Ok, catching up wasn’t that bad, but I was hoping something big had happened.
What happened to the n-word/groping/hitler tape that was supposed to be dropping today?
Well now they’re expecting something to come out tomorrow and something else next week!
Fake rumor started by a Trumper pos (Halperin).
They’re going to play the tape behind Beyonce performing at the DNC.
We are so fucked.
IIRC, it’s just been me and jman banging that Trump gonna win drum since the very beginning. Looks like we’re getting some company on the bandwagon.
I’m in a weird place.
Maybe it’s wishcasting, but I’m deliberately tuning out all of the breathlessly reported late breaking swing state cross tab polls, or early voting results, for my own mental health.
I think there’s a nonzero chance that there’s a systemic polling error that fails to capture the blue enthusiasm gap. We saw in 2020 AND in 2022 that there’s a silent, anti-MAGA coalition majority in this country. Republicans going all in on anti-trans rhetoric was proven to be a losing issue for them with voters in 2022.
I think a Kamala landslide is in play.
But I refuse to get my hopes up, until all the votes are counted.
She’s run a fine campaign, and if she loses… then America was irredeemable anyway, and the country deserves what it gets.
That’s where I’m at.
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On today’s episode of “Imagine Joe Biden said it!”
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What’s your position on Harris? Assume you’re buying lots of landslide futures?
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Counterpoint: Scary immigrants.
Although… kind of sounds like a shithole
https://x.com/statisticurban/status/1849338958599028974?s=46
Musk bought Twitter in 2022 lol… So he got tight with Putin right before he made an incredibly “dumb” purchase and then started running it into the ground, in service of authoritarians worldwide.
A bunch of us here absolutely nailed this like a month after he bought it.
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Counterpoint: awesome tacos.
Also awesome people. The friendliest people we’ve met since moving have been Mexican-Americans eager to welcome us to the area and give us food or food recs.
Haven’t really done my prop research yet, but I know the rent control one is super controversial with a slew of Dems/Republicans on each side of it making it very confusing which side the good side is. The harsher penalties one is not as bad as it sounds, I’m undecided but leaning towards yes. My understanding is it’s harsher penalties for people on their third offense or involved in like a gang operation to steal stuff. As for minimum wage, we have $16/hr right now which is T-2 I think behind Washington at $16.28. I think the prop takes it to $18 and chains it to inflation. I’ll probably be a yes on that, but I wouldn’t call us a shithole for staying T-2 instead of taking the lead in minimum wage.
The rent control one is, from what I’ve read, more complicated than it looks in that it could be used as a poison pill to avoid building new housing as mandated by other state laws:
A city could set price controls on rent in new housing to the point where it effectively dissuades housing development. In its recommendation to vote “no” on Prop 33, the Chronicle’s editorial board points to Huntington Beach, where a Republican council member has already announced his plans to use the proposition to evade California’s affordable housing mandates.
I voted no for that reason. On the other ones… 
Did a small dive into the early voting in Georgia so far…
The eight counties where Biden ran up the biggest raw vote margin are currently 41.24% of all counted votes vs 41.44% in the final count (all voting methods) in 2020. The eight counties where Trump ran up the biggest raw vote margin are currently 13.26% of the counted vote vs. 12.57% in the final count in 2020.
So we’re running at 99.5% proportionally and they’re running at 105.5% proportionally. This is oversimplified, but if you applied those numbers to the vote totals you’d get Trump by 136K. 2020 was Biden by 12K, 2016 was Trump by 211,141.
Of course, there’s no way of knowing how it’s breaking down by party or whether we’re getting more Republicans breaking ranks. And they don’t do a partisan breakdown, but we can take a look at race and gender - though we can only compare this to 2022, when Warnock beat out Walker but that was obviously a unique race. Kemp and Raffensperger were re-elected comfortably.
The white vote is up slightly vs '22, the black vote is down slightly, and Asian/Pacific Islanders are up slightly and Native American/Alaskan Native are up slightly. I don’t think these changes are enough to mean anything at all.
In 2022, women made up 54.95% of the electorate. This time around they’re at 55.7%. All we have from 2020 is an exit poll that had women at 56-44.
This makes me think that it’s closer than Trump by 136K, but there’s a lot of room between that and Kamala winning. Diving deeper on the ballots cast by county so far only makes Georgia look worse.
Kamala having about 30% equity there feels about right. We’re basically drawing to the Trumpiest counties having higher turnout because of Kamala voters showing up there.
Your hopium is that Forsyth County has the biggest proportional bump in turnout among the eight Trumpiest counties, and it’s Atlanta suburbs/exurbs. In fact, if you took the ring of red counties around Atlanta, the biggest proportional bumps in turnout right now are in the three least Trumpy in 2020 of that ring (still heavily Trumpy though).
Right now Forsyth is 52.8% female, Spalding is 57.2% female, and Fayette is 54.8% female. These numbers are all slightly up over the final totals for 2022. We don’t have that data for 2020.
So, you could inject some hopium that maybe the higher turnout in some of the Trumpy counties is the shy Kamala vote.
NYT has them tied at 48-48. Not great but I do think they had Trump at +2 at time everyone had Harris like +3 so we still in the game.
This musk Putin stuff is obvious and we known for awhile but still so fucked up
Not doing an early vote deep dive but in some of the more educated areas I wouldn’t be surprised if Dems are peeling off more registered republicans than normal. Soccer moms who won’t tell their husbands but aren’t down for abortion bans and coups.
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We should 100% expect Republicans to be doing relatively better in Georgia so far vs 2020 due to the changing ways that people are voting. Mail votes will be a fraction of 2020.
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Yeah. It seems dumb that we can do this but they don’t just count the ballots in advance