Good thing Trump has never outperformed polling before.
I was feeling good about this election, but I’m turning into WAAF very quickly.
It seems like you are making a basic assumption that in a 50/50 race that the “net voter registrations” in the last week should also be about 50/50 in order to serve as a neutral indicator. I’d be willing to adjust my priors about 0% without a lot more context.
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Is eloons million dollar lottery thing actually working to get people registered? If so… 
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1848373823961178358?t=sgNmH-UZ06sea3FLIpBqVQ&s=19
Told my Dad, including that it’s a non-profit bipartisan group run by John McCain’s social security advisor (he loved McCain)… He said Kamala would do the same stuff except for deporting people (which we all know he wants regardless), and he’s not worried about it.
He currently survives primarily from Social Security lol…
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My concern is twofold:
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This is going to be a super close election and people who just registered are very likely to vote - and they just netted out 13K votes. That could be the margin.
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This indicates momentum for their campaign, and people responding positively to the racism and insanity.
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Elon is also giving out free money. It doesn’t say a lot for you as a citizen if you’re getting registered in late October 2024 lol. Wanting to definitely get Elon’s money might also be motivating people to register as Republicans.
But yeah at best it’s a neutral indicator and I’d prefer we were generating huge positive results on voter registration at this point. I would be much more interested in the sum total aggregate voter registration data for PA over the last 2 years as an indicator of where we’ll end up vs 2020 and 2022.
I’m very much still jonesing for some of these early voting results with gender in them. I think Kamala is going to win women by a lot with picking up 20%+ of all Republican women being an actual card in the deck that could easily arrive on the river.
No, but their vote counts just as much as someone who has been registered for decades.
Maybe Kamala should be giving out $2M a day.
No see that would be a crime and to avoid any appearance of favoritism the DOJ would arrive immediately to do something about it lol. In other news fuck Merrick Garland. If Trump wins he’s going to look worse than Jim Comey.
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He already does by a substantial amount.
Aww come on guys gotta at least get a smile from a high quality pollster having Harris running the table on WI/MI/PA and being up by 4 in Georgia this AM if we going to stress all the bad news (I don’t disagree there is bad news but there good too)
This is definitely true. At the same time I am way less interested in the registration numbers for any short recent time period vs the longer term trend. Diminishing returns is one of the very few things I have enough belief in that I assume it’s present until it’s proven otherwise, and I actually can’t think of a case where that has been proven otherwise.
What that means is that if the Democrats have been working their asses off to get voters registered for two years straight in PA it’s going to be pretty hard for them to find additional people to register 2-3 weeks from the election.
I’m not saying that’s what’s happening, but I am saying this data isn’t incompatible with the Democratic turnout being high. If we’ve been wrecking the GOP on registration for 2 years and suddenly we get beat the week Elon creates a lottery for registering to vote and signing a pledge… I’m not super stressed about this particular datapoint.
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The 538 model (you know, the one where the earlier version had Biden lol beating Trump) now has Trump ahead. Honestly at this point given the polling error the last two times Trump was on the ballot, a Trump/Republican landslide is back in play:
hell yes
this is way better than 2016 when everyone was like “hildawg got this on LOCKDOWN bruh, 99% book it”
I was not in the “Hill has it locked,” group. I was terrified in 2016 and confident in 2020.
I guess it’s wrong to assume that the people motivated to register by Elon at this late date are probably in it for the money, not necessarily to actually show up and vote?
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Early+mail voting split in GA so far is Women +11. Harris a lock?
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This might be what you’re looking for. I haven’t dug around on there too much, but I trust the person who sent it to me. He’s politically active and a stats/election nerd who said he’s been ignoring polls and using this to track elections since 2022.
Cool so women are currently 56.2% of the returned ballots in PA but we’re all freaking out about PA? IDK seems dumb.
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