Looked it up on the NYT 2020 map, that’s a Biden 78-20 area.
I mean, is there a reason to think there are more pallets sitting around now than in 2020 or 2016 or 2012? Cause we’re doing poorly by the comps.
Miami-Dade has flipped red in the early vote totals so far by partisan breakdown.
Very odd price pairing on IBKR imo.
Arizona:
Kamala 28c
Trump 72c
Nevada
Kamala 42c
Trump 58c
Tempted to mash Trump in Nevada and Kamala in Arizona, based on the service industry and no tax on tips. I think Trump should be around 70/30 in both, and there’s a chance Nevada is redder this time.
Trump winning white women by a larger margin than white men is… interesting
That part has to be an outlier. If not, we’re well and truly fucked.
I agree with you on the above. However, out of this cohort of young dudes that are mostly uninformed and dgaf about anything, what percentage actually vote? Serious question.
Totally agree their turnout should be low, and Kamala should be working to suppress it.
Not sure whether the “didn’t vote in 2020” is higher or lower than past election years, but hopefully the non-votes in 2020 showing up to vote now are breaking hard for Kamala. A whopping 40% of other party registrants didn’t vote in 2020. Those new voters account for 0.2% of the total early votes so far, which doesn’t sound like much but it could end up being the margin.
If Kamala is tied with white men then Texas is in play.
ETA: see its 18-40. Still a good data point for her.
This poll is suggesting a major realignment of black voters to vote for Trump instead of a black candidate. Trump also isn’t winning women. Don’t buy it for a second imo
I think Ralston is the real deal, he was very correct in 2020.
There has been a lot of discussion about poll numbers recently and to me it seems that one of the main points of contention is whether they accurately reflect the state of the race.
I would like to get a sense where the forum stands on the issue that’s why I am doing a poll about polls:
My best guess is that the polls
- are roughly accurate; Harris wins
- are roughly accurate; Trump wins
- overestimate Trump; Harris still wins
- overestimate Harris; Trump wins
- underestimate Trump; Harris wins
- underestimate Harris; Trump still wins
- Bastard!
0
voters
Sorry, had to reset the poll. Mixed up some options.
I’m not disputing that just more interested in what he says in a week than today. Like tomorrow he could say o 20k ballots were found in the basement and I wouldn’t hold it against him but seems we just gotta wait for the data to arrive
I could make the case for a very strange realignment.
For starters, abortion remains legal in the Blue Wall and Nevada, so women there may be less motivated. It’s restricted in NC, severely restricted in GA, and most severely restricted in TX (no exceptions). Beyond that, Nevada is unique because of the service industry and no tax on tips.
This would be something like… Texas conservatives are different from Blue Wall conservatives. They’re more Libertarian and less MAGA, and there is a higher concentration of old money conservatives who want low taxes but also want a functional system. More “God and country” voters who actually value democracy and less “They’re actually eating the dogs,” inbreds.
So Kamala gains just enough among old rich white guys and highly motivated women to put Texas in play, but Blue Wall women are less motivated and the old white guys there don’t shift her way.
I’m definitely not saying that is a lock or anything, but I think we’re in a high variance spot and a lot of weird stuff could be happening.
A lot of polls for like a year and a half have suggested a major realignment of black voters and young voters.
Ralston is the end boss of Nevada election analysis. He’s elite.
Poll options are still incomplete but I am just leaving it as is now. Making polls is hard.