I figure we should have a thread about the #1 thing I miss from Unstuck, which is sickos-yes-scrolling tweets about awful things happening to Elon Musk and his orbit.
https://twitter.com/catturd/status/1610066639982043136
YES…Ha ha ha…YES!
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Where will Tesla stock go this year? I, for one, am excited to find out!
I wish shorting didn’t have infinite risk or I would have shorted it two months ago.
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In!
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Lol you hate to see it.
lol, my phone got a news notification yesterday saying Tesla reported 40% increase in deliveries or whatever and I was like “damn, that sounds good for them”. BUTNAHHHH
Also, dunno if this ever got posted on UP but this was my favorite article about the Twitter Files and conservative bad faith more broadly:
I’m seriously starting to wonder how much Elon has in outstanding margin debt and how many shares he has left.
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I’ve been having great fun tweeting taunting shit at elon knowing that he DEFINITELY is narcissistic enough to read every. single. one.
But seriously he’s still selling. That means he hasn’t gotten clear yet…
If Tesla goes low enough maybe Elon can sell Twitter to raise the cash to take Tesla private.
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Today’s Matt Levine Elon update (quoting an external news story):
Fidelity slashed its carrying value of Twitter by 56% during the first month of Elon Musk’s ownership, according to a new disclosure.
Driving the news: Fidelity was among the group of outside investors that helped Musk finance his $44 billion takeover of the social media site, by purchasing equity. …
Fidelity’s Contrafund valued its Twitter shares at $53.47 million on Oct. 31, which was just days after Musk’s deal closed. It then revalued the shares at around $23.46 million as of Nov. 30, representing a 56% decline.
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Lol there’s no world where they think it’s only down 56%.
As of November 30. A lot has happened since then.
Someone tell me there is a non zero chance of elon losing everything. It seems like he is the fish on a heater who keeps raising the stakes and at some point will just lose it all.
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There’s a significantly higher than zero chance of Elon losing everything… but he does seem to have stopped the panic selling on 12/27. If he’s now satisfied his margin loans to the extent that he isn’t being forced to sell anymore he’s probably found the bottom for the next 15-30 days.
That being said Tesla the company is facing huge headwinds and Elon’s a fucking moron so I think he’s more likely than not going to finish out as barely a rich person.
Man he’d have to fuck up so badly to lose everything. He could lose 99 percent of his wealth and still be a billionaire. Tesla and Twitter coudl both fold and BK and close and he would still be a billionaire.
One of the problems I have with these net worth figures on the mega wealthy is that they are marked to market (because how else could you do it) and aren’t a good reflection of how much cash that person could actually get their hands on if they had to liquidate. Elon had probably the biggest delta between what he had on paper and what he could actually get of any public facing rich person IMO.
There’s a big difference between having your entire net worth in BRK.A shares vs TSLA shares. Buffett’s liquidation value is probably higher than his nominal net worth vs Elon’s liquidation value was clearly never more than 30-35% of his nominal net worth.
And let’s be clear that’s still a fuckton of money, but the risk of having a frankly overvalued net worth is that, especially in an up market people will lend you money based on your nominal net worth… and when you’re a fucking idiot like Elon that gives you the opportunity to bet more than you actually have.
Personally I think the financial markets are in for a really bumpy couple of years (really until interest rates come down) and quite a few people more sensible than Elon are going to get left high and dry because they leveraged up too hard when interest rates were 0 betting on things that have real world yields below 5%… and as we’ve already seen with Elon when those guys get margin called it gets ugly fast.
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At least Elon has his Hyperloop to fall back on if his other companies fail
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Hyperloop should have been the point where everyone realized Ol Musky was completely full of it.
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