Climate and Environment: Cat 5 Hurricane Milton, 165 mph winds

[VoteForSocialists]

Antarctic sea ice hit record lows again. Scientists wonder if it’s ‘the beginning of the end’

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/21/world/antarctic-sea-ice-record-low-climate-intl/index.html

[McTrollson]

Beginning of the end was a while ago imo.

[commonWealth]

Yes, it is. No, most people don’t care. Yes, humans are pretty fucked. No, most of them don’t care. Yes, it’s happening faster than projected. No, we’re not going to do anything to stop it. Yes, the sea level will probably rise several feet in my lifetime. No, society will not change course.

Society in its current form will last until it collapses, without changing course. Only way we avoid our demise is if scientists make brilliant advances that allow rich humans to keep consuming gluttonous amounts of energy without causing their own demise.

Humans and energy are like dogs and food you put in front of them. They’re eating it until they puke, then they might try to eat the vomit.

I follow this like I follow news on COVID and H5N1, I’m just trying to be informed enough to escape the worst of it for as long as possible. Anything more than that is hopeless - and that’s probably hopeless, too.

[TheDudeAbides]

It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

[Danspartan]

The planet is going to shake a lot of us off like a bad case of fleas.

[eyebooger]

@Danspartan

The planet is going to shake a lot of us off like a bad case of fleas.

Relax the planet is fine

[bbb7979]

@McTrollson

Beginning of the end was a while ago imo.

Basically the 2000 election IMO. Who knows how history would have been different if we had president Gore at the turn of the century?

[VoteForSocialists]

Elon Musk

[VoteForSocialists]

here’s an opinion on this from krugman. it’s a totally subjective high level wonk view, and obviously overlooks the frustrations and damages at the bottom that people and consumers are going to face. but still, it does seem that greening of power grid and phasing out much of ICE transportation will be possible. at some point i believe i called myself a technologist, and even if much of climate tech doesn’t exist yet, i kinda have to bet of basic science to eventually produce it.

The biggest factor making this kind of climate initiative possible, after so many years of inaction, is the spectacular technological progress in renewable energy that has taken place since 2009 or so. This means that we can greatly reduce emissions using carrots instead of sticks: giving people incentives to use low-emission technologies rather than trying to regulate or tax them into giving up high-emission activities. And the politics of carrots are obviously a lot easier than the politics of sticks.

Opinion | Wonking Out: Why Growth Can Be Green

[TheDudeAbides]

half the voters think anything green is “woke” now so it doesn’t matter

[VoteForSocialists]

and half of those voters will die before the coral reefs do. sad.

[goofy]

Levine today highlighted a story that I think does a good job of encapsulating some of the problems with market-based climate solutions:

Nice trees we have here, shame if anything were to happen to them

The economics of producing stuff are basically pretty simple. Each thing you produce, you sell to someone for money, and the more you produce and sell, the more money you make.

The economics of not producing stuff are considerably more metaphysical. There is, in the world, a business of not cutting down trees. Trees capture carbon, which is good for the climate, and through various mechanisms — environmental, social and governance investing; shareholder pressure for net-zero emissions; carbon-credit trading markets, etc. — people can get paid for not cutting down trees. But there are problems of measurement. There are right now, in the world, absolutely billions of trees that I have not cut down, but nobody is paying me for my restraint. Practically speaking, to get paid for not cutting down trees, you have to (1) have the right to cut down the trees and (2) have some propensity for cutting down the trees. Nobody is going around offering me cash for not cutting down the trees in my backyard, not only for reasons of scale but also because no one expects me to cut them down. But lumber companies can get paid for not cutting down trees, because they are in the business of cutting down trees, so paying them to stop makes a kind of sense.

