honestly I think so many people are so mad at nate because he was “wrong” about 2016 that they just reflexively assume he’s wrong and take everything he says now in bad faith.
eg.
like, I’m not sure if this guy actually is unable to differentiate between “the publich holds view X” and “I believe X is what actually happened in reality” or if he’s just being disingeneous. maybe a little of both! And if you browse twitter, or just look at riverman’s posts here and at UP, there are tons of these!
here’s another
like, the post that is screenshotted here is LITERALLY commenting on the data! People don’t want to accept the reality that a huge chunk of the public thinks the lab leak theory is plausible and it’s nate’s fault for … (checks notes) … reading the polls
Again, I haven’t read nate’s entire oevure, so if there is a smoking gun where he says “it’s clearly a lab leak” then please point me to that
Spoiler he has nothing aside from speculation by bad actors amplified by pundits and bad headlines. Oh and opinions polls
I’ve seen tweets of his observing that bad actors exist and that opinion polls exist but I haven’t seen any where he’s advancing a bad actor as a credible source or where he implies that “opinion poll says X therefore X must be true”
like, go back to the 2016 campaign, bernie bros hated him because he said “the polling indicates that bernie is unlikely to win the nomination”
even though in 2020 before the south carolina shuffle he had bernie as the (slight) favorite to win the nomination
people seem to be implying that he’s bending the data to fit some preferred narrative he wants to push but I haven’t seen anything like that, it’s more “I don’t like what he’s saying therefore he must be wrong or doing something nefarious”
I’m not following this closely at all but I think has to do more with his tone/attitude kinda playing into the Elon Musk general thematic vibe of the press trying to advance some leftist agenda. Like it may not be any one tweet standing alone that is super problematic but in context of Musk/etc constant whining I think there some responsibility to be aware of the themes your helping propagate
No one’s disputing that a lot of people think the lab leak theory is plausible. What Nate’s doing is inventing conspiracy theories and alleging bias with zero evidence.
The simplest explanation is that people buy into the lab leak stuff because guys like Nate keep aggressively pushing it and people are basically persuadable. The narrative that the media is suppressing the truth but people see through it with folksy crowd wisdom isn’t supported by anything at all.
ok can you give me some examples of this instead of actually just telling me that for the 19th time
Here’s an example. This just seems like pure Ben Garrison talk to me
Who is the “cadre of scientists,” what “tricks” are they using, and why are they trying to “suppress discussion?” You can see the Ben Garrison cartoon already.
And why should they be “profoundly embarrassed” unless the lab leak is literally confirmed rather than it being a low confidence estimation by a one of many government agencies that don’t all agree?
ok yes this is lol nate territory for sure
Yeah, without that tweet, it’s easier to read his tweets as you did, but I’m a bit surprised you didn’t see the kerfluffle here about that particular tweet. It generated a fair amount of traffic here.
I posted that exact tweet yesterday in this very discussion!
Nate has always been a pundit. His statistical models were always over complicated and continuously tweaked until it fit what he thought was going to happen. That has been a criticism of him going back to the PECOTA vs MARCEL days. IIRC, pecota broke the moment he stopped updating it all the time and marcel the monkey (basically used a weighted average) worked just as well
rofl
“@rumpfshaker”
The Koshermart order part is way beyond the pale. What a monster.
this is 100% expected
of course a deplorable who thinks its her business what plumbing everyone has in their pants will also be looking to enforce hierarchy at the grocery store. it’s just the natural circle of life to put these inferior beings in their place and remind them of who their betters are.