Bold Prediction Harris rides Taylor Swift endorsement to landslide victory. No map needed.
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All kidding aside we win 100% of the time if TS does half of what Katie Perry did in 2016. Just for starters she’s better at literally everything and has a much larger audience she has much more pull with. It’s mildly terrifying how many white women aged 20-50 TS could get to actually show up and vote.
Honestly though ‘They not like us’ should probably be the campaign music for this one. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/22/2024-election-biden-kamala-harris-campaign-updates/#link-NFF7XBLGZRCIHIPZK7ZKL6DROQ Beshear is already pounding that message lol.
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Is that even that bold?
Compared to where we were a week ago, yes
I’m lazy so only respond if you genuinely enjoy this stuff but what map would we predict as most likely if Kamala wins a close election?
We live in a different world than we did a week ago!
L. Washington’s answer is a small favorite in that scenario, but the answer could very well be:
Kamala does better than Biden with young voters and voters of color, and worse with old white people. That makes her stronger in the Sun Belt and weaker in the Blue Wall. Whether that’s enough to change the lanes of the path to the tipping point remains to be seen.
Here’s a even closer one:
In this scenario Kamala loses NV because of Trump’s promise of no tax on tips and Hispanics not being all in for her. GA is lost because of too much voter suppression. WI because of too many old white people.
She carries PA, MI, and AZ riding the popularity of Shapiro, Whitmer, and Kelly. One of them as VP.
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This one seems fairly plausible for the hopium crowd.
Nevada is a lost cause imo. I think we can still get WI, not counting on GA or NC. If PA goes the whole thing is lost, no matter what. With PA, there are outs, but I think 270 still counts as bold cuz we cooked.
I get that she may be able to run up the black vote a bit more, but man I just don’t see a scenario where she is winning Georgia and NC & losing PA. PA is still the most likely tipping point stat IMO.
Wonder if could win GA and lose AZ
Georgia: Trump is up by two points in the state (48% to 46%), with 7% undecided, in an Emerson poll of 800 registered voters (margin of error 3.4), after leading Biden by six points in the group’s previous poll.
Arizona: Harris is down by five points (49% to 44%) among the 800 registered voters surveyed (margin of error 3.4), with 7% of voters undecided, while Trump led Biden here by seven points earlier this month.
Yes, I think about a million people moved out of California 2021-2023. Net was more like -400K, but i think a lot of conservatives moved out and I assume people moving to California skew liberal. A lot of the conservative exiles went to Nevada and Arizona, so I think those states are probably redder now.
This exodus from California to its neighbors has been a decades-long thing though, like, my parents went to Oregon in like 2005 and “oh god Californians are moving here to fuck up our state” was already a thing back then. And Arizona turned blue in that time! Is there a particular change in the data that would lead us to think trends are reversing?
Like I wouldn’t assume net migration from the state is politically motivated at all, it’s probably more financially motivated. Maybe non-political exodus of a mostly liberal population is what turned AZ blue to begin with?
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Plausible theory. Would be very nice if you were right.
My anecdotal experience confirms this as well. My mom moved from the Bay Area to NM to semi-retire because CA was too expensive. She’s a die-hard Democrat.
I think there may be a lot of other Dem boomer retirees from CA moving to AZ/NM/CO that are making those states bluer than they used to be. NM certainly has seen a change since the 2010s.
That’s a good point. I don’t think there’s any real visibility into these trends, especially politically, so it makes me very nervous if the Sun Belt is Plan A.
There’s also been a trend of young college grads moving to AZ for jobs, I think, which probably offsets it somewhat.
Just anecdotally I played poker with a lot of people in NV this summer who moved there from CA and were complaining about liberals, taxes, and wokeism. Met a couple people in CA who want to move to AZ for lower taxes, but gun to my head I’d guess Dem voters in the presidential election with like 70% confidence.