In theory, but if they fuck up and the Dems have a temporary majority, Dems can immediately vote to change the rules and require a higher threshold to recall a Speaker.
If enough republicans leave to give Jeffries the gavel the the dems would have enough votes to remove the new motion to vacate rule, wouldnât they?
Of course the republicans will eventually come back and have enough votes to do anything. Jeffries would have to give up something to keep a coalition.
Iâm starting to think thereâs a real chance weâre witnessing the fracture of the GOP and perhaps the largest crack to date in the current political meta, maybe the crack that breaks it?
The GOP is basically two or three different factions right now, and they appear to be going from a tenuous ability to work together to an inability to do so even with a majority. There are the far right lunatics who want to burn it all to the ground (Jordan, Gaetz, etc), the far right conservatives who want to gut the government but not leave it totally dysfunctional - and this includes some of the first group who can be bought off, and a small handful of actual moderates.
The House has gotten to a point where the burn it down lunatics may be going all-in on this as their best chance to wield actual power instead of using leverage to steer the GOP caucus, they donât have the votes, and theyâre not giving up - which I think has the potential to break this alliance somewhat. Like the burn it down guys are having death threats made against the families of the extreme right wingers who donât want to burn it down, and then saying stuff like, âHey death threats arenât a big deal!â
And the issue here isnât that like the voting public has to punish them by electing more Democrats. Itâs that Jim Jordan probably couldnât get elected in the 20-30 most moderate districts that the GOP is in play in, and Don Bacon probably couldnât get elected in the 50-60 most extreme districts the GOP owns. So if the 10-20 most moderate and 50-60 most extreme members of the caucus are THIS at each otherâs throats, and they donât kiss and make up after, they can no longer form a governing coalition as a majority.
We were seeing signs of this to a lesser degree under Boehner, Ryan, and McCarthy, and vague comments about it being tough to hold the caucus together. We may finally be hearing the death rattle of this alignment.
If this happens, I think the two most likely paths forward are either the Don Bacon types retiring, those primaries being won by HFC-wing nutjobs, and those general elections going blue, relegating the GOP to a HFC-style minority party that just obstructs at all opportunities and canât win a majority⌠Or, the right wing media turning on the HFC types, and billionaires backing their primary challengers in a BIG way.
Or maybe both. I guess it depends on how the power brokers view their ability to block shit in the Senate. The closer the Dems get to nuking the filibuster and ramming stuff through with a trifecta, the more important it is for the wealthy to have a functional right wing party that can win and govern in the House.
This is only happening because the GOP has such a narrow 4 person majority in the house. If they had a larger majority, or were in the minority, this wouldnât be happening at all. I donât think we can draw large conclusions from it.
It is a vote against trump, because trump will see it that way. and if trump sees it that way, his pundit cronies will see it that way. and if they see it that way, the voters see it that way. Maybe these congress people are too stupid to realize it but I doubt it.