Just curious, I always enjoy the contributions but do you manage to find all the optimistic stuff and sort out on own or have a certain D optimism Twitter source or something? Because if so I would check them often lol
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I have found that text banking and the GOTV ambassadorship really helps the #Vibes.
Five different friends/friends of family are also either canvassing, text banking, or writing post cards. And that’s just people I’ve reached out to in the past hour. People seem pretty motivated not only to vote but to encourage others to as well.
I’ve been an anxious and nervous wreck all week, but actually doing the work of helping drive action eases some of those worries.
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I just try to share any good vibes news I come across throughout the day. Far more fun than doom posting imo. If I’m wrong, we’ll all have plenty of time to be doom and gloom later.
I also think there is a value in encouraging dems to appear outwardly optimistic. People want to be part of the winning team. I believe this is also part of the strategy behind the republicans pushing their fake polls and other disinformation.
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https://x.com/blankslate2017/status/1849469028084920628?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
Also could be registered republicans voting for Harris.
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https://x.com/derrickhoneyman/status/1849485308422721701?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
Another WI Republican jumping ship
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I think popular vote would be a better bet. I didn’t actually see state by state on Poly, do they have it?
Could be for a Dubya endorsement. There’s also a world where she’s down a point or two in Texas, but still loses NC, GA, NV, AZ, and the Blue Wall. A combination of Texas women feeling more threatened and Texas conservatives being different from Pennsyltucky conservatives and more likely to vote for her.
Yeah, or that. Texas doesn’t have to be in play for that to make sense. Damn. I was hoping no Beyonce and no Dubya.
Two things here. First, Gallup has the generic partisan breakdown nationally at R+3 and they’ve historically underrepresented R’s by 1-3 points in that poll. So an R+4 generic split seems reasonable.
Second, early voting and Jon Ralston’s analysis of it are not right wing disinfo.
Like, the WSJ is not Trafalgar or Rasmussen. We sound like Trumpers four years ago tossing the polls we don’t like.
Now this is actually good news. If all the right wing endorsements are working and the actual Never Trump Republicans who never changed their registration are showing up for Kamala, we cruise to victory. Not impossible.
I’m not sure if these endorsements matter, but it is good to see people who backed Trump through 2020 not only turn against him with their vote now but basically self-immolate their political careers to tell others. Hopefully this is representative of their voters too.
I don’t think the endorsements move much but there’s correlation. Like it’s not just big name Republican politicians (or locally big) jumping ship. Average Joe Republican voter is coming to the same conclusions. I know several in my friend group. I literally just read a rando’s comment on a non-political subreddit saying they had lots of Republican family members voting for Harris. All this data about early returns by party affiliation is going to be absolutely fucked. Someone needs to run a high quality poll of registered Republicans to find out how many are sticking with their party because I think the result would be pretty eye opening.
Edit:
My pony is representative of a slow moving object
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I don’t know anything about WI politics but that would seem like a big deal in a lot of states
Yeah I was wondering about this. Like do you have to be a general who actually worked for Trump to jump ship or are most previously R military officers coming to same conclusions on their own and he is actually the canary in coal mine (I think maybe officers already skew D but I mean of the R ones)
I’m seeing this a lot, but how does that explain the polling? Shouldn’t Kamala pulling 5-10% of Rs and >50% of Is be a recipe for a massacre and not this 49-48 stuff we’ve been seeing?
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Yeah I feel same way. Guess the big question is just how pollsters going to determine who is going to actually vote and if they get it more or less right than in past.
ETA - I do wonder if some women won’t admit to Harris when polled for safety concerns but couldn’t see that being higher than like a 0.5% or something
Do you believe her?
I never understood why they are so hooked up on that. That’s the biggest nothingburger ever. At worst it’s a minor waste of resources if nobody in the boys locker room needs them.
Of course, what they really are objecting to is the presence of trans-boys but it’s not like they wouldn’t be there if only we banned tampons. Tampons aren’t some magic key that trans-boys need to pass through the force field around the locker room.
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yeah they are 100% juicing to set up the steal after
they’re not, it’s just the thing du jour to say instead of “we want the fascist.” None of them cared about DEI or CRT or bathrooms or whatever either, none of them ever even knew what any of that is
I’m a tad skeptical, but for all my Mom’s flaws when it comes to her belief system, she does have a kind heart. And she was in tears a few times during the call when I stressed there is a legitimate (regardless of how small) chance that I could be rounded up because of my name being on donation rolls, working for the campaign and using public-facing social media to rally others to donate, etc.
We’ll see. Maybe I should have suggested meeting for lunch and having her fill out her ballot, but I did the best I could. Fully expecting my father to call me a liberal pussy who’s full of shit, but at least I am mentally prepared for the worst outcome.
Endorsements. How do they work?
In 2020 Muhlenberg had PA-07 going 51-44 for Biden. He won it 51.8 to 47.0 and narrowly won the state.
Statewide, Muhlenberg had Biden winning 49-44, he won by 1.17%. They currently have it 48-48.
They’re not a bad pollster, but these poll results are mediocre at best. I’d consider them slightly bad news.