wwhs?
Right, now I remember. Obviously my sample size is small having only lived in Cali a few months, but the people I’ve heard consider leaving are citing high taxes (all ages) and crazy left wing politics (50+ white men).
I’ve heard a lot of young people complain about housing costs, but they were all staying.
Now Wasserman is high on Trump, think I’m going to have to do a complete and total media blackout from this point forward.
You could still bet Trump at like +500 for weeks after election day.
Is this, like, at a poker table? 
You lean on this kind of thing too much. Did this kind of thing for the state of the economy too.
I think somehow I’m the target audience that Nate wants to rustle. I swear every day there are good Harris state polls (yesterday wapo) he take about bad Harris national poll (atlas) and today we have good national Harris polls and he talks about bad Harris state polls. He must know rustling me drives him clicks
The Harris campaign seems insanely confident and the Trump campaign is in full meltdown freak out mode. The press is full bore for profit and captured by plutocrats to boot, which would honestly be a lot more concerning if anyone was still watching. The median age of an MSNBC watcher is 70, Fox News is 69 and CNN is 67. The NYT has 8.83M subscribers a meaningful fraction of whom are subscribed for the crossword puzzle and recipes.
The problem with right now is that there actually isn’t any good data. For proof feel free to look at the cross tabs of any of these polls either way good or bad. Does that suck? Yes.
Right now we’re hearing that early voting isn’t going our way in some states (right now it’s FL and NV). We’re also seeing it go our way in some states (TX, MI, PA).
Like it or not we’re all going to have to wait and see. Does that suck? Yes. Are we having a good time? No. The more I listen to you guys talk the more sure I am none of us has any idea what we’re talking about and should be looking for clues from people who do. The Harris campaign seems to feel pretty confident and seems to want us scared. The fear is one thing that’s very different from 2016 if finding difference helps you sleep at night.
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Will say I’m doing my part of not being complacent. 2016 I went out for a fancy dinner on election night, this time probably will eat some cold white rice and a chicken tender
Skip the chicken tender so you can properly start training for your trip to the gulag if Trump wins.
If polls are not reliable and no one knows WTF is going on, why do you think the Harris campaign is confident and Trump’s campaign is melting down? Do they somehow have better data than anyone else?
For the record, I’m on team we got this, and also blissfully ignoring the polls.
lol they always are R sponsored right? So wonder if they intentionally making them up with R knowledge or just grifting them secretly
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A week ago I thought she was 60/40, now I think 2-1 dog feels about right. I agree Polymarket is not predictive with the one guy buying millions, but I think there’s been more bad news than good. We were getting Joe +8 polls in swing states in 2020 and eeked it out. We need polling to be fixed and/or to be underestimating turnout. It’s possible, but it’s not good to be banking on that.
Other markets aren’t far behind.
Neighbors, wife’s coworkers, and poker table.
I think nobody has better data than the campaigns. They have the GOTV databases and all the data being fed back by the volunteers. They aren’t guessing about turnout in anything approaching the same way. For them it’s a street by street and door by door battle to get their voters out. They know how many of those they have, where they are, and if they have voted yet. They are gathering more information than every pollster will gather this entire cycle in the aggregate probably 2-3 times a day. This is because this is a working real world enterprise database rather than a piece of content creation to be sold to a media organization.
It was already like that during the Obama campaign so it’s even more insane now. No they aren’t going to tell us what they know because us being afraid is baked into their turnout projections. If there’s one thing Hillary showed us definitively it’s what a HUGE FUCKING MISTAKE IT IS TO TELL LIBERALS THAT YOU’VE GOT THIS AND IT’S GOING TO BE FINE. SOME OF THEM WILL DECIDE THAT THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO PROTEST VOTE FOR JILL STEIN AND SOME OF THEM WON’T COME IN AT ALL.
I’m still pissed at Hillary for acting like losing to Trump was some impossible outcome that even she didn’t need to be worried about. She acted like she was insulted at the idea that people were even seriously considering that she might lose.
So in that context I think the Harris campaign is projecting as much confidence as they safely can. They aren’t going out of their way to make us feel good though because it’s their job to win this race not make us feel good.
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There aren’t very many markets and right wing billionaires are currently spending like a hundred million dollars a week on trying to make Trump president in 2024. If they were going to rig one market they would rig them all.
Also my guess for who is rigging this market is straight up Elon. It’s his type of move down to the crypto.
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My first question here is, did they just take their polls from the jump to save money, or did they get bad results for Trump and then fake them?