Similarly, countries that have vast rainforests that are shrinking each day due to uncontrolled logging can probably get paid to stop that, while countries that have vast rainforests that are pretty well protected have a harder time getting paid. If you are a country that has done a good job of protecting your rainforests, you might feel a bit ill-used by that. You might call up an ESG Consultant But Evil and say, well, how do we get paid for not cutting down our trees? And the ESG Consultant But Evil will give you the obvious advice, which is: Make a big show of cutting down some trees, put them in a wood chipper, put the chips in envelopes and send them to various international bodies and ESG investors with ransom notes saying “if you ever want to see these forests again pay up.”

If you pay ransoms to kidnappers you will get more kidnapping. If you pay people for not doing things that they might otherwise do, they will look for ways to credibly threaten to do the things, so they can get paid not to.

That’s more or less the experience of Gabon, with “one of the world’s largest intact rainforests.” Bloomberg’s Antony Sguazzin and Natasha White report:

Unlike some of its neighbors, the country strictly limits logging, palm oil production and other activities that lead to forest destruction; it’s suffered less than 1% forest loss since 1990, compared with about 14% for continental Africa.

Now that oil production, the country’s primary source of revenue, is dwindling, leaders are reevaluating the money-making potential of the forests. Opening more land to timber companies is one option, but for now Gabon’s environmentally minded government is more interested in keeping the trees alive—if the international financial markets can make it worthwhile.

The best avenue for that, Gabon says, is the $2 billion-and-growing market for “carbon offsets.” That’s traditionally been limited to those who can document improvement on past environmental practices, not those who, like Gabon, never wrecked their forests in the first place. That’s because for a carbon offset to fulfill its function of compensating for its buyer’s emissions, it needs to have financed something that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. But in Gabon, forest protection has been happening anyway.

Still, Gabon insists it should be compensated for the air-purifying service its trees provide. Otherwise, it hints, its commitment to forest preservation may take a backseat to more traditional economic development. In its recent national action plan under the Paris Agreement, the global climate pact, the country says it plans to remain a “net-carbon absorber”—if it gets access to international finance through a carbon market.

“There is no financial instrument to support Gabon to continue to offer this critical ecosystem service,” Akim Daouda, the chief executive officer of Gabon’s $1.9 billion sovereign wealth fund, said in an interview during a recent trip to London. “Can we monetize the forest and keep it for the rest of the planet? Or do we need to find a way to respond to the needs of our population?”

Yes that is absolutely the way you make that threat.

[TheDudeAbides]

it’s been snowing in california last several days but today I saw something I couldn’t believe, it was snowing at the beach in LA. actual snow. and not a little drizzle, either. real day after tomorrow shit. this is the coldest winter I’ve seen here.

[VoteForSocialists]

Ocean treaty: Historic agreement reached after decade of talks

[boredsocial]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-04/oil-producers-hand-128-billion-to-investors-as-doubts-grow-about-future-of-fossil-fuels?srnd=premium

Despite the headline it’s actually good news. Basically the huge profits oil companies are going to show over the next few years are going to be because they’ve stopped investing in new projects.

[goofy]

This is a wild story:

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1634580471706206209

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1634580633547620357

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1634580762384113669

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1634581027417907202

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1634581199900254214

non-paywall link

The home, which belongs to retired couple Terry and Mary Sebastian, sits on a canal in Rotonda West, Fla., a coastal community that bore the brunt of Ian when the storm made landfall on Sept. 28. The entire place would need to be dehumidified, the roof completely replaced, the insulation torn out and the tattered pool enclosure rebuilt. It would be about $200,000 to repair the damage, the licensed adjuster calculated in his estimate for Heritage Property & Casualty Insurance Co.

But when Lee checked in on his report about 10 days later, his stomach dropped, he said. It had been drastically whittled down, with entire portions, such as the one detailing issues in the primary bedroom, removed. The amount of insulation that needed to be redone was cut by half, and his estimate now said that one-third of the roof should be fixed, instead of it being fully replaced. The homeowners were slated to receive a total of $27,000. The changes were made without Lee’s knowledge or consent, he said, but his name was still on the final report, according to documents seen by The Washington Post.

People need to go to jail for this:

In multiple emails obtained by The Post, managers at Tristar and another third-party adjusting firm referenced these agreements.

