The polls all look to be tightening, with more polls showing trump winning or closing the gap nationally and in the swing states, what am I missing?
Lame…
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Nate’s got her at all time high, think actually leading PA polling and having NE-2 locked down
The polls are all over the place. It seems like anything from “Jesus Christ, she did worse than Hillary” to “Holy shit, this thing is going to be called at 11 PM Eastern” is on the table.
Vance’s advance team still doing great work
“ Primanti Brothers said there was a bit of confusion. The restaurant was given no notice of Vance’s visit. The manager became alarmed after the Secret Service and a large police presence suddenly arrived at the restaurant.”
Walz should deploy MN national guard to western NC or something
Polls are especially useless this time because it’s all turnout. There are basically zero actual swing voters relative to the number of people who may or may not decide to roll off the couch
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More weird polls today, Harris losing all the Midwest stuff she been doing well in but solid lead in NC and NV?
RIP fact checking in debates
https://x.com/jayrosen_nyu/status/1840213823099126003?t=bFaGg7Nn7cIIuYa1MpY-HA&s=19
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If this poll isn’t a GOP skewed poll, the simple conclusion is that Harris ran hot in these samples in NV and and NC, and that they’re toss ups and she’s losing the rest.
Anecdotally I’m hearing a lot of trans grooming panic from the normies. Looks like Trump will close hard with max bigotry and bullshit and so far it’s working. Guess that’s just America.
During the Eagles broadcast I saw the Kamala trans prisoner ad at least 3 times. Some border/illegal immigrant fear mingering ads a few times, and one Kamala ad. Trump and co are going hard in the paint with ad buys pushing as much culture war and racism buttons as they can down the stretch.
I’m very curious to see Walz perform fact checking duties. He seems up to the task.
If you spend your time fact-checking people like Vance and Trump you’ll have no time to say anything else. If the whole debate is Vance saying “they’re eating the pets!” and Walz saying “he’s lying!” it will be a big loss. I want Walz on offense.
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Don’t think it’s reasonable to only assume the ones Harris was winning were the outliers given other polling
It’s the simplest and most likely explanation because of the seven polls they conducted, it requires two outliers, not five or seven.
Why you choose those as the outliers? They just off the polling averages as all the ones Harris losing
Atlas polled 7 swing states and has Harris winning two states that should be two of the 3 or 4 worst for her. Either we fundamentally don’t understand how this election is shaping up and the other five polls (or all seven) are off significantly, or those two are off.
I don’t think there’s a world where she’s doing the worst in Michigan and the best in Nevada. You can go full hopium and say their NV and NC are right and everything else is coincidentally off, but that’s not the statistically likely way to explain it.
Meh. Stick with the averages which are still ok (slightly better than 50/50 in the swing states). Treating each poll like its own discrete data point will drive us mad (both the good and the bad).
It’s a fairly inexact science to begin with. Odds that any one poll is going to give a non representative result is higher than the average.
We are still at 2.5+ up in the popular vote and the swing states are a complete sweat. Strongly doubt we are going to see much movement outside of this in the next 6 weeks.
Man the amount of pearl clutching over 1 bad poll is something. Gonna be a long ride.
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