Middle Eastern Conflagration, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran

Disagree.

ok, ā€œmoreā€ equally bad war crimes?

Israel seems to have attacked an airport in Syria, presumably Iran was keeping materiel there. Extremely difficult to find reliable info now that Elon has turbofucked Twitter so much.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1712441679758639171?s=20

I think everyone hopes youā€™re right. You arenā€™t going to end up being right probably because that would require Bibi of all people practicing restraint in a very exploitable crisis/opportunity. Doesnā€™t seem in character.

When they say theyā€™re going to root out Hamas street by street thatā€™s going to involve killing a LOT of civilians. The air strikes are just the appetizer the ground assault is going to be ugly. Theyā€™re also going to destroy whatever is left of the buildings/infrastructure and render the place unfit for human habitation so that the current occupants have to leave.

And before you say Iā€™m wrong about that go look up what the clean drinking water situation in Gaza was before this happened as well as the trend of wells being destroyed to cut off access to clean drinking water. All before these atrocities, which are very severe and very good pretext to do whatever you might want to do already.

No one is minimizing what Hamas did here anywhere in this thread that I can see. At the same time itā€™s not at all unreasonable to be very concerned about how much worse the Israeli response is going to be than the provocation. Iā€™m extremely sure the civilian casualty ratio here isnā€™t going to be in the vicinity of 1:1.

My experience of having conversations with both Israeliā€™s and Palestinians about the subject is that every conversation is ā€œLook at this horror the other side didā€¦ā€ and if you ask them why the other side did it they get super mealy mouthed. That absolutely includes this time and it really truly is both sides. Both sides want to get to you first, show you horrifying absolutely true videos of the other side doing ultra violence that cannot possibly be justified, and strip every single iota of context from the situation so that you fully take their side.

I donā€™t think the Israeli response to these terrorist attacks is unforeseen or even unreasonable. At the same time I donā€™t see the terrorist attacks as some impossible to foresee situationā€¦ You oppress a few million people super hard and you strengthen any extremist groups among them. Bibi turned up the heat to the max and there was a really bad fire. Why did he get to do that? Because every time the Israeliā€™s try to make peace the Palestinians blow shit up and theyā€™ve never negotiated in good faith or reality. Round and round it goes for 70+ years.

So yeah Iā€™m not taking a side here because Iā€™m deeply unhappy that neither side confronting the level of suffering this conflict has caused most days any of us have been alive has taken it upon themselves to unilaterally end it. I think the Israeliā€™s won every military conflict and still tried harder to reach some kind of peace deal politically than the Palestinians have, but any moral high ground they might have had got spent by Bibi.

So yeah itā€™s a complicated dumpster fire with absolutely no one to root for. If you arenā€™t horrified by Israeli behavior toward the Palestinians over the last 20 years or so you drank the Koolaid and are part of the problem with the region. Which is very easy to do! Thatā€™s why the region is such a mess!

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lol, genocide is never an acceptable response to anything.

This isnā€™t some unknowable thing. There are actual legal definitions of what genocide is or isnā€™t and israel has well crossed over that line in the past and is doing so now.

In this conversation I can totally tell who looked up pictures of dead babies and who didnā€™t.

I did not.

I actively avoid images of dead babies, is anyone here seeking them out?

Alright walk me through step by step what the Israeliā€™s should do to unwind the conflict. Youā€™ve got two groups of people in the same piece of land and the Palestinians in particular are not tolerant of the idea of sharing that land with the Jewsā€¦ but have been utterly defeated militarily repeatedly.

What exactly are the Israeliā€™s supposed to do here?

Also remember the Israeliā€™s are a democracy and anything you say they should do has to survive Israeli politics.

This situation is not one that really works with black and white thinking. And at no point did I call what the Israeliā€™s did acceptable I called it predictable and reasonable. It is reasonable to do all of the oppression that has been heaped on the Palestinians by the Israeliā€™s. They wonā€™t accept they lost the war and make peace! Every time the Israeliā€™s have tried to make peace that attempt was met by military attacks on largely civilian targets. The people theyā€™re supposed to negotiate with have as a stated objective killing all the Jews in Israel lol.

But reasonable just means you could reach that conclusion with reason. It doesnā€™t mean itā€™s acceptable and it doesnā€™t mean it isnā€™t super super super evil. It clearly is and it clearly hasnā€™t helped to resolve the situation.

Thatā€™s really the core problem of this conflict 70+ years in. Everything every side is doing can be tied to some legitimate grievance by the other side. Whatā€™s needed is for both sides to sit down and negotiate some kind of settlement based on reality (meaning the Israeliā€™s won multiple wars and have the worlds 5th largest military so they arenā€™t going anywhere) and then actually stick to that agreement.

So yeah the only road out is for either Israel to complete their ethnic cleansing (likely) or thereā€™s some kind of peace process (at this point very unlikely). Thatā€™s why Iā€™m so fucking worried about whatā€™s about to happen because Hamas just handed a genocidal right wing Israeli regime an amazing excuse to massively accelerate the ethnic cleansing.

Not do a genocide

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Weā€™re all pretty emotional about this shit, letā€™s not take it out on each other here. In other news, Trump has the wildest take of all:

https://x.com/SonofHas/status/1712271543173046639?s=20

Important to note thereā€™s no clear evidence Hezbollah is involved yet.

Obviously Gaza not having food/water is a really bad thing. I know Gaza pretty limited, but does Gaza only usually have a couple days of food in their territory?

If they have any sort of reserve not sure you could immediately call potentially temporary blocking of trucks to ostensibly limit potential influx of weapons a genocide, obviously the longer a blockage goes on the more obvious Israel real intentions would be? Like certainly they could be wanting to starve them to death but seems too early to definitely say that?

After Trump fucks off and dies the GOP needs to be reminded of him every single day for decades. They cannot be allowed to memory hole Trump the way they did George W Bush.

The Israel/Lebanon border is on such a hair trigger right now itā€™s almost funny, like some guy sneezes and missile warnings go off all over.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1712468303296581832?s=20

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1712472872441245769?s=20

Like you said previously, there is no justifiable rationale for the water part.

Think of Palestinians as normal human beings and you can probably hazard a guess.

The answer Iā€™d come up with is that it ranges the gamut from doomsday preppers for just such a scenario to people keeping minimal provisions. And the doomsday preppers would be more heavily concentrated in the Hamas members.

I didnā€™t mean individuals, I meant are there food warehouses/etc in Gaza or is everything brought in then immediately sold/distributed to residents

Iā€™m assuming Hamas has a lot of control over how aid gets distributed.

Meanwhile on twoptwo

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They have artillery, missiles, and aircraft, they donā€™t have to go door to door.

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Never heard of this guy before but he seems to be a center left Israeli that predicts that the above sentiment will win out in Israel in both the short and long term:

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