https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1826078034182500505
Fashion question: are quasi-glossy black business suits becoming a thing? Gray and navy blue have always seemed to dominate for decades, outside of the occasional tan anyway, but you never saw much black outside of funerals or little kids. But Doug and Barack both show up in black, almost tuxedo-texture without the satin trimmings.
Live and learn!
Obama’s “one america” speech rings hollow today.
Obama’s suit was charcoal imo, but the lighting did make the lapels look weird at certain angles but I’m pretty sure it was a normal worsted wool suit. I missed Doug so I can’t say but I doubt he did anything extraordinary
I’ve got to say, I’m starting to get the vibe that the people running the party believe it’s going to be a blowout, but they don’t want a repeat of 2016 and they’re trying to keep everyone motivated. Some of the undertones tonight pointed that way imo, and I have the same point of view when I analyze the state of the race.
We need to run hard through the finish line and avoid any large stumbles, but I think this race gets called before midnight on the East Coast on Election Night and the sicko late night sweat is over the Montana Senate seat.
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I’ve seen really, really dark gray, that might as well be black, but never tuxedo black.
I appreciate your hopium, but it seems like every time I just start to believe the same thing, I see some poll that has NV -3, AZ -2, PA and WI dead heat, or some other BS. I’d feel a lot better if the poll numbers were closer to Biden’s 2020 lead down the stretch (half of which still turned out to be wrong in his favor by more than the MOE).
I agree that the proper strat is to go hard in the paint until Election Day and don’t let up.
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Even if it’s not tux black, it’s been unusual to see such dark gray suits, no? Or have I missed out on a trend that had been developing earlier?
nah really dark grey is very standard, the more medium and light greys are a relatively* recent trend. 30 years ago wearing light grey would have been almost as bad as the infamous tan suit scandal
- less recent than dumb dress sneakers or even light brown shoes
I don’t think so, but only because the networks/AP/etc. are going to be very careful, even more so than 2020. That super-early call of Arizona by the AP was really bad.
it was the fox decision desk wasn’t it?
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Yes
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Yeah, really dark gray is not that uncommon. The mid 90s was probably the time I was around the most people in suits and plenty of dark grays even then.
I’m gonna die on the hill that it was a fine call. It was correct. Is that results oriented? Perhaps. But it is just as results oriented to say, “Well it was so close, so it had to be a bad call.”
When these guys make these calls, they do it when what they see reaches a certain threshold of certainty. Once that hits, then they call it. The call absolutely includes times when it was close but their pick still pulls it out.
So, the only way to determine if their call was bad would be to have access to their methodology. For example, if they have a monkey clicking buttons, then the call is bad even the the monkey happens to go 50/50. On the other hand if they have some sort of rigorous statistical analysis, then that can be good or bad depending on the details. Presumably none of the critics have access to that, so the entirety of the criticism is just results-oriented. And if you are going to be results-oriented, it’s very difficult to fault them if they were correct.
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Maybe, but at the very least, we’ll feel pretty comfortable early IMO. I think Florida gets their counting done very quickly, so even if we lose that, if it’s a tight race there we can draw some strong conclusions. Or if NC and/or GA are a big enough margin to call without waiting for the mail-in ballots, we basically know.
I guess it’s possible we win comfy in those states and lose the blue wall and then it comes down to NV/AZ, but even then it’s a situation where we’re sitting on like 258 EVs with five states left and two put us over by themselves while any two others would also get us over.
I just think that the race is as close now as it’s going to get, barring a black swan or a big fuck up by the Harris/Walz campaign.
More than anything I think what matters about the state of play for the campaigns right now is the overall trend. At a minimum to reverse the trend Donald would have to stop being Donald or something very bad would have to happen on the Democratic side.
I don’t see it. Donald is going to keep fucking up and the Harris/Walz campaign is going to keep doing what they’re currently doing. I’m anticipating the possibility that it’ll make sense for me to door knock in Texas. Probably not but it could happen lol.
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