the race otherwise so no idea if this some revisionist history.
“ So they decided to plow practically every last dollar into airing the double-dipping ad exclusively in Los Angeles — hoping to cut into Mr. Cooley’s home turf. They did not have enough cash to book the final three weeks all at once. “We were spending it as it came in,” Mr. Brokaw said.
Still, the ad felt like it was “everywhere,” said Mr. Leonard, who stopped watching television with his wife to avoid his “nasally British accent” asking the double-dipping question.
For her part, Ms. Harris had dreamed of closing the campaign on a high note, with advertising about her record or her vision. But they did not have enough money to do both.
She ultimately greenlit the all-negative recommendation. “This is eternally to Kamala Harris’s credit,” Mr. Smith said. “She literally bought into shoving all the chips into the middle of the table. You will rarely find a candidate able to make that gutsy of a decision.””
I saw something interesting on Bluesky maybe a week ago pointing out that 1/3 of the 65+ electorate from 2016 is dead now, and something like half of the current 65+ electorate was under 65 in 2016. It might make sense for 65+ to do better if that comports with generational shifts, rather than age shifts.
The deaths will skew conservative too (anti-vaxx, anti-mask).
65+
2020 52-47 R
2022 55-43 R
Not really much movement.
You also have to be careful about a few assumptions here.
- The people dying will skew older and frailer, prob less likely to vote imo
- The age group below isn’t super different (50-49 in 2020, 54-44 in 2022)
Meh, I’m not sure you ever will tbh. I read something somewhere once about how the exit-polling by demographic group is notoriously unreliable.
Unfortunately I don’t think this is true either. (Apologies for continuing to cite “something I read once,”) but the statistics were that the old tend to skew conservative/republican, not because people get more conservative/republican as they age, but because poor people die younger, and the rich live longer due to better access to health care, etc. Even dumb anti-vax rich people will live longer in the aggregate than a poor vaccinated person.
I have now seen about a hundred videos of Walz doing different folksy things which are obviously staged and scripted. The campaign is really overdoing it and he stops being authentic which is what everybody loves about it.
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I assume this calculated to some extent as they know folks who watch everything like us aren’t going to ditch him so they playing to the folks who may just see one of these so even if they dial up the absolute most electorally effective quantity it’s going to seem way overkill to us
It’s less reliable than top line numbers and it’s hard to account for early/mail in voting but it’s got a big advantage of being closer to the election and a sample of 15k+ instead of ~600-1200
I was at a Nebraska game a couple of years ago and hadn’t had a Runza in a while, so I got one.
My memory far exceeded the actual experience…
It seems like he is probably still relatively unknown to a lot of voters, so they still have to “sell” his persona.
I don’t think that last part was true from 2020-2024 necessarily, and plenty of the anti-vaxx anti-mask doorknob licking folks were middle class. Make a mental picture in your head of the people at Trump rallies. That’s the type of people were talking about here.
https://x.com/acyn/status/1825303531823530039?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
This man is quite the political talent.
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