To be clear, Ralston is not saying that Dems are cannibalizing their Election Day vote and republicans aren’t. The right wing guy he’s quote tweeting is. And he’s basing it off of something that doesn’t say what he claims it does.
The right wing guy is making a dubious claim that republicans are doing a better job of getting low propensity voters to vote early because the percent of their early vote numbers who haven’t voted in the past 4 elections is higher than the dem percent. While completely ignoring the fact that the raw number of dem voters who haven’t voted in the past four elections is higher than the republican total because Dems have more early votes so far.
Also, this data says nothing about whether the people who have voted in the past have voted early or Election Day in the past. It’s just more right wing misinformation and you all need to stop falling for it.
At this point I am just assuming CW is doing a bit where he’s only posting the most optimistic takes from right wing nutters and treating them as gospel.
I do think there is a mix of paranoia and coping to avoid getting their hopes up for some on the left. I’m only trying to point out disinfo/misinfo so we know the types of things to look out for after Election Day when republicans attempt to claim it was stolen again.
No bit here. Trying to parse information and polls, and not just from left wing sources. Attempting to accurately analyze the election in hopes of making a profitable wager.
I thought so too until I talked to one of them and got them to ditch Trump with a few simple facts. Main one was that he’s a convicted rapist, which I’m sorry to say has not broken through the noise. Low info voters think he’s just a womanizer.
Local news in Philly did a segment about Trump surrogates reaching out to black voters who are sick of Democrats taking their votes for granted, and think Trump will actually do something for them if he wins.
Harris is cooked in Nevada imo and someone mentioned it earlier but this is not our first go-round with Trump. In both previous fun adventures, polling generally undershot his true support fairly significantly. But hey, maybe this time will be different!
Also, no shit looking at polling is bad for your mental health. Following politics to any significant degree is a total life leak in terms of opting into mental illness. But here we are so let’s make the best of it!
Ibread one take that Trumpers in blue areas put up signs to piss off liberals, and don’t bother in red areas because they won’t get to piss off liberals. I’m taking that as fact so I can be a little less pessimistic every time I see a trump sign, otherwise I’d be looking like harold.jpg all day every day.
And yes, PA/NJ are getting way more trump ads than Kamala on tv. Really disappointing given the difference in campaign funds on hand, but I guess with daddy musk bankrolling trump now that advantage is gone.
Republicans with a registration net change advantage of better than 2 to 1 in the most important state two weeks out, while outspending Trump in that state and while having a well organized ground game up against a shit show… Not a great indicator.
The polling indicates that PA is essentially a tie (within 0.5 either way). What do those “net change in voter registration” figures indicate in relation to that? What would we expect them to be in order for them to be a neutral indicator (consistent with the polling average)? What did these numbers look like in 2020?
Also possible Elmo and company just got their shit together last week and Ds been registering folks for 2 years? (I have no idea the context these numbers)
Not sure about 2020, but I don’t recall the GOP closing hard like this.
I checked and Dems had built up a big advantage but the GOP has been gaining for at least 6 weeks. Given that polling was close despite the advantage built up, it’s not a good sign.
