Perhaps, but Buncombe County (Asheville) was Biden +21 to the tune of a 34K vote margin. So it’s probably going to actually be pretty close in terms of turnout impact.
Two high quality NC polls get the same result - Trump +2.
Could be wrong but I think Asheville itself going to get things addressed way quicker than the areas 15-90 minutes away where I bet a lot of polling places may not even exist right now. Will be curious how they even try to handle voting in that circumstance
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The other side of that coin is that if Kamala wins, Republicans try to avoid certification of NC because not everyone got to vote due to the hurricane. Perhaps they try to let the state legislature award the electoral votes, instead.
Yeah it’s a potentially weird situation not sure if much precedent. Looks there a few tiny towns where they were a single street basically and it’s straight up gone now
this is another one where the man on the street and the reality are so disconnected that I can’t figure out how the democrats let it get to this point.
trump literally unleashed iran, they were completely sedate and well-behaved under the obama nuclear deal and they only started acting up once the carrots and sticks were removed
just like china, trump has this “tough on china” aura and he’s never done shit to contain xi, xi literally rolled tanks into hong kong and trump didn’t even bother to try to get some trade concessions out of the guy, just gave him the grinning thumbs up and a big green light
This is where I think the race stands right now.
Using 538’s polls… Trump has won the last four polls in Pennsylvania, 5 of 7 in Michigan, and has tightened the gap in Wisconsin. He’s won 14 of the last 18 Arizona polls, while Nevada still leans Harris but it’s tight. Harris has won 0 of the last 7 polls in Georgia (3 Trump, 4 dead heat). Trump has the last six polls in North Carolina.
As the race currently stands, we’re drawing to a polling miss. We’re drawing to vibes over scientific polling. We’re drawing to unskewing. I could make an argument why that’s not as delusional as it was for Romney in 2012 or Biden in 2020, but I could also point to Trump outperforming polling in both his presidential elections.
This has 2016 vibes, with worse polling. We have to hope that the pollsters are overcorrecting for the shy Trump voter factor.
Trump and his GOP understand how the news media ecosystem works, and exploit it to the max. Most of the electorate does not live in objective reality, so Democrats doing what makes sense in objective reality is losing on many issues.
Quinnipiac (historicallyd has a pro Dem bias) poll of NC and Georgia:
NC
Trump 49
Harris 47
Others 2
GA
Trump 50
Harris 44
Others 3
Harris losing on the economy by 9 and 6 GA/NC, on immigration by 10 and 8, on preserving Democracy she loses by 2 and 1, on foreign conflicts she’s losing by 6 and 4, on handling a crisis she’s losing by 4 and 8, and on abortion she’s winning by 7 and 6.
I mean, yuck. I’ve been relying on retweets of polls posted here so I don’t think I realized the shit polls were a recent trend as opposed to just the usual mix of outliers.
FWIW I think we’re drawing reasonably live to the above wrt polling, plus the frequently brought up aspect of fresh registrations not accounted for, etc. Plus there’s five weeks left and things might shift multiple more times and this week’s polls will feel like ancient history. Then again all the shifts might continue to go in Trump’s direction and WAAF. I dunno.
I agree we are “reasonably live” on the above, but that’s far from being a favorite. More stuff can definitely happen in the next five weeks, but the “new” stuff currently on the horizon (Iran/Israel, port strike, hurricane relief) all favor Trump significantly. Trump has been scandal proof his entire political career, so it isn’t going to swing on a scandal.
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In the absence of good vibes, I’m just trying to think of it this way. Before Biden dropped out, I think we were generously at 20% to win, and now I think no matter how bad things get, I feel like Kamala’s floor is maybe 40%. To go with the usual stupid poker analogy, we just picked up a flush draw and a gutshot on the turn to go with our one overcard. At least it makes the sweat way more interesting.
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I’d say Biden was <5%, Kamala is probably around 30-35% right now. We desperately need Walz to hit a home run tonight, which is basically impossible in a VP debate. We need a news cycle reset desperately.
At the end of the day, if we lose I blame Biden and his team for attempting to run for a second term. A full primary likely gives us a ticket with Shapiro or Whitmer at the top, which would have been way better.
I’m not sure of much, but I am sure that nothing that happens at tonight’s debate matters one little bit.
Interesting. I think I’m way more bullish on polls being irrevocably fucked/useless for various reasons, which probably accounts for my estimates compared to yours.
Yeah, key words in my post were desperately and basically impossible.
If I were advising Kamala, I’d tell her to wait a few days and then give a speech about how Donald Trump is a rapist forcing rape victims to have their rapist babies, and JD Vance is a weirdo who as far as we know is not a rapist but also wants to continue to force rape victims to have their rapists’ babies. Maybe calling him a rapist is enough to turn the news cycle.
I could get behind that point of view, but I think the relative trends in polling still matters, and I think it correlates to his cranking up the racism, so that gives me a lot of 
energy. There’s a chance the polling was already off by several points because it can’t capture surging liberal registration, and the shift in his favor still leaves it as Kamala + enough, but that’s a pretty hopeful way of looking at it I think.
Yeah I’m pretty bearish on polls as useful predictors in this situation. The whole game is turnout and every indication I’ve seen IRL or in non polling data indicates we’re in very good shape. I just drove around williamson county texas and saw exactly two Trump signs despite driving ~25 miles worth of errands with several long detours through suburbia.
I’m pretty happy with Democrats going into election day thinking it’s close as that’s good for turnout. It’s also good for GOP turnout, but that assumption requires the GOP base being tuned into reality in any way at all.
Also this port thing is being hugely overblown in the media right now. Anything under a month and none of you will notice it happened. Freight rates will go up slightly and that will impact your price at the register about as much as freight rates dropping like a brick the last almost 3 years did, which is to say not at all.
Ikea having a bad quarter is not going to tank Kamala’s approval ratings. In other news we’re showing vastly more ads to voters in swing states than Trump is… and Trumps ads are trashy trash that do nothing for winning the voters he needs to win… and are pretty scary/motivating for people who were never going to vote for him.
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I remain convinced it takes awhile for state polls to reliably tell the real story compared to the sample sizes in national polling and Harris continuing to widen national gap after debate. Personally I think she going to win PA/NV/WI/MI and lose AZ/NC/GA
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