On Oct. 27, for example, a claims director at Tristar wrote to all adjusters that “we are seeing too many reports describing damage and mentioning ‘wind’ as the cause of loss. Per Heritage: WE DO NOT DETERMINE COVERAGE!” he wrote, reminding them, “Do NOT say what caused it!”

“Heritage does not want to see that word [wind] in photo descriptions or in the General loss reports,” he said. “Let’s make sure we are just describing the damages we see and leave the cause (wind) out of it!”

If DeSantis wants to Make America Florida, yikes:

Florida’s insurance market has been teetering toward collapse for years. After destructive storms in 2005, several big carriers including State Farm pulled back coverage in the state, and newer, more thinly financed, smaller companies swooped in and began to operate. Then came 2017, one of the costliest hurricane seasons ever. Hurricane Michael battered Florida the following year.

Adjusters said they started to see carriers greatly reduce damage estimates, fully deny roof replacements more often and force claims of a certain value into litigation. Payouts started to get delayed or not come at all, adjusters and attorneys said.

At the same time, rates kept rising, and fast. Florida homeowners paid an average of $4,231 for home insurance in 2022, nearly three times the price in any other state — and rates are expected to increase again this year. Ten property insurers that operated in Florida have gone insolvent since January 2021. About 125 property insurers remain in the state, but experts said many are either not taking on new business or are greatly limiting policies because of the volatile market.

[boredsocial]

I’ll ask my brothers take on this. He was an actuary that was involved in the decision his old employer made to exit Florida. My guess is he blames the FL state government for this, which is probably pretty fair.

[commonWealth]

I predicted a couple years ago that the Florida homeowners insurance market collapsing would be the first impact of climate change that woke a lot of people up to the reality that shit was hitting the fan. Silly me, I thought the insurance would just get crazy expensive or insurers would move out of state. I forgot that sham fly by night operators would come in and rip off homeowners.

This is my favorite part though:

So far they’ve received one $2,500 check for living expenses, despite having submitted hundreds of receipts for their hotels, food and other expenses, emails show, and another for $10,000, which went directly toward repairing their roof. Much of their furniture is ruined, the couple said, and they are in the process of applying for a loan to continue the repair work

Cause hey, why not rebuild there and roll the dice again, amirite?

@goofy

People need to go to jail for this:

Absolutely, but I’m not sure it’s in the immediate interests of the wealthy or powerful for this to be a big thing. Like, if homes in Florida are uninsurable due to climate change, that’s a big fucking problem for Florida and for people like Ron DeSantis, who’s pretty fucking powerful.

This company probably can’t pay out, it would probably go under. So then what happens to the homeowners? A federal bailout? And for what? To rebuild homes there and do this all over again? I mean I’m sure Dems would be dumb enough to do it, but I say give these people what most of them voted for: some guidelines on bootstrapping and decision making. DeSantis won by 20 points statewide, and he won Lee County where Ian hit by 40 points.

A lot of powerful people are best served by this being mostly swept under the rug and letting it rip again until enough residents get wise to the scam to GTFO.

And quite frankly I feel no sympathy for these people. I am 36 and have not been able to buy a home yet, and I’m currently struggling financially quite a bit as the single earner putting my fiancee through school. These people owned homes, and they made shitty decisions on where they lived in this age of climate disasters, and most of them voted for the climate denial party and the fuck immigrants party and the fuck libs’ feelings party.

Fuck 'em.

[boredsocial]

I was right. Florida basically made it impossible for legit insurance companies to write policies in the state.

So that left only the guys who never intended to pay claims.

[commonWealth]

So as investors what we’re looking for is a mortgage lender who has too much exposure to the Florida coastline, where a bunch of homes went from literally underwater to underwater on their mortgages absent insurance payouts that aren’t coming. Problem is, trying to figure out who has that exposure is fucking impossible with all of the swaps.

How big of a financial disaster is lurking just under the surface here?