Definitely anything either way in early March is super silly come on. Especially vs a guy like Biden who seems to just love to rope a dope. He literally wrong footed this entire forum savagely in 2020 when we were all universally rooting for literally everyone else but Bloomberg.
Also giving Trump way way way too much credit for any of it. More likely than not he’s going to fuck this up spectacularly like he’s fucked up almost everything in his entire life.
Well, we’ll never know the counterfactual about how a Dem running on a stronger policy platform (and less “I was Obama’s VP”) would have done in that same election. It was still very close!
Why people think the economy is bad:
https://x.com/whstancil/status/1764008608235188571?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
BS attacked all data collection in economics. He did not propose anything better. Shockingly, I think there’s some major flaws with going with individuals feelings on the economy!
Trump is facing a lot more resistance than he was in 2016, his opponent is a much better political candidate (don’t start with me on this HRC is in the conversation for worst major party presidential candidate of all time), and he banned abortion last time he won.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I am saying that it’s March and we have a lot of race left to run. This is literally like saying an NBA game is over because the score is 6-5 after the first couple of minutes. I get where you’re coming from, it’s anxiety, and I don’t blame you for that I’m anxious too lol.
Us: averages can be misleading, here’s why
You: SEE??? THE AVERAGES ARE BETTER THAN EVER YOU GUYS ARE WRONG!
Me: BS posted a long analysis by a Nobel Prize winning economist
You:
“Individuals feelings”??? That’s what we’re calling a Nobel Prize winner’s analysis? The dude won a Nobel, you could at least put some respect on that.
I get it dude. You’re rich, life is great, and maintaining the status quo is good for you. You really wish the annoying peasants would shut the fuck up and rally behind Biden instead of bitching about their rent increases and food prices. Just tell me to eat cake and be done with it, I’d respect you more for that than arguing in bad faith treating me like I’m a moron who doesn’t know how good he has it.
tldr; You’re not going to convince me things are great when I’m literally living the reality that you’re ignoring.
Can’t we just get a bunch of the richest democrats to give the guy like 10 billion to go away?
No, but they’ll pass the hat if the middle class promises to pay it - they’ll only skim 20-30% off the top for hat maintenance costs, too.
No, that’s not what I’ve said, and it’s dishonest to say otherwise. Again, lowest earners have made the most gains in this economy
And seriously stop making this about me repeatedly. I’m actually having a pretty shit time with a few things in my life, and your continual need to brush away my facts by arguing about me is horseshit
Which was necessary to keep the lower class alive, and the middle class that doesn’t own homes is getting smoked, and you refuse to acknowledge it.
Again, the official inflation numbers are not indicative of reality for renters and people who are just scraping by - housing and food are a huge chunk of their budget.
This keeps starting because you refuse to acknowledge the reality that I keep telling you I am personally living: that a lot of people who used to be doing well are struggling, because inflation for the lower 50% has been a lot worse than the official numbers.
I’m working more than ever, making as many BB/hr as ever, consuming less than ever, and my finances are tighter than ever.
I also know several people in a similar boat.
You asked me to lay off because you were having a tough time in life, and I am pretty sure I told you I was sorry to hear that and I’d leave you alone on this, but that I’d appreciate you also not telling me things were great and I don’t know what I’m talking about when I am personally living it.
You went right back to it, and you’re now mad I’m responding aggressively. But maybe I am misremembering and I didn’t say this before and just dropped it at the time… Just in case, I’m sorry to hear that you’re having a tough time, but please treat others - in this case me - with the same respect you want to be treated with.
How you personally live has nothing to do with this argument and gives you no special insight into this discussion.
Hell dude I’ve literally gone through what you’re going through now wrt poker. I was a pro in 2006-2012.
None of that is relevant here.
BTW, I’m on the good side of both of these questions, and I still wouldn’t say I’m getting ahead.
I think “treading water” would be a bad analogy, because my wife and I are doing fine economically. But if you asked me whether we were better off now or 5 years ago, it’s a close call. Our wages have absolutely not kept pace with inflation. The only thing that offsets it is the fact that we refinanced our home in early 2021.
But I am very sympathetic to the people that I know that are getting absolutely fucked by this economy that is fundamentally broken in many ways. I know some of the standard metrics look great, but so many young people saying “hey, this economy sucks” can’t simply be the result of right-wing propaganda.
So just so we’re clear, twice I’ve told you I’m sorry you’re having a tough time, and I’ll back off but I’d appreciate the same because I’m having a tough time too - as I’ve repeatedly told you, based on my personal experience financially right now - and I’m not currently on a downswing, I’m making as many BB/hr as ever. Inflation has wrecked me.
And twice now you refuse to back off, express zero sympathy, and respond by telling me my personal experience is completely irrelevant and provides me no insight, while demanding I show you sympathy and respect because you’re having a tough time? My tough time doesn’t matter but you’re special???
Your ability to be condescending and devoid of empathy while demanding respect and sympathy in return from those you’re disrespecting is impressive.
cw I’m genuinely sorry you are having hard time.
Imo, everybody is right.
White collar workers are getting laid off left and right and raises for people that keep their job often aren’t keeping up with inflation.
But both data and my feels tell me there is very strong demand for blue collar workers. Of course, things had gotten quite shitty for blue collar workers so still can’t buy a house and raise a family with a typical blue collar job. Slightly less shitty but still very shitty.
So ~everybody is mad.
That sums it up very well, I think. I know more white collar workers, so the stories I’m hearing are not good. I also agree that a lot of the people who “got ahead” were getting ahead of a very shitty position into a still shitty position.
I think what’s actually happened is that we’ve raised the bottom and the top, but the middle to upper middle has gotten squeezed in this situation. Especially those in the middle to upper middle who care about the gap between them and the lower class.
Have we actually really raised the bottom though?
Things like food insecurity and homelessness have been going up.
Feels like $15/hr is the new minimum wage even if not necessarily the law of the land. So in that respect at least I would say yes.
But does it actually go any farther?
Like, I know the numbers say the bottom did the best against inflation. But that’s overall inflation. The bottom quartile’s experience with inflation is very different than the CPI number. They’re almost all renting, and their exposure is almost entirely to basic necessities.
I think specifically lower middle class to middle class people in blue collar jobs are doing better than before, but I don’t think even they got over any significant humps financially.
I don’t know, I’d say I was middle trending to upper middle before, and now I’m lower middle - which obviously means I’m trending the wrong way for the time being. I don’t really care at all about the gap between me and people below me - I’d like to see them all get more help than me. I do care a lot about the gap between me and where I was before, as well as the gap between my former ladder up and my new ladder up.
A lot of this is the deterioration of the “American Dream.” Depending on who you ask, that’s either home ownership and a family, or it’s a potential pathway to financial independence with hard work and perseverance, or it’s an ability to live a nice lifestyle if you forego the home ownership. I personally think those things are deteriorating rapidly for those who don’t have them, and I get the sense others who don’t have them yet think that too.