Then why don’t we see that in the polls?
Edit: eyeboogers pony is leading in the polls
Trump winning this election basically requires him to find more voters than he did in 2020… even though his demographic is making up the majority of the people who die and the demographics that hate him have aged 4 years and thus will see their turnout go up not down, and all indications from the 2022 + every other election or referendum suggests women are not at all cool with losing the right to be the final decider on what happens to their own bodies.
I barely believe Trump is doing well with young men. His party is against violent video games, weed, porn, the contraceptives that make casual hookups feasible, and the abortion that backstops you from getting slammed with child support if the contraceptives fail. I can tell you that 18-25 year old me wouldn’t have been OK with a single one of those things if the other candidate was different on literally any one of them, and that’s on pure unmitigated selfishness.
Right now, to me, the pollsters seem like they’re telling me to trust them and not logic / my eyes. My eyes tell me this is a high turnout election because every time I drive by the library there’s a line wrapped around the building. Nothing about Trumps platform is appealing in any way whatsoever to anyone who wasn’t already fully brainwormed in 2020. What he’s done to cause people to aggressively vote against him far outweighs anything he’s done to win over new supporters.
I just do not buy the polls here because I don’t trust the incentives or the competence of the people taking them. But I’m also a huge focus group hater and think a lot of truly terrible choices have been made as a direct result of them. I think they were smart when they first started getting used in the 80’s but like everything they have significant cons and diminishing returns which we passed going full speed sometime in the early 2000s at the latest… and got even stupider the second data that didn’t require asking people questions but rather just told you their actions became available.
I want to know about social media searches. I want to know which types of content are getting the most engagement in which states with #'s of unique users. I want that data compared to previous cycles. I want to know how many flesh and blood humans are in which groups on which websites. I want to know what volunteers are being told when they doorknock in the aggregate broken down by state and zip code if possible. That’s the kind of data I respect. There is absolutely no fucking reason we need some expert to lick his finger and hold it in the air to guess what turnout will randomly look like in the next cycle. That guy is obsolete af unless he’s gotten the last 8-10 right to within half a point.
A lot of the pollers are screening to reported 2020 vote to build their sample, so I’m not sure what happens when they dial a registered Republican who left president blank in 2020 or wrote in the Ghost of John McCain. Assuming they either don’t include these results or limit them to like 1% of the poll result, they could be missing these voters. But that assumption is based on ~nothing.
This seems to me to be the best chance we’ve got right now. I wonder if Kamala’s internals are seeing this, and that’s why they’re going so hard in the paint on conservative endorsements. Like, if you’re losing ground with Black men for being a woman, and you’re losing ground with young men for not being a fascist, but you’re seeing some lifelong Republicans who respect Democracy break your way… Her campaign makes a lot of sense. You can’t become a man in the next two weeks and you won’t become a fascist, so…
And he found Black men and young men.
They don’t know he’s against weed, porn, and contraceptives… And they don’t care about abortion cause they don’t think it’ll happen to them. 18-25 year old men aren’t exactly known for their ability to recognize the long-term consequences of their drunken actions.
Apparently MORE Republicans are voting early than Democrats in these states, FWIW. Maybe Independents are breaking hard for Harris, or Republican women are?
Hopefully this sways five Trump-leaning Teamsters in suburban Pittsburgh to change their minds
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I feel the same as you but part of my wonders if there were a bunch of Trump people seeing anecdotal movements during Hillary election and everyone was dunking on them with polls. I don’t really buy that the polls can only be wrong in one direction.
Correct, we have the 2022 elections to show that.
Well, she’s still going to enthusiastically vote for Trump, but at least it must feel good to know your mom loves you enough to at least pretend like she cares whether you end up on a train to Gitmo!
I’m glad this is finally showing up because it’s what I’ve expected to see. Plenty of people are silently done with Trump!
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Is that list of Marist early vote numbers accurate? When I did a quick google search couldn’t find original source but may be lol Google more than anything
What happens if were to get a Bush v Gore scenario this year? Obviously I know what SCOTUS does. Surely Joe and Kamala don’t lay over like Gore. It seems like our government would completely collapse.
Violence and Trump in the White House.
Ehhh, he crossed journalists picket line. They’re the enemy of the people, so it doesn’t matter at all.
jlawok dot jiff
Hats off for this one. It’s funny on level one, and then it’s also like scary on level 2 where Stephen Miller is like, “I didn’t mean to kill all the radical leftists on the train, it was just a logistical error. Who knew a train couldn’t make it from the US to Gitmo?”
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Yeah everyone needs to calm the fuck down on early vote stuff we probably still got pallets of ballots in post offices and stuff. Obviously ralston wants things to be compelling as possible but sometimes we just need to wait for the data to arrive a little more
So apparently this is within their recent polls, not a separate poll and not an exit poll. I consider this good, as exit polling is notoriously unreliable. I’m looking at the NC one now.
24% say they’ve already voted in person, 6% say they’ve already voted by mail.
Cross referencing this with the ballot count, we’ve got approximately 2M ballots in so far, and they had about 5.4M votes in 2020. So we should see like 37% of the vote already in if the electorate is the same size… If it’s a bit bigger, then we’re on track.
So far, so good.
There’s nothing on the cross tabs that’s helpful in determining the accuracy of this, but Marist is a great pollster. One thing this has me wondering regarding the partisan split of polls vs. early vote is how a Republican who’s a true Never Trumper who just sat out the presidential race in 2016/20, but never changed their party registration, would respond to the party ID question in a poll. It wouldn’t surprise me if a decent chunk of these are responding as Independent in the poll, but never changed their registration, and are showing up as Republicans in the early vote.
This is very plausible hopium here.