Might be different with the other states but I think everyone had permanently written Florida off years ago regardless of polling
We’re actually getting liberal rural diner expeditions this cycle!
https://x.com/harris_wins/status/1828846784464203930?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
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MSNBC, not NYT. Doesn’t count.
The key to getting diner safari stories is having support in diners frequented by rural white Americans, aka “real Americans.”
That annoyance notwithstanding, it’s great that Kamala has support among that group.
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Gift link:
It’s so hard to keep up with the firehose of news stories and crazy details in this election, like I missed this and lol what the fuck this is so transparent:
The Post reported that Kennedy had used the address of a friend’s house in Katonah, N.Y. to vote in multiple elections and file his campaign papers, even though “he is not the owner of the million-dollar, in-arrears property, does not show up in resident searches for it, and some longtime neighbors—and even local authorities—were shocked at the notion it’s his home.” In New York state court this month, the homeowner, Barbara Moss, testified that the day after the Post story ran, Kennedy had paid her a check for $6,000, representing a year’s worth of unpaid $500 monthly rent on her guest bedroom. The New York Times reported that “[a] photo of the spare bedroom displayed at the hearing showed only a few of Mr. Kennedy’s possessions, including what he thought was a photo of himself and Mick Jagger; the bed, bedding and furniture were all Ms. Moss’s, he conceded.”
(it also notes this isn’t just academic, as he and his VP are constitutionally ineligible from both being from California)
Aside from that, good article reviewing the general RFK campaign
Everyone knows no one eats in diners except for RNC operatives.
Not fucking great, folks.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1828811665388847497?t=Mvrul7XZiH5-4fPW_ClttA&s=19
Again here’s some Hopium to counter
Yeah, it’s a flip. Gun to my head I’d say this is the most likely electoral map:
Probably NV red as well. PA is going to be within a point either way IMO. We’re in the mix and certainly much better than we were under Biden, but this is not a blowout election. Everything is going to come down to a few thousand voters in PA.
If you want some hopium though:
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1828920493879214528
GA + AZ is enough to counterbalance PA. I find it highly unlikely that she wins GA in a universe where she loses PA, but I suppose anything is possible.
The ticket-splitting answers from that poll are wild:
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Steady lads, the election isn’t tomorrow. Lot of people still don’t know who Harris is, half a billion worth of ads going to do more than it usually does imo
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I assume the polls are not factoring this in, which would be good. Not sure how they model registration and turnout, but I’m pretty sure they’re lagging this data. There’s definitely a chance we get a big polling miss in our favor, but it’s also messing with my usual anecdotal data of poker table chat that I’ve gone from a swing county in a swing state to one of the bluest parts of one of the bluest states.
But man, a lot of old white guys talking shit on Trump lately that I’ve seen.
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So somehow we’re supposed to believe 14% of Arizonans are Trump/Gallego voters? That’s wild. And 12% in Nevada for Trump/Rosen?
My guess is the gap is not that big and it’s not in our favor - those Senate blowouts seem unlikely. NC governor is a different story.
Are there seriously a lot of people who don’t know who Harris is? Maybe she needs to pull a page out of Warnock’s book and make an intro ad with puppies.
I ask lot my patients if they keeping up with news/sports and multiple a day currently know Biden and Trump names but say “that lady” is running now. Not as a pejorative but they just not sure who she is. Granted I work with a very skewed subset of population who probably unlikely voters but I think that they know Trump/Biden but only vaguely aware existence of Harris represents something real
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I’m still optimistic about this, but in any case, WI and MI should not be bluer than NH, NJ, ME, VA.
True, I didn’t really pay attention to the shading.
The Senate polling is absolutely bonkers. Lol some of these GOP candidates.
Wouldn’t it be 7% Trump/Gallego voters and 6% Trump/Rosen? That seems more believable, but still wild given how partisan politics are these days.
Saw this gem in a rfk article, politics is a funny thing
Michigan, a key [battleground state], said it was too late for Kennedy to withdraw as the nominee of the Natural Law Party in the state. Kennedy got on the ballot by convincing the small party to nominate him, earning only two votes.