Im confused why you think those two polls are the most outliers compared to other polling in those states?
Nate averages has PA Harris +1.3 so this poll is off by 4.2 but Nate has NC has Trump +.02 so this is only 2.6 off this. You don’t determine outliers by comparing the states to each other among one pollster you compare what different pollsters say about the same states
We’ve had a number of bad polls lately, coinciding with the bigotry dial being cranked to the max.
Yeah I mean this whole politics polling concept is ridiculous compared to other disciplines. Like if these were medications we were comparing literally every single poll outside of Alabama and Cali be interpreted as “not statistically significant”
Just eyeballing the latest polls included in the 538 model for the important states tells me this is wrong and you’re massively overreacting. It’s gonna be alright and if it’s not there’s nothing you can do about it anyway. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. I admit I have anxiety over the outcome but that’s what I need to remind myself of, either way the die is cast and nothing can change it.
*tapping the sign*
I do think we are seeing a trend of polls that at least show her leads narrowing in the swing states, if not evaporating.
I mean, it is what it is. Trump is the natural leader of this country like the Taliban is the natural government of Afghanistan. Not a whole lot that can be done about it.
I should elaborate, because I think you’re right. What I mean is I want to see how he responds to the lies, which can be as simple as saying, “Not a single thing that guy just said is true. Look, here’s what we should be talking about…”
Just looking at PA and places that do polling averages
The hill +1
538 +1
NYT +1
270 to win +1.5 (not updated today)
For reference RCP is actually +0.1, so even a known bias is at least tied.
So PA is prolly in the 55-60% range to win PA. Get driven nuts by each individual poll does nothing.
I am worried about the immigration/trans fear mongering.
I wonder how the western NC flooding situation going to impact things. Obviously some the “big” cities like Asheville have some sizable D population but lot those rural counties are going to be super Trumpy. Might be some sort of migration out of places that essentially uninhabitable currently. My gut is this going to hurt Trump a lot more than Harris but haven’t looked at any actual data
I think I finally understand the genius of Trump’s bullshittery. We have had a lot of conversations about how if the election is about abortion, Kamala wins, and if it’s about the border, Trump wins. Kamala is more or less staying on message, but when she’s saying stuff about a woman’s right to choice and Donald Trump is out there saying “THEY ARE EATING YOUR PETS THEY ARE POISONING THE BLOOD OF THIS COUNTRY SHE IS LETTING 14,000 MURDERERS IN!!!” it’s pretty obvious what is going to get the most media coverage and thus be the key issue of the election.
It turns out the one cool trick to make the election about the issue you want is to say batshit crazy stuff about that issue.
Meanwhile, the high point for Harris/Walz was calling JD Vance a couch fucker.
Walz better take the My Cousin Vinny approach.
I’m a little nervous about debate because Rs played the refs so hard after last one
Don’t be nervous, the VP debate doesn’t matter at all.
I’m still hoping for a beat down like what Kamala gave to Trump or worse. Vibes train could use a boost.
Yah it doesn’t matter but Walz is gonna get rolled up and smoked. Will try his canned folksy lines that they are coaching him with while couch fucker just goes hard mashing the grievance button unchecked.
This is a good message for him. It took him longer than expected, but he’s settled onto his best message. Max racism, max bigotry, crank the anti-immigrant to 12, pro beating the shit out of shoplifters.
The thing is that Kamala could easily turn it up to 11 and say batshit crazy stuff about abortion…and it would all be true.
I don’t think she can match his batshit crazy rhetoric on immigration. Not to mention…
FACT CHECK: Donald Trump says he wants IVF to be legal and free for everyone!
Im finding it hard to envision how this could go where media says anything either than they both ignored the questions and said some things that weren’t accurate